Hello, I would like to know what will happen tomorrow if the motion is voted negative? and in this case will there be strikes in paris? and also are the blockades in the universities useful, or are the gatherings more effective?
Well, there is a fair chance it won't be adopted anyhow, since the number of right-wing M.P.s willing to sign in their name is likely to be insufficient to garner the required 287 votes.
You see, the historical major party on the Right—roughly speaking, it corresponds to the English Tories or the Republicans in the U.S.—which was founded by national monument General de Gaulle (the French Churchill, though I'd argue a lot less conservative in the end than Sir Winston was), barely survived the last presidential election: from nearly a quarter of the votes back in 2017, it dropped to a shocking 4.78% in 2022. The few people who stayed are basically fossils willing to be faithful to le parti du Général, whereas the ones that fled left spread between Macron's camp and Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National.
To put it succinctly, the Republicans (the name of the party since the very Atlantist former President Nicolas Sarkozy changed it from U.M.P.) are dead afraid they'd lose what they managed to scrap up during the legislative elections of 2022, which designated députés for each constituency, for a total of 577 members or Parliament in the National Assembly. For decades, the Republicans had collected a vast amount of seats; during the previous legislature, they had 112 of them. Since last year, they only got 61.
Should the motion de censure be adopted this time (it's not the first one this session, but the rest were rejected, chiefly because of L.R.), the government will fall: the Republicans will have to run for office again, when their popularity is at an all-time low as they've appeared to compromise and pactise with the government. Indeed, even though they're officially part of the opposition, they've consistently voted in favour of the presidential majority—and their electors have noticed, and not necessarily appreciated.
In a superb, very droll, but also very fiendish move, the leader of the far-right parliamentary group in the Assembly made an official announcement to promise the Republicans that in case they voted the motion (this time it's being proffered by the very benign, very moderate centrists at the L.I.O.T. group so that everyone could vote it, as the Left wouldn't vote any motion concocted by the R.N.), the R.N. would not run candidates against any of L.R.'s own in the upcoming legislative elections...
Since the crowds that have been rioting for three days and counting keep clamouring for M.P.s to vote the motion to destitute the government, I reckon the uprising will only intensify should it fail to pass nonetheless. As for the strikes, people have been on strike since January. On Tuesday 7th March, they broke a record for the number of protesters in the streets (3.5 million across the country), but most of all, workers have been striking in all sectors with their best efforts—the problem being the sheer state of everybody's finances after two disastrous lockdowns during Covid, plus an aggravating number of ill-advised governmental decisions.
This is no secret, though, the one thing that ever could bend a government, the one true democracy, is the strike. At this scale, we're talking general, unlimited striking, to paralyse a country's infrastructures and industry, and therefore its economy. In France, that represents about 2 billion euros per day. That means cutting supply for shareholders and industry captains, the great capitalists who alone have the power to tell Macron to back off and retire his own bill.
So the real question is, will people be able to prolong and extend the strike, when Macron is evidently determined to letting things go till they rot and the strikers can't hold it any longer. It's also possible that people rioting too close for the personal comfort of wealthy folk in the nicer neighbourhoods may prompt some to ask for appeasement and compromise. By the way, did you know Emmanuel Macron will welcome King Charles in the palace of Versailles next Monday? I do hope some people can take a hint.
