Horace Dediu ran some numbers over at Asymco:
These assumptions result in a cumulative revenue of over $1 billion by 2018 and a yearly run rate of $1 billion in revenue by 2020.
So it looks like Apple Pay is set to become yet another billion dollar business for Apple in a few years' time. And while that might not be a lot of money for Apple — 0.5% of Revenue and 2% of Earnings, as Dediu notes — it's a nice 'little' business to have on the side.
Apple Spotlight nails it on the big picture though:
That’s a nice ‘little’ business, one that many companies would love to have. That said, I see Apple Pay as more of a supporting character. It makes Apple devices even better, keeps Apple ahead of the competition, and supports Apple’s high customer satisfaction levels. These all, of course, drive sales. And that is much more important to Apple than whatever profits Apple Pay generates.
Exactly.











