Ninth Best Chance: ‘s-Hertogenbosch
In most ATP tournaments there are 8 seeds, and when you run your favorite forecast model, most of the time (not always) those 8 seeds project as favorites for the quarterfinals. They typically also project as the favorites to win the tournament.
But what about the guy with the 9th best chance?
This week in ‘s-Hertogenbosch it is Marcos Baghdatis (CYP) via my forecasting system: 3.7% chance, which is danged high for the ninth best chance.
What he’s got going for him: He starts with a lackluster Tomic, and then gets either home favorite Haase, or Karlovic. Haase may be the bigger test, despite Karlovic’s game on grass. Karlovic has been struggling. His serve remains robust, but somehow his returns have gotten even worse. Haase never seems to play that well at home. The top seed in Bags’ quarter is Verdasco, which is do-able. And the top seed in the tournament is Adrian Mannarino?
What’s working against him: I’ll support this statement with data later in the year (if it’s still true), but "Den Bosch” may be the most competitive tournament on the tour this year. Unlike this week’s Stuttgart, there are a dozen players at ‘s-Hert that I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the tournament (although Gasquet ought to win it). There’s no dominant player, which is why Baghdatis has a decent chance, even though ninth best. The problem is that almost everyone else in the tournament is as good as he is.