#2016market

[argumate]

yes basically this means @wirehead-wannabe and @xhxhxhx are too big to fail and are getting a bail out, moral hazard out the wazoo folks!

but you know what they say: if you owe someone a thousand dollars you have a problem, but if you owe someone a million dollars then they have a problem.

[argumate]

I want to try and normalise the outcomes on the prediction market by assuming that everyone began with equal capital (say $1000) and that debts greater than this will pay out at pennies on the dollar, equivalent to losing players declaring bankruptcy, basically.

However, the order this cascading chain of bankruptcies affects the final result!

This is because even losing players typically have some income from successful bets which they can use to partially pay off the unsuccessful bets, as well as their initial capital.

I think it might be possible to write a big matrix of simultaneous equations that describes the final outcome in terms of how much every player owes every other player, and solving that should give a unique solution, maybe.

[argumate]

The market leaderboard now shows creditors and debtors for each player, and gosh it’s a tangled web of overlapping debts.

http://argumate.com/market/players/

[argumate]

shout out to @shacklesburst for the beautiful graphs

and all the players for playing

and the unpredictable 100 million Americans who provided valuable voting data

[argumate]

I’ve updated the market player leaderboard so you can click on each player and see what they gained or lost money on; the data is still sparse at the moment but it’s a start.

some highlights:

pyramidenpapist winning $2.4 million on Trump victory @polyaletheia winning $2.6 million on Trump victory @afonsoihenriques winning $1.3 million on Trump victory @neoliberalism-nightly taking $175k on Trump primary @nanoishuge taking $233k from Ted Cruz primary, shorting I presume :) @utilitymonstermash and @somnilogical cleaning up nicely

some lowlights:

@illidanstr losing badly on Trump, Cruz, and Rubio @xhxhxhx taking a pounding on Clinton, Cruz, and Trump @wirehead-wannabe betting $3.7 million on Trump losing, oops.

good times my friends, good times.

[argumate]

so anyway if anyone was wondering how effective prediction markets are at integrating all available information using the wisdom of crowds, here are the price movements of our local market on election day:

as you can see, we successfully predicted the outcome of the election some hours after it was a foregone conclusion.

success! someone page Robin Hanson

[shacklesburst]

makes for cool graphics tho

[argumate]

@somnilogical is busy sucking up all the mispriced Trump and Clinton contracts on the market; Robin Hanson is going to be very disappointed in you all if the election is over before the prices converge to reality.

http://argumate.com/market/