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Three Restaurant Giants' Earnings to Watch for Tuesday

Chipotle (CMG) | After Market Closes:

The Estimize community is calling for an earnings per share of $1.26 for first quarter, 1 cent ahead of WS’s estimate, and a revenue of $1.054 billion, 2 million ahead of Wall Street. Analysts at Estimize predict a 245% increase for EPS from first quarter of last year, and a year-over-year revenue growth of 26%. Chipotle’s new brand-management efforts along with various sales-building initiatives like menu innovation, simplification of restaurant operations and increased brand marketing should aid in improving guest experience and reinstate customer affinity for the Chipotle brand. This in turn should drive its top and bottom line performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Moreover, the completion of the rollout of “Smarter Pickup Times” technology to all its restaurants that offer digital ordering should further drive sales. However, it is to be noted that the first-quarter of 2017 should provide easy year-over-year comparisons as Chipotle was in the midst of its massive food-safety scandal this time last year.

What is you expecting for CMG? Put your estimate in here!

McDonalds (MCD) | Before Market Opens:

The burger giant is ready to declare its Q1 2017 earnings on Tuesday. Analysts at Estimize are seeing a consensus of $1.35 for EPS, 3 cents ahead of Wall Street, and a revenue consensus of $5.532 billion, $58 million ahead of WS. While MacDonald’s taking several steps to drive revenues especially moving towards healthier menu items, the overall weakness in the restaurant industry is likely to impact its revenue growth negatively. A month before, McDonald’s releases its long-term growth plan, which focuses improving customer experience by incorporating digital capabilities, improving delivery operations, and initiating a new 3-year target for cash return to shareholders. Its promising 3-year systemwide sales growth of 3-5% and growing operating margin from the high 20% range may not seem the most attractive to its investors.

What is you expecting for MCD? Put your estimate in here!

Panera Bread (PNRA) | After Market Closes:

Panera Bread is scheduled to report its Q1 earnings tomorrow after market closes. Estimize is seeing a consensus of earnings per share of $1.84, right in line with Wall Street’s estimate, and a revenue estimate of $718 million, approximately 2 million ahead of Wall Street. Last week, Panera Bread just confirms its definite merger with JAB holdings. Panera Bread expects to add more than 10,000 new in-cafe and delivery driver jobs system-wide by the end of 2017 as it expands delivery service to 35-40 percent of its cafes by year end. Panera Delivery is the latest way Panera is meeting consumer demand for high quality food people can trust.

What is you expecting for PNRA? Put your estimate in here!

#$MCD #$CMG #$PNRA

5 Stocks to Watch After the Market Closes Today

Walt Disney (DIS): As always ESPN subscription numbers fall front and center when Disney announces quarterly results. The multimedia sports network continues to face an uphill battle in light of cord cutting behaviors and wider adoption of skinny bundles. Operating income from Cable Networks decreased $207 million during Q4 due to decreases at ESPN and Disney Channel. Growth at Freeform (formerly ABC Family) helped offset some of these losses through lower programming and production costs, and a decrease in marketing expenses. Income from broadcasting, on the other hand, increased $60 million to $224 million, on greater program sales from shows such as Luke Cage and Quantico. However, the overall performance of media networks is still predicated on the performance of ESPN, which otherwise looks bleak.

Beyond media, performance in Studio Entertainment and Parks and Resorts continues to excel on the back of blockbuster movies that also translate to attractions at the theme parks. Studio entertainment is likely to see a huge uptake in Q1 from the roaring success of Star War Rogue One. And while the economy improves and travel trends start to pick up that plays into the hands of Parks and Resorts. Both divisions posted positive growth in the fourth quarter and remain on track to do so again.

Disney also generates a large portion of total revenue from consumer products and interactive media which includes licensed merchandise. Sales from this division saw considerable pressure last quarter as revenue dropped 15% and income declined 5%. The company quickly pointed to currency headwinds and the discontinuation of the Infinity console game business for the lackluster performance. With the dollar trending close to a short term high, it's unlikely Disney does a complete 180 this quarter.

What are you expecting for DIS? Get your estimate in here!

Gilead Sciences (GILD): Tomorrow’s report once again highlights the performance of new HIV and HBV products but above all else, the HCV franchise will draw most of the attention. In the third quarter sales of Harvoni, Sovaldi and Epclusa fell to $3.3 billion compared to $4.8 billion from a year earlier. Management blamed the decline in Harvoni and Sovaldi sales on the introduction of Epclusa in key U.S. and European market but the more likely culprit is Merck’s entry into the Hep C market. Merck’s aggressive pricing strategy stole a considerable amount of the Hep C market that Gilead once cornered.

Offsetting some of these losses was a strong performance from HIV and other antiviral products. Sales from the two jumped to $3.5 billion from $2.9 billion a year primarily due to an uptake in tenofovir alafenamide based products. This trend should provide some support in the fourth quarter as well. Gilead also recently launched its first HBV drug, Vemlidy, which should start to contribute meaningfully to the top line.

Besides the question of drug sales, Gilead face the threat that President Trump decimates drug pricing in the biotech and pharmaceutical industry. Any indication that financial performance will be hurt in fiscal 2017 from the new administration could ignite a sharp sell off tomorrow afternoon.

What are you expecting for GILD? Get your estimate in here!

Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD): Analysts expect Buffalo Wild Wings to extends its streak of positive top and bottom line comparisons, but the main concern remains same store sales. In the third quarter same store sales, a key metric for restaurants, declined 1.8% at company owned locations and 1.6% at franchise ones. In an effort to lift the crucial metric and drive traffic, the company implemented a 15 minute guarantee for lunch deals and promotional offerings. Meanwhile, new digital initiatives, remodeling existing locations, additional marketing and promotional campaigns will also help boost quarterly results. On the downside BWLD recently hiked menu prices in lieu of volatile chicken prices and the consumer spending environment still looks bleak, somewhat offsetting the positive initiatives implemented during the quarter.

What are you expecting for BWLD? Get your estimate in here!

Panera (PNRA): Despite a broad downturn for fast casuals in 2016, Panera topped analysts expectations in each of the past 3 quarters. A large portion of the company’s recent success stems from the Panera 2.0 program, menu innovation, new promotion initiatives and remodeling existing locations. The confluence of these factors reignited both revenue and earnings growth. Meanwhile a new and ongoing initiatives to remove artificial and processed ingredients from menu items should appeal to a growing consumer base of health fanatics. However, the company’s strategic efforts along with higher labor costs comes at the cost of profitability, which fell to mid single digits in the third quarter.

What are you expecting for PNRA? Get your estimate in here!

Zillow Group (ZG): Each quarter 2 key numbers stand out amongst the rest; user growth and subscriptions. In the third quarter monthly unique users topped 164 million with nearly 75% of that viewership coming from the mobile platform. Management believes that larger user base will inevitably lead to strong ad revenue and greater support on the top line. As for subscription growth, that includes revenue from its Premier Agent program, a premier service that gives real estate agents access to various tools for their business. In the third quarter the Premier Agent program generated $158.3 million in revenue, reflecting a 33% increase from the same period last year.

What are you expecting for ZG? Get your estimate in here!

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#$ZG #$PNRA #$BWLD #$GILD #$MRK #$DIS #$SPY #$^GSPC

5 Stocks to Watch After the Market Closes Tomorrow

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#$ZG #$PNRA #$BWLD #$DIS #$GILD #$MRK #$SPY #$^GSPC

Is it Time to Short this Fast Casual Leader?

Panera Bread (PNRA) Consumer Discretionary - Hotels, Restaurants, & Leisure | Reports October 25, After Market Closes

Key Takeaways:

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of $1.36 on $685.15 million in revenue, 4 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and $3 million on the top

Panera has focused on improving efficiency and quality through new initiatives such as Panera 2.0 and frequent menu innovations that don’t contain artificial ingredients

The broader pullback in the fast casual sector might be starting to catch up the bread maker

What are you expecting for PNRA? Get your estimate in here!

Panera is prepared to release its third quarter results tomorrow after the market closes. The bread maker is coming off consecutive quarter beating on both the top and bottom line when its competitors have struggled. Revenue growth is still below seeing a marked deceleration that has investors worried about the state of the sector. Panera was the bellwether in the sector that only until recently wasn’t impacted by the broader draw down. Analysts are expected a slight pullback this quarter on the back of weak consumer spending and higher operating costs

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of $1.36 on $685.15 million in revenue, 4 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and $3 million on the top. Compared to a year earlier that reflects a 6% increase in earnings and 3% in sales. Like earnings, shares have remained relatively flat, trading sideways for the majority of the year. Historically the stock tends to do the same immediately through the print to 30 days following a report. Panera has remained resilient in spite of a broader pullback in the fast casual sector. The bread maker remains dedicated to improving efficiency and quality to better meet its customers needs. This includes the recent move to only serve “Clean” bacon as opposed to what is found at McDonald’s. “Clean” simply insists that food doesn’t contain artificial ingredients while also shedding some light on the standards that Panera holds themselves too.

Meanwhile the continued rollout of Panera 2.0, frequent menu innovations and new store designs have started to yield positive results. With stores running now running more efficiently, we have started to see sales edge higher. However these new initiatives come at a cost to profitability. Converting every store to the new system along with renovations and rising wages certainly takes its toll on margins. On top of this consumer spending in the U.S. continues to trend down, putting pressure on traffic and comps for the quarter. Do you think PNRA can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Photo Credit: samantha celera

#$PNRA #$MCD #$CMG #$SPY #$^GSPC

Is it Time to Buy Chipotle Ahead of Earnings?

Chipotle Mexican Group, Inc. (CMG) Consumer Discretionary - Hotels, Restaurants, & Leisure | Reports October 25, After Market Closes

Key Takeaways:

The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings per share of $1.66 on $1.09 billion in revenue, 5 cents higher than Wall Street on the bottom line and right in line on the top

Chipotle is almost a year removed from its first health scare and has yet to fully recover

The burrito chain has hit the ground running on promotional campaigns which include, Chiptopia, free kid’s meals and student discounts

What are you expecting for CMG? Get your estimate in here!

Chipotle is scheduled to report third quarter results tomorrow after the market closes. The burrito chain’s troubles have been well documented since its first health scare nearly one year ago. Since then, earnings and revenue have plummeted while share prices continue to edge down. The majority of this past year, and the quarter to be reported, CMG has been playing damage control and attempting to rebuild its reputation. Analysts aren’t convinced that a handful of marketing campaigns can make consumers forget about the numerous health scares, as expectations continue edge down ahead of the report.

Analysts at Estimize are calling for earnings per share of $1.66, 63% lower than a year earlier. That estimate has decreased 9% since Chipotle’s most recent report in July. Revenue for the period is estimated to drop 9% to $1.09 billion, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of negative top line growth. Shares are down over 40% since the first health scare broke and should continue to do so through tomorrow’s report. In the second quarter comparable restaurant sales decreased a 3.6% on a 16.6% decline in total revenue. In an effort to regain customers, Chipotle has hit the ground running with new promotional campaigns and marketing initiatives. Some of these include Chiptopia which rewards customers for frequent visits throughout the summer. More recently, the company launched free kid’s meals on Sundays and complimentary beverages for students.

These new marketing initiatives are not only expected to be unsuccessful but have also come at the cost of profitability. The costs associated with running campaigns to drive sales typically put pressure on margins. Meanwhile, a broader pullback is beginning in the fast casual space with popular names like Shake Shack starting to show weakness. Any external pressures will only compound Chipotle’s losses, as they struggle to win back customers. Do you think CMG can beat estimates? There is still time to get your estimate in here!

Photo Credit: Brian Wilkins

#$CMG #$PNRA #$SHAK #$SPY #$^GSPC

5 Stocks to Watch After the Market Closes Today

Apple (AAPL): The iPhone continues to be Apple’s biggest catalyst, accounting for two thirds of its revenue in any given quarter. The phone has largely struggled in the past year due to the limited appeal of the iPhone 6s and increasing competition. However, the recent release and success of the iPhone 7 have put many of those concerns to rest. Sales of the phone have gotten off to an incredible started and now account for 43% of all iPhone sales recorded in the quarter. The phone was only available for the final two weeks of Q3, making this an even more remarkable feat. New found optimism around the newest phone have pushed shares up 17% in the past 3 months. Prior to the launch Apple was expected to be a big drag on earnings season, and they very well could be if the hype isn’t reached on Tuesday.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): In the second quarter comparable restaurant sales decreased a 3.6% on a 16.6% decline in total revenue. In an effort to regain customers, Chipotle has hit the ground running with new promotional campaigns and marketing initiatives. Some of these include Chiptopia which rewards customers for frequent visits throughout the summer. More recently, the company launched free kid’s meals on Sundays and complimentary beverages for students.

Panera Bread (PNRA): Panera has remained resilient in spite of a broader pullback in the fast casual sector. The restaurant chain remains dedicated to improving efficiency and quality to better meet its customers needs. This includes the recent move to only serve “clean” bacon as opposed to what is found at McDonald’s. “Clean” simply means that food doesn’t contain artificial ingredients while also shedding some light on the standards to which Panera holds themselves.

Meanwhile the continued rollout of Panera 2.0, frequent menu innovations and new store designs have started to yield positive results. With stores now running more efficiently, we have started to see sales edge higher. However these new initiatives come at a cost to profitability. Converting every store to the new system along with renovations and rising wages certainly takes its toll on margins. On top of this, consumer spending in the U.S. continues to trend downward, putting pressure on traffic and comps for the quarter.

Pandora (P): Pandora is working on several new projects that could potentially drive long term growth. In September the company announced Pandora plus, an ad free radio experience for $4.99 per month. The new services provides greater offline freedom than any other paid service. Also, as a part of the strategy, Pandora will undertake greater strategic acquisitions and partnerships. It most recently struck a deal with 3 major music labels that will help reduce some of the content costs. There’s no denying that Pandora is making headway at returning to profitability, but if it doesn’t happen soon, investors will continue to abandon ship.

Juniper Networks (JNPR): Juniper is coming off a better than expected second quarter, reporting a beat on both the top and bottom line. While it surpassed the Estimize consensus, growth rates declined from the previous quarter. The top line recorded flat growth while earnings dropped by 6%. This can be largely attributed to increasing competition, global uncertainty and waning demand for cyber security products. Many of these aren’t specific to the second quarter and should continue to take their toll on future quarters.

To offset these losses, Juniper is restructuring some of its operations in the cloud and security space. Putting in greater efficiency controls tend to drive margins higher, but given the current state of affairs in the space, it's doesn’t appear that these problems involve a quick fix. Tomorrow’s report from Juniper along with FFIV and FTNT later in the week will set the tone for the cybersecurity space this earnings season.

How do you think these names will report? Be included in the Estimize consensus by contributing your estimates here!

#$AAPL #$CMG #$PNRA #$MCD #$P #$JNPR #$SPY #$^GSPC #$FFIV #$FTNT

These 3 Stocks Won’t Taste Good this Earnings Season

The turn of the decade featured the creation of the fast casual sector that fuses the speed and efficiency of fast food with quality of casual dining. Chipotle is typically credited with starting this trend and also its most recent struggles. In late 2015 the first of many health scares broke out at a Chipotle restaurant in the United States causing a freefall in sales and the stock. While other operators haven’t had it as bad, there is still an evident slowdown occurring throughout the space. Popular names like Shake Shack and Noodles & Co have been hammered this year for consistently delivering decelerating growth. Early signs appear as if these trends will continue as we head into third quarter earnings season.

Chipotle (CMG) Consumer Discretionary – Hotels, restaurants & Leisure

Chipotle is still having trouble getting out from under the numerous health outbreaks starting in late 2015. The burrito chain which was once heavily praised as revolutionizing the fast casual sector is now largely an afterthought to a catalogue of other food chains, one being Shake Shack. Amidst the turmoil, earnings and traffic trends have taken a dramatic downturn. Last quarter comparable restaurant sales decreased a 3.6% on a 16.6% decline in total revenue. In an effort to regain customers, Chipotle has hit the ground running with new promotional campaigns and marketing initiatives. Some of these include Chiptopia which rewards customers for frequent visits throughout the summer. More recently, the company launched free kid’s meals on Sundays and complimentary beverages for students. While Chipotle continues to win back the hearts of its once loyal customers, investors have hammered the stock. Shares are down 14% year-to-date and 36% in the past 12 months.

Shake Shack (SHAK) Consumer Discretionary – Hotels, restaurants & Leisure

In its early days on the market, many investors were convinced that Shake Shack was well on its well to replacing Chipotle as the new fast of fast casual. Thanks to a string of slower than expected quarters those notions have receded. The burger chain has struggled to sustain high growth and rapid expansion as it goes through the maturation process. These growing pains are likely to continue for the near future until revenue and margins are commensurate with its value. At the moment the stock is considered well overvalued given what they deliver quarter after quarter. Shake Shack shares have fallen 17% year to date and nearly 27% in the past 12 months.

Panera (PNRA) Consumer Discretionary – Hotels, restaurants & Leisure

Panera has been the most resilient across the fast casual sector. The bread maker remains dedicated to improving efficiency and quality to better meet its customers needs. This includes the recent move to only serve “Clean” bacon as opposed to what is found at McDonald’s. “Clean” simply insists that food doesn’t contain artificial ingredients while also shedding some light on the standards that Panera holds themselves too. Meanwhile the continued rollout of Panera 2.0 is expected to enhance in store productivity. Still expectations are slightly muted heading into its third quarter earnings report. Analysts at Estimize are calling for earnings per share of $1.37 on $685.84 million in revenue. Compared to a year earlier this represents a 9% increase on the bottom line and 4% on the top.

How do you think these names will report this week? Be included in the Estimize consensus by contributing your estimates here!

Photo Credit: Mike Mozart

#$NDLS #$CMG #$SHAK #$PNRA #$MCD #$SPY #$^GSPC

5 Trade Ideas for Tuesday: Abbott Labs, Alexion Pharma, Lear, M&T Bank and Panera

5 Trade ideas excerpted from the detailed analysis and plan for premium subscribers

Abbott Laboratories, Ticker: $ABT

Abbott Laboratories, $ABT, spent two months consolidating near 46 before falling to its lows in February. From there it trended higher 2 months before a crash down at the end of April. The trend lower after the dump exhausted mid May and it started back higher. Now the RSI is pushing through the mid line and the MACD is crossed up and rising. With the Bollinger Bands® opening look for continuation to participate in the upside.....

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Ticker: $ALXN

Alexion Pharmaceuticals, $ALXN, pulled back from a move higher in December to a February low. After a small bounce it dropped to a lower low in March before wit found what may be the bottom. A rise through April printed a higher high and the pullback into May a higher low. Last week saw it move above resistance and nearly close the gap. With the RSI rising and near the bullish zone and the MACD moving higher it has support for more upside. Look for continuation to participate to the upside.....

Lear, Ticker: $LEA

Lear, $LEA, had a sharp decline in January that slowed in February finally bottoming mid month. It has rebounded from there in a few steps higher. This left the price at the end of last week testing prior resistance from May after a quick revisit to the 50 and 100 day SMA's. Friday started a push higher. The RSI and MACD are bullish and rising supporting more upside. Look for continuation to participate in that upside.....

M&T Bank, Ticker: $MTB

M&T Bank, $MTB, started the year to the downside in a steep decline. Since finding a bottom in January it has slowly trended higher in a wide range. The high in April closed the January gap and then it pulled back to a higher low. The reversal now sees the price at resistance again. With a rising and bullish RSI and a MACD that crossed up and is rising there is support for more upside. Look for a break of resistance to participate.....

Panera Bread, Ticker: $PNRA

Panera Bread, $PNRA, had only a minor pullback in January. And since then it rocketed up to new highs at 220 in March. It has consolidated since then, hitting resistance and then pulling back to higher lows. The RSI is in the bullish zone and rising and the MACD is crossed up and rising supporting more upside. Look for a break of resistance to participate to the upside.....

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which as the markets head into the Memorial Day Weekend and the unofficial start of Summer, equities are looking strong, but not quite free of caution.

Elsewhere look for Gold to continue lower while Crude Oil continues to the upside. The US Dollar Index looks to improve while US Treasuries continue to consolidate. The Shanghai Composite is also in consolidation mode but with a downward bias while Emerging Markets are biased to the upside in the short term.

Volatility looks to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF's SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts also suggest more upside, and are stronger looking on the weekly timeframe, with rising pennants on the daily timeframe giving minor caution of a short term pullback or consolidation. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad'em well.

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#$ABT #$ALXN #$LEA #$MTB #$PNRA #$SPY