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Fear & Greed

we do crazy things as investors and we tend to do it over and over and over and let me take you back to nineteen the late 90s 1999-2000 as an example if you remember 1999 the market and done nothing but go straight up the Nasdaq was up about eighty percent and the SP was up a bunch as well and if you go we we can measure our behaviors investors because we know how much money we put into an out of mutual fund so we can kind of follow the money to see how we behave and before january of 2000 the record for money going into equity or stock mutual funds was twenty nine billion dollars in one month so that just keep this in mind right the record was 29 billion dollars in one month before january two thousand and we just had this amazing run where the market the nasa except over eighty percent and in january of 2000 we poured 45 billion dollars in one month index shattering this old record at 45 billion dollars in February of 2000 the shortest month of the year then and now we poured 54 billion dollars in the equity mutual funds and then March of two thousand thirty nine billion dollars right all three months completely destroying this previous record right after the marketed had this huge run now if you think and of course that was just in time we all remember what happened in march of 2000 march of 2000 was the high for that market cycle so at what turned out to be the high we were pouring money into stocks now if you think we act sort of irrational ER crazy at market tops wait till you see what happens right if we fast-forward just two years that the market's down around fifty percent and october of 2002 was the first time in recorded history where we had five months in a row where we pulled more money out of stock mutual funds so instead of having these positive numbers there were actually negative numbers coming out of stock mutual funds five months in a row October of two thousand October of 2002 was the fifth month in a row turns out and you know the punch line right October of 2002 was the market low for that cycle so right before we hit tops we're pouring money in out of greed we're buying and right right about the time margetts it the low out of fear we're selling and then of course we all became real estate investors in 2007 you know what are we doing now I I don't know if now it's gold but we tend to repeat this process until broke

#accidental artist #behavior gap #buckingham asset management #carl richards #fear and greed #Forex behavioral #Forex Fundamental Analysis #Forex Technical Analysi #FOREX TRADING METHODS

Daily Post: Trust

Source: Behavior Gap

#trust #transparency #communication #behavior gap

is your finger on the trigger?

I tell investors all the time that they would be fine in a regularly rebalanced asset allocation index fund. I really believe that is the case, with one major caveat - that it would only work out if they were over the next several decades able to manage their behavior. I will invoke a graphic I have used before: