The Thieves Guild During and After the Great War
So this might be a bit wild and crazy, but I have a new Skyrim theory thanks to the thieves guild centric fic I’m working on:
Gallus (our dear old guildmaster) was in Markarth studying Falmer lore right up until he died - as far as we know, anyway. His journals and all other information on that subject definitely indicate that he spent quite a while working on THAT little pet project.
But that opens up a question, considering what else was happening at the time (roughly 25 years before Skyrim) - especially in Markarth.
Aka the Great War... and the Markarth Incident.
Hghlights from that section of the timeline:
4E 174: The Reach and Markarth fell to the Reachmen during the Forsworn Uprising and became an independent kingdom.
4E 175: The White-Gold Concordat was drawn up and the Great War came to an end. (Also, all the Elder Scrolls housed in the libraries of the White-Gold Tower vanished and were scattered across Tamriel by unknown means.)
4E 176: Ulfric Stormcloak and his militia retook the Reach and Markarth and the Stormcloaks were founded. Notably, this is also the year Gallus died.
If Gallus really was in Markarth right before his untimely death, this means he could have been there when these things were happening. And the Elder Scrolls thing might seem like a random thing to bring up but it’s not like a master thief has never broken into the Tower to steal a Scroll before...
(This is definitely the most tinfoil-hat part but yes I am saying the Grey Fox could have had a hand in making sure the Scrolls didn’t end up in the wrong hands.)
Back to the Skyrim faction, though -
There are two more key bits of information that play into this. One being that Maven Black-Briar is quite openly allied with the Thalmor, which is a pretty direct line of contact between them and the Thieves Guild. We don’t know when that alliance was forged, but it’s certainly plausible that she would have made this connection shortly after the war’s end, when they became a major influence.
Which brings us to that last thing - the Skeleton Key.
Mercer stole this shortly before he murdered Gallus. This article that critiques the whole questline brings up some good points about Mercer. Let me highlight this point he made:
Mercer supposedly stole the key because he was greedy and wanted wealth, but instead of robbing the guild blind and running off somewhere when it was still a major power he stuck around leading it until it was floundering. Why?
Maybe, just maybe, it has something to do with the Thalmor.
Now, I don’t think Maven or the Thalmor know about the key itself - but it seems unlikely that they wouldn’t know about Mercer’s rather unique talents. And the Thalmor have proven themselves rather difficult to hide from. Even an indirect tie to them through his benefactor might be enough to scare Mercer into staying put and doing everything Maven wants him to.