SOLID 2015: Possibilities and Perils on the Way to the Future
Sound filled the enormous hall, ethereal and technical, familiar and mysterious. The 2015 SOLID conference, a celebration of the increasingly blurred lines between software, hardware and biology, was ushered in by The Dervishes, a room-size instrument created by Andy Cavatorta, designer, inventor and like so many others here, an MIT Media Lab alum. True to its Sufi inspiration, The Dervishes, a series of tubes capped by plastic funnels that could have come from the local hardware store, whirled in circles at computer-programmed speeds, making music in a most analog way: through the physics of wind.
Software and hardware connected to biology. Our biology. Sound waves lapped at ear drums and reverberated through bodies. Stray thoughts paused their morning pirouettes. We were (at)tuned, ready to be dazzled and awed by the no-longer-impossible, the inevitable and the next.
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In just its second year, the SOLID conference has doubled in size to 1,800 attendees, packing dozens of presentations. The companion trade show was filled with vendors offering everything from Artificial Intelligence services (IBM Watson) and enterprise-level Internet of Things support (Cisco) to warehouse robots (Fetch), space satellites (Planet Labs), DIY synthetic biology kits (Synbiota), design and innovation insights (Fjord) and custom 3D printed shoe insoles (Sol). It was sprawling, eclectic, down-the-rabbit-hole fascinating, yet if there was a unifying theme, it was about the opposite of solid: permeability. Trends are converging, disciplines overlapping and business models morphing.
A SOLID “Pop-up Factory” set up on the trade show floor churned out wristband sensors (attendees could click wrists and the sensors would glow a pleasing green to indicate shared interests). It took six teams from three countries spanning two hemispheres just eight weeks to pull off. Long after the wristband itself has been relegated to the swag heap, the lessons learned from its telescoped production process—which included the use of 3D printer “farms,” trips to Shenzhen factories and a local assembly crew hired at the last minute via Craig’s List—will resonate.
In a very real sense, we are at a crossroads:
While robots and pervasive computing are rebooting science, an old copyright law threatens to leave smart devices chronically vulnerable to security flaws, quashing innovation.
While advances in synthetic microbiology, galloping along at a rate estimated to be as much as 5 or 6x Moore’s Law, make it possible to design and build microbes with speedy ease, biology writ large is in crisis: the planet’s sixth mass extinction is well underway.
While breakthroughs in digital manufacturing and robotics promise dramatic gains in efficiency and quality, uncomfortable questions are being raised about the future of work for humans.
Even the basics of how we interact with computers is shifting as screens give way to the “invisible interface” of objects and places (to borrow a phrase from innovation consultant Rob Wolcott). Technologist and SOLID presenter Linda Stone has spent years analyzing how our screen-dominated lives have reprogrammed us, leading to states of “continuous partial attention” and bouts of “screen apnea.” Could the transition to gestures, speech and other ways of interacting with embedded computers be designed to make us healthier and more engaged?
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“What happens when things wake up?” asks Mickey McManus, designer, innovation consultant and futurist. “How do we shape the world of networked matter? How are we going to design ecologies?” McManus, co-founder of MAYA Design and co-author of Trillions: Thriving in the Emerging Information Ecology, is currently trying to answer such questions as a Visiting Research Fellow at Autodesk.
His project, called Primoridial (hat tip to the primordial soup that gave rise to life in Earth’s ancient oceans), focuses on the confluence of three trends:
The infrastructure of “the trillion node network,” as McManus calls it, was laid decades ago when microprocessors began replacing mechanical components in consumer products. It was a shift driven by simple economics: It is much cheaper to design software as one-time expense than to design, then fabricate physical parts, which are calculated as per unit costs. Today, there are more microprocessors—tiny computers—produced in a year than there are people on the planet. We are surrounded and enabled by computers. They are in our products, buildings, cars and, through embedded medical devices, even inside of us. Now our things are starting connect en masse to the Internet, waking up and glowing with data.
As objects have become more animated, matter itself has become malleable. Software such as 123D Catch makes it easy to “rip atoms into bits,” notes McManus. The bits can then be reconstituted back into atoms through 3D printing at any time or place. A wrench, for example, can be printed in an orbiting space station, saving the “$20,000 per pound shipping charges.” Perhaps more astounding is how quickly we have come to accept that as a matter of course.
By year’s end, McManus will launch a competition under the “Primordial Motors” banner, equipping small teams—as small as three kids in a dorm room—with Autodesk software to give them the “power of 10,000 engineers” to design and build a better car. Instead of hotrods, they will create hackrods. “What if a factory wasn’t a place any more, but was actually a social network?” What if, indeed.
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Very quickly, cars emerged as a major theme of the conference, with two more auto-related keynotes, one by Kenyan rally car wunderkind Quentin Mitchell, and the other by Kevin Czinger, a nattily dressed former Marine, lawyer and serial entrepreneur on a mission to “dematerialize” and distribute manufacturing. While Mitchell’s team scrappily hacked a used car into a ready-for-anything racing machine in just two days, Czinger unveiled a one-seater 3D printed “supercar” called the Blade with a 700 HP bi-fuel engine (compressed gas or gasoline), able to v’room from zero to 60 mph in two seconds and weighing in at an auto-anorexic 1,400 pounds.
That last stat is key. When Czinger, founder and CEO of Divergent Microfactories, Inc., realized that the electric cars he had previously been developing really weren’t much better than conventional gas guzzlers once manufacturing emissions were tallied in, he set out to dramatically reduce material inputs—dematerialize—of car manufacturing and rethink the rules of manufacturing at scale. “I came to understand all the inputs, materials and energy that go into building a complex product like a car—and their combined impacts on us and our environment,” says Czinger.
His solution is the “carduino,” a 3D printed aluminum alloy connector that attaches to aerospace-grade carbon fiber tubing to create a super lightweight, structurally sturdy chassis. Like its namesake Arduino, a modular electronics platform, carduino “hides its complexity behind an easy to use interface,” Czinger explains. All the parts to build a complete chassis can fit in a Patagonia bag, too, kind of like an oversize children’s K’Nex set.
Czinger envisions a distributed network of micro factories, each costing just $20 million to boot up, rather than the hundreds of millions of dollars required for a traditional assembly line. Each would be able to produce 10,000 cars per year for local use. Still, engines, tires and other car parts would have to be shipped in, creating a considerable “farm to fork” carbon footprint.
Czinger’s dramatic unveiling of a sexy James Bond-worthy sports car thrilled the crowd, but I found myself wondering whether the concept of a car altogether wasn’t more a part of the past rather than the future. According to Czinger, as many as six billion cars will be built between now and 2050. That would be a threefold increase from the number of cars built to date. Beyond the incomprehensible environmental costs, the ability to go from zero to 60 mph simply doesn’t mean much when global traffic is in chronic gridlock. Also, as a native of Chicago, where sturdiness is a virtue and it really can get quite windy, a bantamweight car fails to inspire confidence. For that matter, a self-driving car—another SOLID darling—would need to prove its sensors to be as tough as a postman, impervious to snow, sleet, ice, slush, rain and all combinations thereof before taking on our pot-holed terrain.
But what if Divergent Microfactories and Primordial Motors were to take the combined power of massive design libraries, pervasive computing, digital fabrication and distributed manufacturing to rethink the components of a transportation network? Services such as Zip Car and Uber have demonstrated that people don’t necessarily care whether they own a car. What is needed is a range of options: different kinds of vehicles for different kinds of trips (see Vancouver’s VeloCar or San Francisco’s marvelously anachronistic, but effective street cars. Imagine an interstate lane adapted for high-speed, self-driving, long-haul street cars...).
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For author and digital rights activist Corey Doctorow, the most salient fact about a car isn’t its styling or weight, but its informatics and security model. “At every single DEFcon, at every single Blackhat, at every single CCC, someone will stand up and show you how you can compromise the informatics in a car by going in through something as innocuous as the Bluetooth sound interface and take over the steering and the breaks,” notes Doctorow.
It gets worse. The 1998 Digital Millennial Copyright Act (DMCA), developed long before smart cars, smart homes and smart everythings, gave the bad guys strategic advantage by making it illegal to “jailbreak” software locks. Criminals, of course, don’t care. The rest of us simply have to trust that the systems are secure.
It turns out to be a classic Catch-22:
“In order to preserve the software locks’ integrity, the DMCA makes it a felony to disclose information about defects, errors and vulnerabilities in systems that have software locks. So if there is a bug in a system that you own and rely on, it’s against the law to tell you about that bug because if you knew about that bug, it might help you jailbreak the system...
For Doctorow, the follies of the alchemical past could be prologue if the law isn’t reversed:
...Before we had modern science, we had a thing that looked a lot like science called alchemy. Alchemists did a lot of what scientists did: They would form a hypothesis about some natural phenomenon in the world. They would formulate an experiment. And they would test their hypothesis. But then they wouldn’t tell anyone what they learned because they didn’t want anyone beating them in the race to turn lead into gold.... That’s why every alchemist discovered for himself in the hardest way possible that drinking mercury was a bad idea. That’s why for 500 years, alchemy produced no dividends.
And then alchemists actually did something alchemical: They turned something base into something precious. They started publishing. They started telling other people what they thought they had learned through their experiments and subjecting themselves to adversarial peer review: that’s when your friends tell you about the mistakes that you’ve made and your enemies tell you what an idiot you were to have made them. In so doing, they converted the base metal of alchemy and superstition into the precious metal of science. And we call that moment the Enlightenment.”
The DMCA also quashes innovation. What may seem like a smart move locking in customers can backfire:
“It must be said that nobody who’s buying stuff wants this. They may buy it in spite of it, but no one buys it because of it. No one ever woke up in the morning and said, ‘Gosh, I wish there was a way I could do less with my books. I wish there were fewer vendors allowed to sell stuff into this platform I’ve just installed in my home. I wish there were fewer places to buy consumables for my implanted medical device.’”
On the other hand, companies that embrace a more open approach, adding intelligence to products in ways that make them more durable, compatible, resilient and safe, stand to win over the long term. Consumers will welcome an alternative to glitchy appliances, eager to cut the cord to companies that no longer support their products or may even no longer be in business.
By contrast, in Shenzhen, China—“the Silicon Valley of hardware where everything is happening”— there are no such restrictions, notes Joi Ito, SOLID program co-chair and director of MIT Media Lab. “Everything is so fast and iterative, the kids make cell phones in sort of the same way people in Silicon Valley make websites and apps. It’s this agile, emergent craziness... Innovation is getting pushed to the edges because it’s so fast and the costs are so cheap.”
To keep us from slipping into a legally-induced Dark Ages, Doctorow is working with the Electronic Frontier Foundation on the “Apollo 1201″ project (named after the “jailbreak” section in the DMCA), designed to end all such laws globally within the next decade.
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“BIOLOGY IS THE NEW DIGITAL” — Nicholas Negroponte
Meanwhile, scientists are busy restoring the enlightened foundations of peer review through a clever mashup of code and robotics. Reproducing experiments has become so challenging and expensive, it has been said that science itself has been broken. To fix it, San Francisco-based startup Emerald Cloud Laboratory (ECL) has come up with a way to standardize the experimentation process. Experiments conducted by robots in a wet lab are meticulously documented in code, then uploaded to a cloud-based virtual lab.
“If somebody wanted to question an experiment, they could go audit it,” explains Ito. “The interesting thing is that a lot of people running things in synthetic biology and biology are not the biologists, but ex computer science and robots people. So this another part of the convergence: The people are crossing over.”