#aws analysis

[the-pitwall]

Qualifying Predictions

Each race weekend I post a google form for qualifying predictions and I like to compare the results to the AWS graphics that appear in FP2 and FP3 - here is the result of that comparison

The longer the line, the greater of positions that prediction was off of the actual result, and if there is no line the prediction was spot on. Surprisingly the Tumblr predictions were closest, on average being 2 positions off, with AWS 1 being 2.8 and AWS 2 being 2.2.

Here are all of the predictions

Obviously, Stroll and Tsunoda not setting qualifying times affected the data but in general the top half of the grid was pretty close.

[the-pitwall]

Tumblr Qualifying Predictions vs AWS Qualifying Positions

I posted a google form on Friday asking people to submit their qualifying predictions and I would compare them against the actual results as well as the two AWS graphics that appear during FP2 and FP3 (thank you to those of you who sent me the graphics - I really appreciate it)

Here are the 3 predictions, the average of the google forms as well as the two AWS graphics

I also asked people to predict the timing gap and I think we were pretty spot on

On average the predictions on my google form were 2.5 positions off, AWS 1 was 2.6 and AWS 2 was 2.3, however we predicted the most drivers correctly - getting 4 in the right spot and 6 only one position off whilst the others were each 3 right and 4 one position off.

So can we predict the qualifying grid better than an AI, maybe? In some contexts, but I don't think we will be able to steal Amazon's job in this case.

This was really interesting to see and I'd love to do this again for future races if people are interested - I feel like it'd be easier to predict for a track like Barcelona as typically the drivers end up lining up as their teams and you'll have a lot of teammates next to each other

Thank you for everyone who got involved and submitted your predictions - I really appreciate it.

[the-pitwall]

Qualifying Predictions Results

In the left column we have the actual qualifying results and then in the second column the average of the answers from my qualifying predictions form along with the number off positions off they are from the actual result, along with the same for the AWS qualifying graphics from FP2 and FP3.

The average number of positions off for both of the AWS graphics was 2.5 and from the questionnaire it was 1.3, with 7 drivers guessed spot on

Just for a bit of fun these were mine and my dad's own qualifying predictions; I was quite proud that I guessed the top 5 correctly

just for continuity his average position off was a 1.9 and mine a 1.1