#adam frisch

[facialhairy]

Adam Frisch

[dontmean2bepoliticalbut]

[iwriteaboutfeminism]

[enny43]

Let's talk about Colorado's 3rd congressional district.

Lauren Boebert and Adam Frisch are locked in a ridiculously close election in a race a lot of people are watching very closely. Seeing Boebert unseated would be a huge win and may turn out to be crucially important in a midterm the Dems (shockingly) still have a chance to take the House in. It has been razer thin for several days, and over a long lapse in reporting, Fisch lead by less than 70 votes with ~90% of the vote in.

As of right now, Boebert holds a lead of 1,136 votes with about 98% of the votes counted. It might take until next Thursday for the remaining votes to be counted and a winner declared, as there are an estimated 5,898 votes still to be counted. This does not include overseas and military votes or ballots that need to be cured, but we'll get to that.

First lets address a question many people have:

Why is this taking so long?

The short answer is, it's not. The main reason it seems to be taking longer than most races is directly related to how close the race actually is. See when news media "call" races, they are actually just projecting the winner based on the possibilities in remaining math. If it becomes reasonably impossible for a certain candidate to win, they call the race. The projected loser may even concede at this time. But that is not an official result, nor does the counting stop at that point. Just like in CO-3, counting continues following the guidelines set by the state to tabulate an official result. This race only hasn't been called yet because with the remaining votes, either candidate can still win. Colorado also has a gold-standard level election system.. so we can expect counting to take a little longer due to such a high percentage of ballots there being mail-in (Colorado sends ballots to all voters by default)

As far as the timeline goes, this is not abnormal.

So what are Adam Frisch's odds of winning and how can we calculate them? This is a more complicated answer, but I'll do my best to keep it simple.

As I said, there are an estimated 5,898 votes remaining to be counted. The bulk of them (2,365) come from Pueblo County which favors Frisch by 3.3%, and another large share (700 votes) comes from Pitkin County which favors Frisch by 29.2%

If all math followed those numbers, this would be a pickup of 565 votes for Adam Frisch. Boebert also has an advantage in Mesa County of 7.8% where there are 726 estimated votes remaining. This would give her a pickup of ~112 votes. In the remaining counties where there are less than 300 votes remaining to be counted, we can estimate that the votes would mostly cancel out, with a slight edge for Frisch.

All the math with these smaller counties included points to Frisch coming up short by about 770 votes (this would still fall in the range of an automatic recount).. but this does not account for all the outstanding ballots.

There are still an indeterminate number of absentee ballots from overseas and military votes to count, in addition to provisional ballots that may have been cast on Election Day (Colorado has same-day voter registration, so these are uncommon).. and there is also a curing period for ballots that may have had a mistake and need to be verified (such as someone forgetting to sign the envelope when mailing their ballot in)

We can expect the military and overseas ballots to favor Frisch. Not only does the military slightly lean Dem as it is, Southern Colorado is home to a lot of active duty Air Force which has an even more liberal tilt than the military broadly. As for the cured ballots, it's hard to say.. but my intuition tells me Democratic voters would be more energized and likely to fix their ballots by the deadline (there's also a lot of outreach being done to help people through this process, something I imagine the Boebert camp will be less capable of doing)

Are there any guarantees the remaining votes will follow the trend exactly? Of course not. They may favor one candidate or the other to a greater degree than the averages represent. Without knowing how many outstanding ballots there are from the military, overseas, and cured counts.. it is fundamentally impossible to know how this race will turn out. What I can say is not to expect many updates between now and next week. This one is going to come down to the wire, and whatever candidate ends up winning will do so by a very tight margin. No matter the result, I expect a recount will be triggered leading us to even more waiting to find out the official results.

My suggestion to everyone is to be patient and let this process play out. I have no reason to be worried about the results of this race, which is already much closer than anyone expected it would be going into Election Day. After all, CO-3 is an R+6 district. The race being this close is something no one expected.

Here's a chart with all of the data I discussed:

[melishade]

So, if you don’t know (or somehow been sleeping under a rock), the Midterms has been happening in the United States. Some losses were expected, Some victories were won, all in all, could’ve been a lot worse.

BUT! The most unexpected race to happen as of this moment is this:

Do you know how FUCKING CLOSE that is?! It’s by 64 votes!!!! This race is going to be decided by 64 votes!!!! Is there going to be a recount?! Possibly! But this is so fucking intense!

So when people say they don’t vote because they think it doesn’t matter, they are lying to themselves!!!!!! YOUR VOTE FUCKING MATTERS!!!!!! 

[whzzrbrwn]

in case anyone is feeling like their vote doesn’t really count right now, adam frisch is beating lauren boebert (a seat that boebert was projected to have 97:3 chance of winning) in colorado’s district 3 by literally 64 votes.

so in case nobody’s told you today:

your.

vote.

matters.

[tvnacity]

This shit is crazy. They can’t call this race even though 99% of the votes are in because the margin between these candidates is SIXTY FOUR VOTES. Never believe people who say your one vote doesn’t matter

[juicetrump2]

Great interview with Adam FRISCH Qbert’s Democrat opponent, who is within 0.5% of WINNING the District 3 Colorado House seat. Frisch is the polar opposite of Qbert—smart, clever, thoughtful, calm, pragmatic, and sensible.

One of his campaign themes was “Stop the Circus!”

Spot On!

[20:12]