Predictions for Re:ZERO arc 10
Mix of multiple messy threads I wrote combined together.
The Anime's Inversion
I think, fundamentally, the anime flipped over what I think is the real interpretation of arc 3 in the light novel, along with its implications for the final three arcs, especially Emilia and Subaru's second parting, which I think might happen this arc.
Tappei will convey certain views about the arc in his Q&As, but I don't think they should be taken at face value.
The tl;dr is the image Emilia develops of Subaru after arc 3, the things she's kept out of the loop on, and her general apathy, or lack of full cognizance, regarding the cost Subaru bore at the start of the arc.
We get a small taste that she knows it, at least deep in her subconscious, as her Taste of Death dialogue in the LN reveals, though the anime cuts some lines. I think this will be connected to her third trial line, where she says, "I've thought it several times, but the nightmare has truly come. So I will say it."
And she's very likely saying this to Subaru, in an effort to push him away for his sake, like she did in arc 3. In arc 3, however, she did it out of insecurity and, in part, for her own selfish reasons, as LN 9 reveals. By contrast, in arc 10 she'll likely do it out of conviction after realizing her feelings. The arc 9 line where she feels love for him but can't place it can't be coincidental, considering how many other things arc 10 is paralleling with arc 9. Plus, consider the stuff she says to Felt near the start of arc 10.
Emilia's Flippancy
She's shown to be flippant about things she shouldn't be so flippant about, and not nearly angry enough at things she ought to have been angry about. Repeatedly, multiple characters have pointed out how Emilia's nature makes things hard for Subaru. Felt thinks this at the start of arc 10 as well: her blatant faith in him, how she thinks he can't die, and so on. In contrast to Subaru thinking about how horrific he felt at the start of arc 3, Emilia comes off as rather flippant, in large part due to Gluttony messing with memories.
Subaru in arc 10 is suspiciously bordering on his old self at times, taking everything on himself, and the first one to call it out is Rem, in contrast to From Zero Rem, who was the cause of his hero complex. Even in arc 10, he bashes his old self, as if what he did in arc 3 was the height of sin compared to what other people were doing and getting away with. It definitely says something that it seems like he still seeks sympathy for it deep down, because Subaru bearing heroic reveries is bad for him, since it implies him dying all the time and suffering.
That is to say, the "problem" with arc 3 isn't really a problem if Tappei has been intentional about the things left unaddressed regarding Subaru's trauma in that arc, the long-lasting consequences, Emilia's mindset about promises, and the image she has of Subaru, if all of it is for the sake of eventually breaking it all down for her.
So I think Emilia's "turning point" is really going to be more like slowly breaking her down, like what happened to Subaru near the beginning of the story, but likely with far less suffering porn, considering she's Emilia and everything.
The Seal and Promises
Another theory about her attitude regarding promises: the plot twist might be that Emilia should have opened the seal.
Every promise or contract gets broken in arc 4 and is what leads to progress, and the promise that doesn't get made (Echidna's) is also painted in a bad light. Only Emilia is all "I have no regrets" when it came to her promise with Fortuna that Pandora asked her to break. But there's no reason for her to have regrets about it, because Fortuna was already dead and Pandora, as the arc's villain, implied that opening the seal would be far worse than Emilia freezing everything (and the Black Serpent already killed a bunch of elves). When you've lost everything and the promise to your dead mom is the only thing you have left, why wouldn't you keep it?
Grappling with regret only makes sense when there's an alternative path presented to you that wasn't so bad and you didn't take it. There need to be real tradeoffs. Unlike Subaru, she doesn't really face such tradeoffs. My belief is that Fortuna might not have been that good of a person and might have had selfish reasons for not opening the seal. Combined with the RbD reveal and the Puck contract details, the other thing that might potentially bring about disillusionment for her regarding her belief in promises might be the promise she made to her mother.
Pandora parallels Subaru in the Hope symbolism, and they both share dialogue in the same arc: "There is a time and place for keeping promises."
The issue, however, is that Pandora is a Witch and the way she went about trying to get Emilia to open the seal. Re:ZERO isn't very consequentialist or utilitarian in its morality, so it's "Pandora bad because the way she went about things bad," meaning Emilia is allowed to set aside a whole bunch of practical shit (like in arc 3) so Tappei can prop up her value system, and the one time he doesn't do that is also the only time she gets character development.
If the seal is akin to Pandora's Jar in Greek mythology, the seal is supposed to unleash all evils and vices out into the world, but what remains is Hope (i.e., Elpis). This would contradict the points above, but it's interesting to think about what it might mean.
Pandora's Role
Pandora is aroused by seeing people struggle against the odds. That's what the description of her reaction strongly implies when she sees Fortuna and Geuse go up against Regulus, and if she was the one to make the Whale disappear in arc 3 in the Greed of a Pig loop (his most difficult and mentally damaging loop in that arc), it's probably her role to shape events to make Subaru suffer as much as possible, and not really Echidna's.
The Knightly Oath
There's also Subaru's knightly oath to Emilia. Frankly, I think it's just plain bad for him and not something that should be put on a pedestal. It socially obligates Subaru to die for Emilia, and it's also bad that she has this unrealistic image of him, which is again set up for the RbD reveal, where she becomes more cynical about promises or the like.
Healthy Selfishness
I also hope Emilia, just like Subaru, accepts herself more. She just doesn't rag on herself as much as Subaru when we get her POV, but it's pretty clear the whole "if Subaru left her, she'll think it was her fault" thing is problematic. I think a dose of healthy selfishness (not possessiveness, which I don't believe is the same thing) would do them both a lot of good. She'll need to come to terms with just how many people caused her knight a shit ton of trouble, trouble she was kept from knowing. Subaru should also learn to put his foot down. Emilia, at the very least, should think back to how she hurt him back then, how she had taken his kindness for granted once and been punished for her naivety.
Living Over the Dead
In arc 10-19, Subaru thinks about "living over the dead" when thinking about Ferris breaking the promise to Crusch, because he prioritized Crusch over the dead Fourier, which was something Fourier himself would have wanted. This is something Subaru does all the time: break promises for the sake of the living, something Emilia and Beatrice struggle to accept (because they're a little stupid). This cannot be unrelated to the promise she made to Fortuna and RbD reveal.
More Predictions
At that time, Crusch had been preparing for the behemoth undertaking of subjugating the White Whale. Yet, she continued to patiently face the ignorant, vapid, insolent Subaru. In the end, she lent her ears to Subaru's words, and aided him with her power to help realize his ambitions.
I seriously don't get why arc 3 Subaru keeps getting bashed over and over like this. I mean, it's his POV, but he seriously lacks the big picture regarding the Kingdom. Rather than call himself names, he should be blaming others (like Roswaal or Puck) for not having prepared even a bit against the Cult. I think in general he just keeps making up for others' failures, and the aura monster arc 6 loop was definitely foreshadowing something.
The Emilia pose with her finger pointed to the heavens is also kinda red-flag prose ("heaven" = bad) for what may transpire soon, that plus her just listing all of Subaru's achievements but never having questioned it properly. This was my biggest issue with her in arcs 3 and 4, and now her saying they're not gonna lose. I'm somewhat confident the Emilia camp will break apart this arc, and while on the surface she's showing resolve against Bordeux's ruse, she'll very likely lose it by the end of the arc seeing what's befallen Subaru.
Very likely a similar ending to arc 9. In arc 9, she and Subaru aren't facing each other when Rem kills him: Al is looking at Subaru, saying he hates him, Rem is killing Subaru, Subaru's face averted from Emilia. Emilia also feels an emotion stronger than rage at Regulus or Al toward Subaru (love) but couldn't place it.
This arc's tragedy (tragic heroism much? It could be Subaru and Reinhard's, since they're the narrative heroes, but maybe even Emilia's) will be her and Subaru facing each other (instead of Subaru's face averted), Emilia having placed her feelings (instead of "She did not understand it whatsoever") but forced to push him away (paralleling arc 3, where they first parted).
Christ and Self-Erasure
The biggest difference between Jesus and Subaru is that Jesus is aware that the others are sinners and forgives them. That's why he works as a scapegoat and as a symbol. Subaru not only dies but takes everything on himself. He twists everything to make it his fault. Emilia's self-serving and cruel behavior toward him from the start of LN 4, his fault. Julius's classist tirade and the royal guard's pettiness, his fault. He has to apologize over and over again for others' sins. That isn't a Christ-like figure, that's self-abandonment, or rather, self-erasure, and it's extremely problematic that Emilia just seems to take it for granted that Subaru came back and confessed to her and doesn't question how he pulled it all off. This arc will be her punishment, if Bordeux's points are anything to go by.
