#boris schlossberg

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Forex Trading Strategy - Breakout or Fakeout? How to Tell The Difference

hey guys boys last word from BK Forex advisor I'm a little bit under the weather this week's on my apologies for my stuff you voice this week I wanted to go through step by step the key aspect of my breakout or faked out set up to understand exactly what we do why certain things work why they don't and how can you tell the difference between a breakout and a fake out to become the most effective the most profitable the most high probability trailer you can possibly be so before we talk about that let's just review the exact idea of what I do as far as a session trace base breakout we look essentially for price to establish a new direction after it passes the asian session so here we have the Eurodollar on thursday friday layover and the asian session I will demarcate always buy around 1700 eastern time which is 5 p.m. new york time to about two pm-2 a.m. london time so within this parameter is what I consider to be the asian session highs and lows and we're going to see what happens in Europe and North America that will either break them to the upside or to the downside in this particular case you see that the low here was 37 30 and price breaks 3730 here and around five o'clock in the round yep about 5am a new york time and continues to move all the way down into a massive break much much higher much further down so the bottom line is you're only looking for the break of the asian session because asian session tends to be the consolidation session of the of the forex market and price will establish trend either in London or New York because that's where all the news comes out from and news is the critical determinant between high probability and a sort of a medium probability trade in the session based break out because you can have two types of breakouts you can have a price break out what price simply breaks out without any fundamental news I ended which is a weaker and less highly probable effect because what they're doing is they simply trying to take out the stops but they don't have any fundamental fuel to drive the price further in the direction or you can have a news break out in which case chance to be a lot more powerful because not only do you have the break of the stop on a technical basis but you have the fundamental fuel to actually direct the price into the into the flow of where the fundamental news is so that's the critical difference if you can get a price break on news you generally have a much higher probability view of the direction of the move and as I said last week the key thing that I want to do with this type of setup is it was what you always want to take the the break of the of the price action with a to lock position where you will establish one lot take a short profit on the first lap let's say you don't know 15 20 points generally I want to take only 15 10 points on the first position and then trail trail the move all the way down and my stop in all of these setups is never more than 20 points so if I'm short at 37 you know 3735 I'm not going to be able to i'm going to put my stop at 3755 because generally if the price is going to break and then retrace if it reaches for more than 20 points you're just wrong or it's just consolidate anymore it doesn't have enough power to really take it through occasionally you may have the price test the you know the level twice and that's a very tough decision to make unless you have fundamental news behind you I would never take a price break twice into the move if i get stopped out than the first time on the price break i will just simply stand back but if you dare fundamental news driving it you may want to if you get stopped out on the first try give it a second try and see if you can trail yourself down so how do we do this week unfortunately this week i was i was really away from the markets all of the week so i had very few trades but i want to show you a couple of examples none of them by the way follow my favorite method of using two units and a trail I've simply using one unit mainly because I was away from the markets I wasn't very very confident that wasn't really informed as I should have been in my training took half risks which overall actually worked out well but generally not a not a perfect setup so let me show you a couple of things that that we did here so here's the first move this is pound dollar Thursday night now Wednesday into Thursday and as you can see this is let's just back up here asia sessions asia session highs lows right I'm going to demarcate this for you so this is the asian session load gets broken he is broken really on the news there's nothing going on there in the in the UK land so this was a price break i took the price break again on a one-lap position with a very very tight target tight stop and it was just a quick scalp to the downside i could have made a lot more money had i taken to you know two lots but in this particular case i really had very little fundamental drivers behind it it was just simply pound weakness over the concerns over sovereign debt nothing exactly that moment that made me they made me want to take the trade but still as you can see the trade works well because momentum just simply takes you down through the asian session break let me show you the next trade next trade is a couple of interesting trades here this is euro again i am just not as informed because i'm coming in this is asian session break and i'll just pull back for you to see as you can see i'm coming in late this is me basically trading the way way behind the the price action because i'm simply I was simply just the way from the markets all of this week traveling so this is me doing sort of very amateurish work but still works because I'm following my rules in the grand sense the Euro actually breaks the asian session lows here at around two o'clock on the very weak german gdp numbers but then at five o'clock we get a double whammy a weak european german gdp and chinese tightening my chinese typing is something that was unknown at the time i shorted this but then as soon as I and I was able I covered basically begin very quickly because I'm at this point I'm just trying to capture small small profits I don't have a very good feel for risk but the moment that I hear the Chinese typing occurs I'd go back into the market and I short again over here and as you can see you know I make my second profit target here I could have made more money again I only a very little confidence because I'm just I'm just not into the market one of the key things that is so important when you're trading these type of setups is to actually watch the markets for two or three hours prior to really get a good feel and because I wasn't watching the markets because I wasn't feeling confident about price flow my trades were much smaller both in size and enough in lot size that then they would have been normally and I didn't get nearly as much out of the trade as I possibly could now lastly I want to conclude by showing you why it's so hard to fight the man and i want to show you actually why trading with the flow generally tends to be a much better proposition than fading the flow because after all of this brouhaha with the chinese tightening we come back and i look at aussie now remember the aussie the night before i had much much stronger employment numbers so i'm thinking you know locally they took the aussie all the way down and it's nonsense because really even if chinese tighten the australia RBA is gonna have to raise rates because the economy is still getting blown out to such high levels but here's the point kicking tops and bottoms generally very much a mug's game I am I try to basically pick a bottom here and get stopped out and I try to go back into the market because I see consolidation here and I make my you now make half my losses back but the point being is that trying to pick a bottom here was really a very very difficult proposition you could do it but going with the flow understanding hey Chinese came in and and all the key levels were broken look how much more money I would have made and I simply gone with the flow the idea here is that the breakout fake-out is dependent very much on news flow generally is a stronger trade than counter flow but counter flow is possible but a much more difficult position if you really want to do it and that's pretty much it as far as trading the session based breakouts and fake outs they can really hopefully help you achieve high probability trades I'm wishing you the best of luck next week I am back at the desk back in the markets hopefully we'll have a lot more trades and a lot more setups for you and as at BK as well wishing you the best of holiday weekend the sports lottsburg for BK over now it

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New Post has been published on TRADE MASTER TEAM

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Forex Trading - The Most Important Rule of Algo Trading

hey guys Boris often from BK great to be with you another super week of trading at BK this week we're gonna have a very short but I think a really interesting video about the critical most important rule of algorithmic trading which in my opinion is actually knowing when to abandon your algo as an example I'm going to use my three strikes and you're in trade which is the algorithm that we've all been trading lately that a lot of people have had tremendous amount of success with we're basically which we're trying to fade three candles on a Bollinger Band and go along on the short side go short and along side and as you can see in this particular euro dollar example we have two positive traits setting up setting up for ourselves on a five-minute chart we have this trade over here we have this trade over here and when you sort of think about what this algo does is it sells mean reversion it basically sells volatility it buys bottoms sells tops and in a range bound market the one that you've seen over here it's going to work very well but but and this is a very critical but whenever you have any type of a long term trending market a market something with something like this we have sort of a low vol start and an acceleration to the downside what's going to happen is you can eat continuously chopped out of your algorithm all the way down and you're going to be buying bottoms and never having a chance to to have a bounce-back so in order to not give back the profits that you've earned all throughout the range session you really need to understand when to put a kill switch into your algorithm there is no algorithm that works all the time there is no algorithm that can stay in the market continuously and make you money it's extraordinary important to figure out the weak point of your algorithm and to create a kill switch for it in order to stop the madness what it happens so in this pretty good case my rule of thumb is basically ya Street three strikes and I'm in but two stops and I'm out so generally what I like to do is if I'm getting stopped out twice on the same leg of the move that means we have a continuation leg on the same say move I will simply stop the I'll go until until some change of trend happens so definition of change of trend can be anything you want it could be a tagger 220 it could be a move all the way up to the opposite Bollinger Band but whatever you want to define yourself as a change of trend that is the only time when I would restart the algo because then price action has changed the way from trend to perhaps new range bound conditions it's extremely important in this particular case I gave you a very modest example what can happen but there are plenty of times where you could have literally continuity of trend for sometimes two or three hours and you will mercilessly get chopped up in a mean reversion algorithm and give back everything and more so of your profits if you don't know how to kill it so that's the single most important rule about low trading I wish you the best of luck this is Boris cosmic over and out next week probably live skating at the DK chatroom and more trades out of D case have come join us wish you the best of luck and the best of trading over and out

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New Post has been published on TRADE MASTER TEAM

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Forex Trading - High Probability Profit in 00 - Trade Time Not Price

hey guys borscht last word from bkt alright let's take a look at the ooo set up in a little bit more refined form because what I want to show you today is that the single most important thing about trading the OO set up is actually the time frame not the price now just to review for everybody how does it that we trade the set up basically the idea here is that whatever price approaches the round number figure we want to be join the flow so the typical standard oo setup that I've shown on the on the web many times in YouTube is when price goes to 20 on either side of the handle so for example in this case this is a pound dollar chart and it's moving down and it breaks the twenties own we're gonna think that it's gonna move all the way down to the ozone eventually and go short and the standard trade is basically you go short with a twenty target and a twenty stop now in this particular variation that I want to show you we're gonna make it a little more high probability instead of making a twenty stop twenty target what I typically like to trade is actually ten target twenty stop the reason why is because I want to make us high probability trade as possible and there is no free lunch in trading basically you can have two choices you can either have high probability with negative risk reward or you can have high profit with positive risk reward and that means you're not gonna have nearly as much high probability so in this pretty good case what I like to do is is just trade the meat of the trade which is go from twenty to ten or from nine from eighty to ninety if we were going to the upside but the single most important thing that you want to know about trading the oo setup is actually a time frame let's take a look at the pound olive first and then I'll take a look at the euro dollar in the pound dollar here the critical time frame with this setup works best is basically from around to in this case you can you can maybe make an exception to about one o'clock in the morning but bit generally is from about 2:00 a.m. or let's say even 1 a.m. till about New York time this is all East Coast time so basically right around here maybe even I would say even 11 o'clock in New York time and the reason why those hours are the prime hours of trade is because that's when London and New York intersect that's when you have the most liquidity and that's when price basically takes enormous amount of momentum and vortex remember this whole setup is based on the idea of huge momentum sweeping towards the oh-oh number as news drives it or some other factor drives it towards that direction so if you just limit yourself basically to the start of the London session and to the end of the mid day New York session that's when you're going to have the highest probabilities of success so as we move on this is a five-day chart 10-minute chart you'll see as we move to on during the day you have lots and lots of action this of course Asia going going going very very flat and now again comes London now comes London and it's around 2 o'clock in the in the after in the morning and this is where we begin to trade so here in this particular case we're gonna get we're gonna take a 196 80 right here the stop would be 196 660 will get along here here you get a little bit retraced and notice this is why you need to give yourself 20 points a retrace because sometimes price is just not going to go in your direction right away as momentum builds in early morning remember what's happening is that dealers in London aren't getting orders orders orders and that's where the order flow starts to move towards your direction and here it hits again back up to +10 and maybe even plus 20 if you wanted to hold it all the way down so this is the pound there are lots more examples as we go through here's the New York session again we break the 80 in the New York session and we could make another run back up to the 9700 on the on the move so those are the two key times when you really want to be trading everything else is just going to be lots of fake outs and lots of very weak movements because you don't have directionality let's take a look at as we go forward in our momentum here again we're basically you know this is the 80 this is the 80 chart in this case we're looking for a move back up through the 80 move here it moves back up through 80 and goes all the way up to 9700 on the move up as we as we get the news this is the two o'clock to the four o'clock time window the real meat of the trade when we get news and a vortex of information going our way and here ironically enough by the way a lot of the stuff will get reversed in New York because news of course goes the other way this is the FOMC meeting so that's why there's still the exception the only exception to this is when you have a FOMC meeting at 2:00 o'clock in the afternoon you're gonna get some very meaningful moves up and down taking a look at the Euro I just want to show you how this also works on the Euro so this is the FOMC meeting but let's just go back to the Europe in the early session beginning of the week the euro was actually very very weak this is this is Asia session Sunday night but look again Europe opens up and we have a Down move and again you would look at notice of time you have about three four o'clock in the morning New York time which is Europe opening up breaks it 20 and it goes all the way up to zero the rest of the time it just sits there consolidates this is where you have the highest probability setups for the meet of the trade so bottom line is when you're trading oo you want to trade it between 1:00 a.m. to about 11:00 a.m. New York time you want to look for those very very high probability setups when things are going to be moving your way because of news and try to target only 10 out of 20 points for the highest probability possible he trades I wish you'd have best of luck I hope this was fun and I hope you guys find it profitable this is Boris that's work for B King

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Moving Average and MACD Combo Strategy from BK Forex

I've ran symud here from inform trades comm in this video want to review a strategy shared by borscht loss Bert and Kathleen in their book high probability trade I probably live trading saps for the currency market you can visit Boris and Kapil rebuked a Forex comm this strategy is centered around using moving averages and the MACD indicator in conjunction if you're unfamiliar with those tools we have a bunch of videos about them on inform trades that you'd want to check out ok the key points or the the basic rules of this strategy you want to wait for price to be above the fifty out a simple moving average and the 100 simple moving average prices to be above them not only that the price must be at least 10 pips above both of them so whichever one's higher 50 or 110 pips above that one MACD must have gone positive within the last five candles if it hasn't you simply want to wait for the next MACD signal and when the next MACD signal comes evaluate are we still above the five hundred and one hundred and just by 10 pips the initial stop that you place on your trade when you enter is the five Barlow from the entry so basically look at the candle that gives you the entry signal meaning the MACD is gone positive and the price is above the 10 pips above the moving averages and then look five bars back and what's the lowest point there out of the past five bars place your stop below there when then calculate how much you risk so that might be 30 pips or 50 pips or hundred or whatever multiply that by two and that is your first profit target so when price goes twice the distance from where you enter in your stop-loss you take off half and then you exit the remainder when price breaks below the fifty simple moving average 10pips all this is obviously easier to understand or clearer to see with an example okay so we're looking at here is this is a euro US dollar hourly chart and this actually goes back to the search are from 2004 2005 but the same the same concepts will apply so here we see prices above the 50 and 100 simple moving averages right here but the MACD is already positive and it's been more than five candles since it went positive so here two of the criteria are met we are more than 10 pips above the 50 and 100 simple moving averages but the MACD is been positive for too long so now we simply have to wait here the MACD goes positive again and we end up being 10 pips above the simple moving averages at 50 and 100 moving averages within five candles after the MACD goes positive so here we get our entry signal right around here okay then we calculate where's our low if we enter here one two three four five our stops going to be right around here right below this candle okay so we enter here stops below here then we exit half when the distance between these two points where we enter in the five bar low multiply that by two and then we add net with that's our exit point for where we take off half and that comes up around here so enter here five bar low put our stop below that it puts us right around here multiply this distance by two and that gives us our initial profit re which ends up being right around here once the price gets here we take off half the position and we move our style to break-even so now we've got half profit and there's no risk or if the price falls all the way back down will at least be out break even and now we simply wait okay so this is the 50 simple moving average of black lines of 100 we wait until price goes 10 pips below the 50 symbol moving average so we go up up and that doesn't happen so all around here so you know basically we enter it in 1945 we exit at 21 64 65 so it's 220 pips and it's an example of you know we got our initial profit you know we'll take half off and then we were able to ride the trend another one of the rules that the board to Kathy talked about in their book is you know your risk should be predetermined and fixed and your reward is somewhat variable dependent upon how price is behaving this trade illustrates that so our first reward was a little predetermined in that we knew how much we were initially risking based on the five Barlowe of the wearer of stop was placed and we could sort of multiply that by two to get our initial profit target but ultimately we do want to see if there's longer trend we can hold on to and that's dependent upon price action so in this case you know we're thus 50 simple moving averages depends on you know how price is moving during this period during this time frame it turns out you know so we do have to watch the market a little bit or or program with runi a and once price falls about 10 pips below that's there execute there is a short in their book high probability trading cents for the currency market they offer a way to surety of this strategy shorting based on moving averages the magdi in this video obviously we just cover the long side we'll have more videos covering trading trading strategies from them you can visit our website BK for XCOM if you have any questions anything you want to add you can join us at informed trades com thanks and best of luck in your trade

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Investors should not be lured to buy Bitcoin simply because the price has dropped according to a foreign exchange strategist Boris Schlossberg.

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Some strategists are cautious ahead of the monthly employment report to be published Friday, and are looking to some risk-off trades. “It seems like everybody is just ignoring the very tepid, very, very lackluster economic data,” Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management’s managing director of forei…

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