Canada’s Aging Labour Force Threatens COVID Recovery and Future Prosperity
"[T]he labour force of the future will be quite different from the past due to immigration and aging. Immigrants will account for all of Canada’s future population increase, and immigrants have historically chosen to settle in only a few large cities. Canada’s aging population has several implications. While many will retire, others will stay active but only on their own terms, including flexible hours and more part-time work and self-employment. This will make finding and keeping workers challenging for large employers, especially in the union-dominated public sector. The greater problem for our society is therefore more likely to be chronic labour shortages than mass unemployment caused by automation and technology."
"However, as noted in a new study published by the Fraser Institute, a slowdown in labour force growth is not inevitable. Labour force growth accelerated between 1996 and 2006. At that time, severe labour shortages in parts of the country led employers to offer higher wages and recruit groups previously overlooked (such as the disabled and older workers), resulting in higher labour force growth and a more diverse workplace without government intervention. In western Canada at the peak of the oil boom in 2008, employers adopted a number of creative means to entice workers to join the labour force, delay retirement and work longer hours to supply the required labour. If future labour force growth does not meet requirements, employers may be just as creative in finding the labour input they need."
"But again, labour force growth in not inevitable. And Canada can also influence other determinants of growth, namely the stock of capital and productivity. On the capital front, several policies could help raise investment, including lowering effective tax rates, easing regulatory restrictions, promoting internal trade, encouraging more competition and business formation, and allowing resource developments (including pipelines) to proceed. It’s even easier to improve productivity growth. A wide range of existing technologies have the potential to boost productivity including robotics, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, the 'Internet of things,' advanced wireless technologies, 3D printing and driverless vehicles. The pandemic clearly accelerated the adoption of some technologies, especially those related to communications and online banking."
Fraser Institute News Release, May 3, 2021: "Canada’s aging labour force threatens COVID recovery and future prosperity," by Philip Cross
Fraser Institute, April 22, 2021: The Implications of Slowing Growth in Canada’s Labour Force by Philip Cross (13 pages, PDF)
Photo Source: (2021). The Implications of Slowing Growth in Canada’s Labour Force [Illustration]. Fraser Institute. https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/implications-of-slowing-growth-in-canadas-labour-force