World Team Speculation: Take 7
Note: team will be announced on September 17. Wow, the players have changed since this winter.
S. Biles
K. Ross
M. Skinner
A. Locklear
M. Kocian
M. Desch
A. Baumann (1st alt.)
B. Dowell (2nd alt.)
The top three are locks, and then it gets tricky. I think that they would be nuts not to bring Locklear for bars only, given that she won Pan Ams and can break 15 internationally (and that was without her max D-score). Biles made the event finals last year, and the US might be deep enough on bars for her not to compete them in team finals. Crazy.
Speaking of Kocian, she was on my speculative team five months ago. She would be a lock if she did the AA, I think. Or if she had won the beam finals at Pan-Ams. But as is, the team needs a lead-off beam routine in the final and she is the most obvious option. Plus she's strong on bars, and it's worth it to amp up the scores there as much as possible.
Then it gets tricky. In my opinion, Baumann is actually on the team if she can do the AA, or three events (no need on bars). If so, she's great on beam and solid on floor and even vault. She would be an excellent fit. But if she only has beam, that would be an issue on a six-athlete team. They get a bigger one-event boost from Locklear, and Kocian can at least do two events. Thus ...
Desch is on my team for now because she does the AA. If Baumann does not have floor and vault, the US would have to put up only three athletes on those events in prelims. Doable, but so risky. It's one thing to have an athlete who is not ideal on vault -- it's another to have an athlete who does not currently have a vault. Plus Desch was solid at Pan-Ams. She was 5th in the AA, top 6 everywhere but beam, and a floor finalist.
Now, Desch likely would only compete in prelims at Worlds, but it's worth it to have someone in this back-up role. Often due to injuries, the USA has gone to Worlds with two gymnasts who could not do the AA (Liukin and Sacramone in 2006, Sloan and Sacramone in 2010), but not with three. And I don't think that they want to start now.
Dowell could mix things up by competing AA at camp, which she did say was a possibility, I think. But given that she hasn't done that since the American Cup, she's my non-traveling alternate for now.
I actually came up with this scenario before looking at the nominative list (which can change, but tends to be predicative). The main question mark is that sixth spot of course. It's possible that Locklear is the alternate, like Anna Li in 2011, but that wouldn't be my choice.
Assuming this is the team, I would do this line-up for finals:
VT: Ross, Skinner, Biles
UB: Kocian, Ross, Locklear
BB: Kocian, Biles, Ross
FX: Ross, Skinner, Biles














