#delegate math

[iamtimblack]

Hillary Clinton's Superdelegates Don't Count Until The Convention!

[richardbillies-blog]

Superdelegates and Bernie Sanders

Superdelegates and Bernie Sanders

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders criticized the Democratic party’s nomination process and superdelegates during a rally in Santa Cruz, Calif., on May 31. He blasted reports that rival Hillary Clinton had clinched the nomination as “factually incorrect.” (AP) “Literally eight months before the first ballot was cast in Iowa, she had almost all of the superdelegates on board. That is…

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[themendaciousrepublicanpart-blog]

The Mysterious Mississippi Delegate

For those who aren’t aware, every pledged delegate in the Democratic primary is awarded proportionally. In other words, winning X% of the vote gets you approximately X% of the pledged delegates. Now, this is slightly complicated by the distribution of delegates - each state is given a number of delegates in proportion with its contribution to the national Democratic vote share in the last three elections along with its electoral vote share; i.e. large states get more delegates, and more Democrat-friendly states get more delegates. Furthermore, 25% of those are set aside for apportioning based on the statewide vote, while 75% are divided up among the Congressional districts to be handed out based on vote shares in that CD. Furthermore, there is an additional 15% added to the total number of delegates given to the state. These are “pledged PLEOs (party leaders and elected officials)”, who are also given out depending on the statewide vote. There’s one last rule as well: if any candidate fails to get 15% of the vote in the state/Congressional district, they receive no delegates from the statewide/Congressional district pools. So this brings me to the mysterious Mississippi delegate. Bernie did not do well in Mississippi. He garnered only 16% of the vote statewide, which just barely allows him to take delegates. He was completely locked out of two Congressional districts - CD2 (he won 11%) and CD3 (14%). Or so I thought. Apparently, somehow, despite receiving only 14% of the vote (below the 15% threshold!), Bernie received one delegate from CD3. I, for one, would like an explanation. Or, at the very least, for there to be the same sort of questioning of the rules as there is whenever Clinton wins. But there won’t be. Because IOKIYBS.

[terminalpolitics]

The news is ignoring the shift in Nevada delegate counts

At the county convention. So I guess we won't have to read any Washington Post smears about what a "cheater" Bernie Sanders is -- yet.

[terminalpolitics]

Did Bernie Sanders Win Nevada? 5 Fast Facts You Need to Know

The Clark County Democratic convention flipped Nevada from Hillary Clinton to Bernie Sanders after a day of delegate confusion and…

Bernie Sanders won Nevada Saturday after county conventions took the win from Hillary Clinton. The Clinton and Sanders campaigns clashed at Nevada county conventions, and Sanders walked away with three county wins, including Clark County where Clinton had originally won the vote. This means that although Clinton got more votes on caucus day, Sanders will end up with more delegates.

The Clark County convention was filled with drama, including rumors that Sanders delegates were told not to show up and others being threatened with arrest. In the end, more delegates voted for Sanders than Clinton, flipping the results of Clark County, which includes Las Vegas. It’s unclear at this time exactly how many new delegates Sanders is picking up from Nevada, since delegates are unbound until the state convention, but he definitely won some today.

Here’s what you need to know.

1. Sanders Won the Clark County Convention, After Clinton Had Won the Clark County Caucus

Thousands of delegates showed up for the Clark County Convention in Nevada at Cashman Center on Saturday. Although a caucus election was held in February, Saturday’s convention was where delegates decided who would represent Clark County at Nevada’s state Democratic convention, KTNV reported. Delegates are decided proportionally in Nevada, not on a winner-takes-all basis. The Nevada Democratic convention is May 14 and 15. The Democratic National Convention is July 25-28.

On caucus day in February, almost 9,000 delegates were elected for the Clark County convention: 4,889 for Clinton and 4,026 for Sanders, Las Vegas Sun reported. At the end of the county convention today, the count was 2,386 for Clinton and 2,964 for Sanders.

In Carson County, Sanders ended up with a vote of 29:28. And in Washoe County, Sanders had 1050 to Clinton’s 833.

Although Clinton had more delegates than Sanders after the Nevada caucus election, Sanders walked away with more wins on Saturday because either her delegates didn’t all show up for the county conventions or they changed their votes. Alternates are able to vote in the place of delegates who don’t show up.

It’s unclear at this time exactly what this means statewide or how many extra delegates Sanders will pick up from the state convention. There are 35 delegates total for Nevada and 25 are rewarded proportionally based on caucus results. Twelve are awarded through county conventions. Sanders may pick up as few as just one or two extra delegates, or it could give Sanders as many as 10 extra delegates in the national convention. (Nevada also has eight superdelegates.)

2. Officials Deposed the Credentialing Chair at the Beginning of the Convention

Officials deposed the chair of the Clark County credentials committee, Christine Kramer, who was a Sanders supporter but had a neutral role in the county convention. She said she chose to stay neutral because she wanted to represent all the people of Clark County. An emergency meeting was held by the executive board and Kramer was removed from her position on Saturday. Kramer said she wasn’t given an opportunity to defend herself. When asked to leave the executive board meeting, she sat on the ground in protest.

It’s unclear exactly why officials wanted to depose Kramer. Some are saying it was because she stopped rule violations during preregistration the night before that were hurtful to the Sanders campaign. Others say she was actively campaigning against Clinton. The following message was being shared on Facebook, but it has not been confirmed if this was actually from the Clinton campaign:

[image]

3. Sanders’ Campaign Manager Said the Clark County Convention Was Run Worse than Arizona

Bernie Sanders’ campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, spoke out on Twitter about the state of the Clark County convention. There were only 6,600 seats for 8,900 delegates, he said. Police were called to remove people from the overflow area. He added that it made Arizona look like its election was well run. For more information about Arizona, read the story here.

This isn’t the first time in the presidential campaign that a caucus or primary win was changed in the convention. On the GOP side, Donald Trump won Louisiana with the popular vote on primary day. But Ted Cruz ended up with more delegates at the state convention.

4. Police Were Called to the Convention, With Rumors of Arrests

During the Clark County convention on Saturday, there were rumors that some delegates were arrested, but these rumors were never substantiated.

On one discussion forum that supports Sanders, a poster wrote: “The Clark County Dem party told them they had to change their vote to Clinton if they wanted to go to the convention. They were told if they’re unwilling to change their vote they can just go home. Sanders campaign attorneys showed up as the Bernie delegates refused to leave. The Clark County Dem party called the police an are trying to get the Bernie delegates arrested. … The Clark County Dem party is trying to bypass the chair. … They haven’t been arrested yet but said Las Vegas Metro was called and charges were being pressed. What charges I don’t know.”

It was never shown if anyone was actually arrested. Kramer was told she might be given a trespassing charge for not leaving an executive board meeting.

5. Delegates Were Given Conflicting Information About Whether They Needed to Attend the Convention

County delegates were confused about the rules for voting in the convention, Las Vegas Sun reported. The county party sent out an email on Friday saying that delegates who checked in and registered on Friday night didn’t have to attend the Saturday convention. Alternates did have to attend, the email continued. But most delegates thought that everyone had to attend the convention all day on Saturday anyway. Many decided to attend all day just in case.

This just happened today. 4/02/16

I don’t even know what’s going on in Nevada. It sounds like a total clusterfuck. Apprently, though, Bernie Sanders just flipped the script on this second phase of delegate allocation and will be getting more delegates at the state convention in May.

Don’t ask, I don’t get it either. Go to the linked article as it contains pictures and video and all kinds of stuff.

[banjo-gk]

Why Sanders can still win. With Math!

Okay, so let’s take a look at the primary so far:

 -2304/4051 pledged delegates have been allocated  That’s 57%

- Of those, Secretary Clinton has won 55% and Sanders won 45%. A difference of 10%.

    Well, that’s not great... so what needs to happen in order for us to witness the greatest comeback victory of the century? The overly simplified answer is that he needs to win at least 56.6% of the remaining 1747 delegates. This would add 990 pledged delegates to his current 1037 pledged delegates and bring his total over the 2026 necessary to claim the majority.

    Now that sounds pretty close to the argument that Sanders has to win 60% of the vote in all of the remaining states in order to get the nomination. However, there is a key difference For every win over 56.6%, that number goes down. Let me show you.

-If WI goes 56.6% S to 43.4% C, then Sanders would receive 49/86 delegates. That would mean his total would be 1086/2026. So he would then need 940 out of the then remaining 1661. That’s 56.6%

-But let’s say he does a little better and WI goes 60% S to 40% C. Now, Sanders gets 52/86 delegates and the number look like this. 

Total = 1089/2026

Needed = 937/1661 or 56.4%. 0.2% less per state is now needed for him to win.

Alright. But that’s still kinda a pipe dream, right? Not Really. In 5 of the last 6 states Sanders won by at least 40%. So lets see what happens if WI goes 70% S to 30% C.

-So now he gets 60/86 delegates.

Total = 1097/2026

Needed = 929/1661 or 55.9%.

And WI’s delegate count is dwarfed by several of the other states that are left. NY = 247, PA = 189, NJ = 126 and CA = 475. Any victory in one of these states where Sanders takes over 56.6% of the vote can greatly drive down the margin that he needs to win by in all the others. So to all the Debbie Downers and Fretful Freddys out there that feel the bern... I’m gonna go ahead and give you permission to downgrade your panic level to Indigo: cautiously optimistic.

TLDR: Go Vote!

[nonbinarycoding]

I’m writing this post hoping it’ll pick up some views before Tuesday, and overall going forward. As it stands, Bernie has a 313 pledged delegate gap to make up. If we assume that the superdelegates will vote in line with the pledged delegates, or at least, giving the advantage to whoever is winning coming into the convention, then Bernie must win 57.60% of the remaining pledged delegates in order to be in the lead at the time of the convention.

At first glance, this seems like a really tall margin. But it ignores something huge. The deep south is primarily where Clinton built her lead. She won  The deep south is entirely done voting. Outside the deep south, Sanders has won 52.93% of the delegates so far. He will need to increase this margin going forward in order to make a sizeable dent in HRC’s lead.

All the numbers so far are facts available to anyone who feels like sitting down and counting them. They are not predictions. They are reality. 58% is the magic number for the next few months. Until New York, if Bernie can stay above this number, he will have a shot. 

I’m a diehard Bernie fan, to the annoyance of many of my Facebook friends. More importantly, I’m also a huge numbers geek. Polls are a huge part of how we predict elections, but polls have underestimated Bernie consistently, most egregiously via an unprecedented 20 point polling error in Michigan, as Sanders won a state that the average poll had him losing by over 18%. Knowing this, it’s important that we not get discouraged. Yes, Clinton is the favorite. But we knew that 6 months ago, and Bernie has kept up with her better than anyone could have predicted, even his fans. Bernie is the underdog. He always has been. But the next few weeks should go in his favor. And if we can hit that magic number, the lead Clinton has amassed will begin to be seriously threatened.

If you guys want to know more, get this post some notes, and I’ll make a post about how superdelegates can and will switch their votes if Bernie can achieve these numbers, but only if we vote him into serious contention.

[mpryry-blog]

I feel that’s really the only number that’s truly important from this past weekend’s GOP primary delegate results.

3.33%, or 1 delegate from Wyoming and DC went for Trump.

The sad news is the others were split pretty evenly and there just weren’t many delegates at stake:

Rubio - 11 - 36.7%

Cruz - 9 - 30.0%

Kasich - 9 - 30.0%

Overall it was a very slight tightening of the field but not much else significant prior to the ‘uge day tomorrow could be.