#$infy

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: APA, Asana, Dicks, Infosys and Murphy USA

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers:

APA, $APA, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI rising through the midline with the MACD rising but negative. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

Asana, $ASAN, comes into the week consolidating a move higher. It has a RSI in overbought territory with the MACD positive and rising. Look for a break higher out of consolidation to participate…

Dicks Sporting Goods, $DKS, comes into the week approaching resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

Infosys, $INFY, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD positive and rising. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

Murphy USA, $MUSA, comes into the week at resistance. It has a RSI in the bullish zone with the MACD flat after a pullback and positive. Look for a push over resistance to participate…

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which with just 10 trading days left in the year, saw equity markets continue to show strength on the large cap and tech front, with some weakness appearing in small caps.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue its consolidation in the uptrend while Crude Oil consolidates in the lower end of a broad range. The US Dollar Index continues the short term move to the upside while US Treasuries hold in consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks to consolidate in the uptrend while Emerging Markets continue the short term move higher.

The Volatility Index looks to remain very low and stable making the path easier for equity markets to the upside. Their charts look strong, especially on the longer timeframe, with the small cap IWM showing some downside risk. On the shorter timeframe the QQQ has been the short term leader and looks to continue while the SPY consolidates at the high and the IWM pullback looks to deepen. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

[estimize]

Estimize Roundtable: How long are investor's willing to wait for tax reform?

This week on the Estimize Roundtable, Estimize’s CEO, Leigh Drogen, and SVP of Media, Christine Short, are joined by Nick Colas, Chief Market Strategist at Convergex and  Spencer Jakab, Deputy Editor for Wall Street Journal’s Heard on the Street. The group discusses Snapchat’s initiated coverage ahead of the Q1 report, the Trump administration’s timeline for tax reform, the impact of the French elections on the markets and the student loan bubble.

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Choice Hotels, Dril-Quip, Fiserv, Infosys & JD

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers

Choice Hotels, Ticker: $CHH

Choice Hotels, $CHH, had been falling along trend support since the beginning of March. Last Monday it broke that support and was bought , printing a Hollow Red Candle, showing the intraday strength. It then rose the rest of the week closing over resistance, and making a higher high. The RSI is moving up through the mid line as the MACD climbs, both supporting more upside.

Dril-Quip, Ticker: $DRQ

Dril-Quip, $DRQ, had fallen along with Oil, with trend resistance driving it down. August accelerated that culminating in a bottom last Monday. Since then the price has rising back through resistance and over the 50 day SMA. With a rising RSI, now in the bullish zone, and rising MACD, look for more upside.

Fiserv, Ticker: $FISV

Fiserv, $FISV, has been moving higher along a rising channel since October 2014. A great long term stock. It spent most of the time in the top half of the channel, with only the 2 sell offs in October 2014 and last week driving toward the bottom. Despite the drop and recovery last week the SMA's continue to show a smooth rise higher. The RSI is back at the mid line and rising with the MACD turning up , moving towards a bullish cross. And there is room to the top of the channel for a good short term profit.

Infosys, Ticker: $INFY

Infosys, $INFY, had been moving in a very broad channel until pulling back. The bottom last Monday closed a gap from mid July and the recover closed smaller gaps higher. The last 3 days have exhibited a bullish 3 Advancing White Soldiers pattern, calling for more upside price movement. The bullish and rising RSI and the MACD turning back higher both support that case too.

JD.com, Ticker: $JD

JD.com, $JD, had built a Cup and Handle pattern over the last year. But that pattern failed when the price broke below 28 three weeks ago. The stock then retraces the entire leg higher from December with the low last Monday and finally bounced. The stock is now building energy as it consolidates under resistance. The RSI is moving back higher and the MACD is crossing up. Both would support a move higher, but wait for a break of price over the resistance line.

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into the unofficial last week of Summer sees the equity markets have dodged a bullet, but still need to prove they have the strength to continue and not get pulled lower.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue to bounce in its downtrend while Crude Oil continues higher. The US Dollar Index is biased to the upside in consolidation while US Treasuries are biased lower. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets both look to continue their bounce in the downtrends, and may turn into reversals.

Volatility looks to remain elevated keeping the bias lower for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ, despite their rebounds higher. Their charts all show signs of both promise to the upside but further risk or another turn lower. Best to keep all long trades on a tight leash. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

More at Dragonfly Capital

[dragonflycap]

5 Trade Ideas for Monday: Bloomin' Brands, Broadcom, Infosys, Varian and Zions

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers.

Bloomin' Brands, Ticker: $BLMN

Bloomin' Brands, $BLMN, has had a strong run higher off of the bottom in August 2014. Since the calendar rolled to 2015 it has been consolidating under resistance and recently got reacquainted with its 50 day SMA. Friday it tried to break higher but the weak market pulled it back down. The RSI is rising and in the bullish zone while the MACD is also rising, supporting more upside.

Broadcom, Ticker: $BRCM

Broadcom, $BRCM, has trended higher since June 2014 with a short set back in October, when the market pulled back. To start January it consolidated and gained strength rising off of the 100 day SMA and now is consolidating at resistance. The RSI is bullish and the MACD is avoiding a cross down.

Infosys, Ticker: $INFY

Infosys, $INFY, trended higher with the market since June with a hiccup in December. The last two weeks have seen consolidation in that move at the 20 day SMA. The RSI is in the bullish zone while the MACD has crossed down during the consolidation. This offers a possible trade in both directions.

Varian Medical Systems, Ticker: $VAR

Varian Medical Systems, $VAR, moved up off of the October low and consolidated for two months before rising to the latest consolidation zone. With the Bollinger Bands® squeezing a move may be imminent. The RSI is in the bullish zone but the MACD has crossed down. Be ready for it to break either way.

Zions Bancorporation, Ticker: $ZION

Zions Bancorp, $ZION, bounced at the end of January as the RSI bottomed and started higher from the oversold zone and the MACD made a new low and reversed. For the last month it has consolidated that bounce under resistance but Friday saw a test to break it higher. The RSI and MACD are rising now to support a push up and the Bollinger Bands leave some room to start.

If you like what you see sign up here for how to trade these, more ideas and deeper analysis.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into March the strength that was anticipated to close February did not appear, but weakness did not show up either.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue the short term bounce higher while Crude Oil churns in the consolidation of the downward move. The US Dollar Index seems ready to move higher again while US Treasuries are biased higher short term in the pullback. The Shanghai Composite is on the cusp of another leg higher and Emerging Markets are stalled at resistance but not showing any bias.

Volatility looks to remain subdued and may drift lower keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts are not as strong with consolidation or a pullback looking more likely in them, especially the SPY with the IWM next and QQQ strongest, holding level. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

More at Dragonfly Capital and get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades.

[allstarcharts]

The Nifty 50 Hits All-time Highs, Now What?

What a run it’s been for stocks in India over the last few years. I really love everything that we’re seeing out of that country. A year ago I was pounding the table to get long India though some of the more liquid US ETFs (see: Not All Emerging Markets Are Created Equal). While the other BRIC nations were breaking down to new lows, Brazil and Russia specifically, India was somehow breaking out to new highs. Relative strength like that simply cannot be ignored. It would be irresponsible to. Sure enough, look at India a year later and look at these disasters in Russia and Brazil. What a joke they’ve both become….

Anyway, India is our main focus today as the Nifty Fifty hits all-time highs. Here is the long-term chart showing the beautiful uptrend over the past few years within the context of a much more massive run up:

Today I simply want to point out the consolidation over the past 6-7 months since the initial explosive rally in India early last year. We’re looking at a daily bar chart of the Wisdomtree India Earning Fund $EPI which includes holdings like Reliance Industries, Infosys, Tata Motors, some Indian Banks, etc. etc. Excuse all of the spacing between the bars, but a global ETF like this that trades opposite hours to its U.S. ETF will gap up and down almost daily. With that said, look at this thing breaking out:

Notice how in December, prices briefly broke down below the bottom end of the range, only to quickly bounce back into it. That, in my opinion, was the catalyst to finally break this out to new highs. When people talk about “Emerging Markets”, it tends to be all of them as a group with different, random weightings. I do this myself. But I think that some of these are so different than others, that not only should we look at them and compare them as a group, but looking at each one on its own is important as well. For example, India looks nothing like Russia….

Based on the size of this base I think there could be a lot of upside in this name. The old saying is, “The bigger the base, the higher in space”. The measured move target alone based on the vertical length of the base takes us to 26. But I think the fact that we are talking about such an obnoxiously extended base (where I have been waiting so patiently for a resolution), can take us much much higher than 26. The 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the base is around 28.50. That looks to me like a reasonable target.

From a risk management standpoint, this is only something we are willing to be long above the highs from the past 6-7 months. Below that and we are back into this range that we do not want to be a part of. So the most important thing, to me at least, is the risk/reward. In this case, it is obviously very much skewed in favor of the bulls.

From a sentiment perspective, I think there is just way to much hate towards India right now. Our data suggests that we had historic bullish sentiment last May, which is typical of market participants being too late to the game. They loved it most at the worst possible time; at the top. They didn’t like it anywhere near as much when it first broke out in February/March (see here). So now that the India ETF has done nothing since then, they are starting to hate it again. How do you not love to see that? We are actually coming off bearish extreme levels that haven’t been seen for years. I think this breakout could be for real. I don’t hear anyone talking about. They’re too busy with the ECB and deflation and other things that don’t matter to us.

We’ll stick with price and sentiment. And this one tells us the risk/reward favors the bulls.

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