#$hfc

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Blackstone, Edwards Lifesciences, HollyFrontier, Schneider National and Sempra Energy

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

Blackstone, Ticker: $BX

Blackstone, $BX, comes into the week trying to lift out of a bull flag. It has the RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD falling but positive. Look for continuation to participate…..

Edwards Lifesciences, Ticker: $EW

Edwards Lifesciences, $EW, ended the week reversing higher with the RSI also turning back higher and bullish while the MACD levels in positive territory. Look for continuation to participate…..

HollyFrontier, Ticker: $HFC

HollyFrontier, $HFC, pulled back under the 200 day SMA in July and then consolidated. It ended the week at resistance with the RSI rising toward the bullish zone and the MACD close to turning positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Schneider National, Ticker: $SNDR

Schneider National, $SNDR, comes into the week pushing back to resistance. It has a RSI rising into the bullish zone and a MACD turning positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Sempra Energy, Ticker: $SRE

Sempra Energy, $SRE, comes into the week approaching resistance with the RSI rising toward the bullish zone and the MACD about to go positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using this Get Premium link.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which noted equity markets were a mixed bag this week as the market moved into the low volume dog days of August.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its bounce in the pullback while Crude Oil consolidates in a tight range. The US Dollar Index continues to consolidate after the move to the upside while US Treasuries may be resuming their uptrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate while Emerging Markets continue to pullback toward long term support.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. The charts of the SPY and the QQQ both look great on the longer timeframe with the SPY also looking good for more highs in the short run. The QQQ looks to continue to pause and digest at its highs. The IWM continues to look like the party pooper, stuck in a long flat consolidation that is nearing 8 months long without any change in sight. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: AstraZeneca, Boeing, HollyFrontier, Nasdaq and Netflix

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

AstraZeneca, Ticker: $AZN

AstraZeneca, $AZN, rose from a low in May of last year, topping out in January. It reversed lower then and found support at the 200 day SMA into March. It gapped down mid-month and retested the May bottom before the current bounce. The RSI is rising toward the mid line with the MACD crossed up. Look for continuation to participate….

Boeing, Ticker: $BA

Boeing, $BA, started to crash land at the end of February, finding a bottom in mid-March. It has moved higher since, touching the 20 day SMA last week then stalling and pulling back Friday. The RSI is turning lower under the mid line with the MACD crossed and rising. Look for continuation to participate…..

HollyFrontier, Ticker: $HFC

HollyFrontier, $HFC, accelerated its move lower in February, finding a bottom in March. It has consolidated there and has a RSI reversing higher toward the mid line with the MACD crossed up and rising. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Nasdaq, Ticker: $NDAQ

Nasdaq, $NDAQ, had a long run higher that topped in early February. It pulled back from there, eventually bottoming in March. Since then it has bounced and is back at resistance. The RSI is making a higher high with the MACD crossing up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

Netflix, Ticker: $NFLX

Netflix, $NFLX, started higher in September last year and ran to a top in February. It pulled back from there sharply, finding support as it broke below the Bollinger Bands® in mid-March. Since then it has moved back higher and met resistance. The RSI is holding over the mid line with the MACD crossed up. Look for a push over resistance to participate…..

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis by pressing Get Premium.  

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week.  These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with only 2 trading days left in the 1st Quarter, sees equity markets sitting in bear market territory even after what were some new bull market qualifying bounces.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation in the uptrend while Crude Oil moves toward 20 year lows. The US Dollar Index continues to whipsaw with a short term downtrend while US Treasuries consolidate in their uptrend. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue the short term drift higher while Emerging Markets continue towards the lows.

The Volatility Index looks to remain extreme making the path filled with craters for equity markets. Their charts look solid in the short term after strong moves higher, but with a large swath of traders anticipating the reversal from a bear market rally anytime. The longer charts showed a sold reversal, and follow through next week could sway a lot of opinions (read money). Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: HollyFrontier, Limited, Progressive, Tractor Supply & Starbucks

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers

HollyFrontier, Ticker: $HFC

HollyFrontier, $HFC, broke above an Inverse Head and Shoulders neckline in July. It made it about halfway to the price objective before the broad market sell off pulled it lower. Since finding support it has been building a rising wedge over the neckline. This could be a reversal and continue back towards the price objective near 66. Or as rising wedges often do, break to the downside for another leg lower. The RSI is rising and crossed the mid line with the MACD about to cross up. These support more upside. Watch and react.

L Brands, Ticker: $LB

L Brands, $LB, had a strong move higher from October 2014 through to April this year. Then it pulled back over the next 5 months, but at a much slower rate. The decline retraced about 61.8% of the leg higher and then rocketed back up. It spent the last few days in a short term bull flag with major resistance from the prior high overhead. The RSI is firmly in the bullish zone and the MACD rising. Watch for a flag break to participate.

Progressive, Ticker: $PGR

Progressive, $PGR, rolled up out of consolidation in April to a double top peak in August. It fell hard with the market and has been consolidating in an ascending triangle since. With a MACD about to cross up and a rising RSI breaking the mid line it has support for more upside. Look for a break of resistance to participate.

Starbucks, Ticker: $SBUX

Starbucks, $SBUX, had a strong run higher from October 2014 as well, that ended in mid August. The spike down retraced 70% of that move, and it has been consolidating in an ascending triangle since. Friday's strong candle broke through the top of the triangle. It has support for more upside from a rising RSI that is moving above the mid line and a MACD that just crossed up.

Tractor Supply, Ticker: $TSCO

Tractor Supply, $TSCO, had a long trend higher from October 2014 interrupted by the August sell off. Since then it has formed a consolidation range, ending last week pressing towards the top. The RSI has been working higher since the drop and is pressing through the mid line. The MACD is crossed up and rising. Both support a push higher.

If you like what you see sign up here for how to trade these, more ideas and deeper analysis with better more detailed charts.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Anyone who contacts me at [email protected] and uses the code DAWG POUND in the message can get either an annual subscription for $556 (10% off) an annual subscription plus my book signed for $600.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into September Options Expiration sees a series of higher lows on the short term charts showing some promise for equities.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue lower while Crude Oil consolidates building a bull flag. The US Dollar Index is also consolidating with a short term downward bias while US Treasuries are biased lower. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets look to continue their consolidation with a bias lower.

Volatility looks to remain elevated but continuing the leak lower, with a possibility of a reversion to normal levels soon. This would lighten the bias lower for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ, and work toward no bias. The ETF's themselves are showing short term consolidation with reversal signs after a plunge. But the move out of consolidation could be in either direction so a wait and see approach with an upward short term bias is my view.

Longer term a break of consolidation to the upside would be quite bullish. The QQQ remains the strongest of the indexes with the IWM and SPY showing bigger risk to the downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

More at Dragonfly Capital

[dragonflycap]

Refining a trade in HollyFrontier Corporation

Holly Frontier, $HFC, refines petroleum and distributes the products including gasoline lubricants and waxes.  The company is based in Dallas, Texas and is the result of a merger of Holly Corporation and Frontier Oil in 2011.  

The stock got beaten down over the last half of 2014 along with the drop in Oil prices.  It made a bottom in January and rose through to the end of February.  Since then it has moved sideways in a range, with a top where it ended Friday at 45.25.

The chart shows an Inverse head and Shoulders pattern that triggered two weeks ago.  That carries a price objective to at least 57.50.  The initial move out is consolidating and a break higher would carry a Measured Move on the next leg to 49.  If you look left on the chart the current level is also resistance from October.  

There is further resistance above at 46.50 and 51 with the all time high at 51.36.  Support may come at 44.25 and 43.25 followed by 41.40 and 40 before 38.60 and 37.85.  The Inverse Head and Shoulders would be violated on a move below the right Shoulder at 35.89.  

The momentum indicators are positive.  The RSI is deep in the bullish range and rising, while the MACD is rising too.   Short interest is moderate to elevated at 6% and the company is expected to report earnings next on August 5th before the market opens.

Shifting to the options chains, the July open interest shows much more on the Put side than on the Call side, and almost all of the open interest on both sides below the current price.  This would suggest a downward bias this week.  it has weekly options as well with light open interest out to the August monthly Expiry, but again all to the downside.  

Holly Frontier, Ticker: $HFC

Trade Idea 1:  Buy the stock on a move over 45.25 with a stop at 44.  A straight stock trade.

Trade Idea 2:  Buy the stock and a August 7 Expiry 45/42.5 Put Spread (offered at 95 cents late Friday) and sell an August 47 Covered Call ($1.05 credit).  Stock with a collar through the earnings dater for protection to 42.50.

Trade Idea 3:  Buy the August 45 Calls ($2.15). A defined risk method to participate in the upside of the stock.

Trade Idea 4:  Buy the August 45 Calls and sell the July 46.5 Calls ($1.75) for a Call Diagonal.  Look to sell weekly calls each week as the previous week short calls expire. A strategy to own longer calls and sell premium from shorter calls to pay for it.

These are the types of trades given to subscribers every week. If you like what you see sign up here for more ideas and deeper analysis.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into July Options Expiration week sees the equity markets still looking vulnerable short term in their longer term uptrends.  

Elsewhere look for Gold continue to test the downside while Crude Oil also turns lower.  The US Dollar Index seems ready to move higher in its consolidation while US Treasuries are biased lower in their consolidation.  The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets are both bouncing and need to be watched carefully to see if the moves are real.  

Volatility looks to remain in the elevated range of this low level, continuing to lessen the tail wind for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ.  Their charts show the IWM looking the best short term as they all try to hold and reverse higher, while the QQQ and IWM look good longer term as the SPY is weakest.  Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

More at Dragonfly Capital

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Aflac, Advance Auto Parts, ADTRAN, HollyFrontier and UnitedHealth

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers.

Advance Auto Parts, Ticker: $AAP

Advance Auto Parts, $AAP, has been building a symmetrical triangle since August. It is testing the top with support for more upside price action from a rising RSI, and the MACD crossed up Friday. The Bollinger bands are also opening higher.

ADTRAN, Ticker: $ADTN

ADTRAN, $ADTN, is a reversal play. After bottoming last week it has bounced and filled the gap. It has a rising RSI, about to cross the mid line and a MACD that crossed up, both supporting continued upward price action.

Aflac, Ticker: $AFL

Aflac, $AFL, is another bottoming and reversal play. The strong move higher Friday came along with a RSI making a new 1 month high and a MACD about to cross up. Good reward to risk at this position.

HollyFrontier, Ticker: $HFC

HollyFrontier, $HFC, is yet another bottoming and reversal play. The Hammer Wednesday was confirmed higher Thursday with a bullish engulfing candle and it saw follow through to the upside Friday. The RSI is turned up and making a new 1 month high with a MACD that is crossing up, both supporting more upside.

United Health, Ticker: $UNH

United Health, $UNH, printed a Spinning Top doji Wednesday, confirmed it higher Thursday and followed through Friday. At resistance now it has a rising RSI on the edge of the bullish zone with a MACD crossing up, to support a push through.

If you like what you see sign up here for how to trade these, more ideas and deeper analysis.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into the week, sees equities markets looking like they may have dodged a bullet, but still needing to confirm that with a move higher. Elsewhere look for Gold to consolidate with an upward bias while Crude Oil remains biased lower, but is showing a possible bottom. The US Dollar Index looks to consolidate or resume the uptrend while US Treasuries are showing signs of a possible reversal lower. The Shanghai Composite looks ready to resume the uptrend while Emerging Markets are showing signs of a possible reversal higher. Volatility looks to remain elevated and biased to stay there despite the spike and pullback, keeping the bias lower for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. There charts show signs of reversal higher with the IWM leading, but all need to prove they want to reverse with a move higher this week, otherwise the risk is to the downside. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

More at Dragonfly Capital

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for your Monday: Bristol-Myers, CBOE, HollyFrontier, PNC and UPS

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers.

Bristol-Myers Squibb, Ticker: $BMY

Bristol-Myers Squibb, $BMY, went through a long topping pattern from November until May before a pullback to the June low. Now trending higher it is at prior resistance with support for more upside from a rising RSI and MACD.

CBOE, Ticker: $CBOE

CBOE, $CBOE, has been on the trade list recently from the breakout in August. It is setting up now to give you a chance to add or get in if you missed it then. Consolidating the move from the August break out the RSI is rising and the MACD has avoided a cross down and is turning.

HollyFrontier, Ticker: $HFC

HollyFrontier, $HFC, started rising off of a bottom at 42 in July. The first leg was shorter but the second leg a 150% extension of the first. Now it is consolidating in a bull flag with a rising and bullish RSI and a MACD that is leveling after a pullback.

PNC Financial, Ticker: $PNC

PNC Financial, $PNC, had a strong run higher form October 2013 to the early July peak. The ensuing pullback found support at the 200 day SMA and it has moved higher since. Consolidating the first leg up at the cross of the 50 and 100 day SMA's, it has support to break out higher from a rising and bullish RSI and a MACD that is also rising.

UPS, Ticker: $UPS

UPS, $UPS, had a strong run higher from February through to early June before a consolidation just over 100 and eventual pullback. That pullback found support and the stock has been rising since mid August now touching resistance at the gap down level from July for the third time, and from a higher low. The RSI is rising and on the edge of a move into the bullish zone with a MACD heading higher as well.

If you like what you see sign up here for more ideas, deeper analysis and the rest of the plan for the set ups above.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, as the kids are back to school and the adults file back into work from vacations sees the equity markets looking strong but with short term consolidation likely. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue lower but not stray much from 1300 while Crude Oil consolidated in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks strong and higher while US Treasuries are biased lower in the uptrend. The Shanghai Composite is also strong and biased higher along with Emerging Markets. Volatility looks to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts show signs of consolidation in the short run with the SPY and QQQ a bit strong on the longer timescale. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.