A while ago you said that if we ended up with fewer than 30000 Anitami blue ex-reds, it proved no one involved really believed that reds were as capable as other people of doing non-red work. Specifically, you said that this had to be the case because caste aptitudes aren't strongly heritable, so reds couldn't be competent people without being competent blues. What do you think now?
(Referring to this post. Content warnings on that link for denial of red personhood, nonperson pronouns for ex-reds, censoring “red” as a slur, anti-ex-red hate, and Tidal.)
First off, let’s be clear about what the test says:
if they’re recasteing honestly (i.e., based on aptitude alone), then we should end up with about 30,000 Anitami ex-red blues;
if we end up with much fewer than that, then Shasali Aven was a PR move.
Because caste aptitude isn’t heritable, there are about 30,000 ex-red Anitamis who should have been recasted as blue. Since the actual number is closer to 30, it follows that recasteing is based on something other than aptitude. The most obvious explanation is that the people in power, who are presumably mostly blue, want to keep ex-reds out of their caste. If decisions about whether to allow ex-red blues are made based on personal/political motives rather than on aptitude, then it seems likely that the exceptions to their resistance were political likewise.
However, there may also be a factor of individual choice. As I understand it, ex-reds are allowed a degree of choice in regards to their new caste, and the effects of this are visible in e.g. the low number of ex-red greys. It’s possible that ex-reds are choosing to avoid recasteing as blue, perhaps because blue credits are very expensive and blue incomes are mostly based on established portfolios.
In either case, Anitam is being deprived of competent and qualified blues, whether through their own untheological prejudice or through the intrinsic ugliness of the caste system.