Since 1947, the "Doomsday Clock" has symbolized the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe (represented by midnight). As of January of 2022, the Clock remains as close to midnight as it has ever been in history. Why? Didn't the United States replace Donald Trump, who pretty much single-handedly drove the Doomsday Clock forward from 11:57:00 in 2016 to 11:57:30 in 2017, then to 11:58:00 in 2018 (and 2019), and then to 11:58:20 in 2020?
No question, the Biden administration did improve things:
"In 2021 the new American administration changed US policies in some ways that made the world safer: agreeing to an extension of the New START arms control agreement and beginning strategic stability talks with Russia; announcing that the United States would seek to return to the Iran nuclear deal; and rejoining the Paris climate accord. Perhaps even more heartening was the return of science and evidence to US policy making in general, especially regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. A more moderate and predictable approach to leadership and the control of one of the two largest nuclear arsenals of the world marked a welcome change from the previous four years. ...
"The February 2021 agreement between the United States and Russia to renew New START for five years is a decidedly positive development. This extension creates a window of opportunity to negotiate a future arms control agreement between the two countries that possess 90 percent of the nuclear weapons on the planet. The United States and Russia also agreed to start two sets of dialogues about how to best maintain 'nuclear stability' in the future: the Working Group on Principles and Objectives for Future Arms Control and the Working Group on Capabilities and Actions with Strategic Effects. These groups have met and in early 2022 are expected to report on initial results of the consultations, aimed at shaping future arms control agreements.
"Another bright spot was the Biden administration's announcements that it would seek to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran and offer to enter strategic stability talks with China. Although no talks between North Korea and the United States took place in 2021, the North Koreans have not resumed testing of nuclear weapons or long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). (Tests of shorter-range missiles have continued.) Finally, when the Biden administration began its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) process, it announced that one specific goal would be to 'reduce the role of nuclear weapons' in US national security policy. ...
"US president [Biden] 'acknowledges climate change as a profound threat and supports international cooperation and science-based policy,' and we've seen a dramatic change in tone from the previous presidential administration. Recognizing that '[t]he effects we are seeing of climate change are the crisis of our generation,' Biden has indeed attempted to move forward quickly, reentering the United States in the Paris Agreement and announcing the United States' updated Paris emission pledge of a 50 percent reduction by 2030. He has also signaled an attentiveness to the connection between climate action and environmental justice, in both the domestic and international contexts. He has committed to making climate investments in disadvantaged communities within the United States, and at the UN General Assembly meeting he pledged to double climate financing to developing countries. ...
"The new US administration has done much to reestablish the role of scientists in informing public policy, and even more to minimize deliberate confusion and chaos emanating from the White House. Thoughtful deliberation—merely a promise in January 2021—appears to be realized more often today."
But this simply isn't enough to reverse the innumerable disasters that Trump caused, and is still causing:
"Despite laudable efforts by some leaders and the public, negative trends in nuclear and biological weapons, climate change, and a variety of disruptive technologies—all exacerbated by a corrupted information ecosphere that undermines rational decision making—kept the world within a stone's throw of apocalypse."
That "corrupted information ecosphere"? It means that Trump is still creating new disasters despite being out of office. Most notably, his endless lying about the 2020 presidential election has undermined both U.S. democracy and global security:
"While the new US administration made progress in reestablishing the role of science and evidence in public policy, corruption of the information ecosystem continued apace in 2021. One particularly concerning variety of internet-based disinformation infected America last year: Waves of internet-enabled lies persuaded a significant portion of the US public to believe the utterly false narrative contending that Joe Biden did not win the US presidential election in 2020. Continued efforts to foster this narrative threaten to undermine future US elections, American democracy in general, and, therefore, the United States' ability to lead global efforts to manage existential risk."
Additionally, the now-infamous January 6 insurrection that Trump incited over this "utterly false narrative" exposed how quickly such a falsehood could lead to a nuclear disaster:
"As the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol demonstrated, no country is immune from threats to its democracy, and in a state with nuclear-weapons-usable material and nuclear weapons, both can be targets for terrorists and fanatics. Notably, the insurrectionists came close to capturing Vice President Mike Pence and the 'nuclear football' that accompanies the vice president as the backup system for nuclear launch commands. More than 10 percent of those charged with crimes during the January 6th insurrection were veterans or active service members."
Of course, Trump's disinformation campaigns are not limited to the 2020 election. He's spent years spreading false conspiracy theories and spearheading attacks and accusations against everyone and everything that failed to demonstrate unquestioning support for him, including (but not limited to) scientists, doctors, schools and universities, the judicial system, the intelligence community, and the free press. Innumerable conservatives and other partisans have gleefully continued to promulgate his disinformation, with far-reaching negative consequences:
"Disinformation fomented outside the executive branch—including from some members of Congress and many state leaders—appears to have taken root in alarming and dangerous ways. Large fractions of Congress and the public continue to deny that Joe Biden legitimately won the presidential election, and their views on these matters appear to be hardening rather than moderating. Similar trends regarding COVID-related disinformation are apparent around the world, crippling the ability of public health authorities and medical science to achieve higher vaccination rates. Mask-wearing and social distancing are similarly discouraged by disinformation. ... Political attacks on institutions that provide societal continuity and store hard-won knowledge about how best to deal with problems continue apace."
The risk of a nuclear disaster remains a heightened concern. One area of particular concern was Russia's continued aggression towards Ukraine... and this was back on January 20, 2022, before Russia actually went ahead and invaded:
"Ukraine remains a potential flashpoint, and Russian troop deployments to the Ukrainian border heighten day-to-day tensions."
Trump's repeated refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, and his unilateral withdrawal from two of the three arms treaties with Russia (and his stated intention to let the third expire), are just some examples of how Trump spent his entire term in office allowing Russian aggression to grow essentially unchecked. But Russia is not the world's only nuclear threat. Trump's persistent incompetence in dealing with North Korea--plus his fawning over Kim Jong Un--allowed North Korea to continue to pursue its nuclear ambitions. Iran similarly ramped up its nuclear program after Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. Both countries are contributing to the Doomsday Clock's current setting:
"Other nuclear concerns, including North Korea's unconstrained nuclear and missile expansion and the (as yet) unsuccessful attempts to revive the Iran nuclear deal contribute to growing dangers. ... Iran continues to build an enriched uranium stockpile, insisting that all sanctions be removed before returning to talks with the United States on the JCPOA. The window of opportunity seems to be closing."
Finally, Trump managed to ruin President Biden's laudable progress on climate change, because Trump's conduct in office made it depressingly clear that such progress can be very short-lived:
"Progress achievable through the US political process is highly constrained and fragile, as any subsequent president may try to swing the pendulum backward."
In today’s world, digital transformation is key to progress. We’ve seen incredible changes, from simple walks in childhood to the marvels of technology today. These leaps show how our world has changed, thanks to innovations like artificial intelligence, blockchain, and autonomous systems.
These technologies are changing industries and improving our lives. They make things more efficient, secure,…
1.
I don’t think there’s been a recent technological advancement that’s been as influential and widely adopted as the Bluetooth headphone. It is fascinating to think of the progression of their mass adoption. The rise of new technologies frequently create an ‘eruption of feeling that overpowers reason’ (Mosco, 2004). I still remember when the AirPod came out, and was supported by a wave of…
Four surprises in the global race for green technologies
France is absent from the world podiums in the field of disruptive innovations likely to guarantee its economic sovereignty, according to a study by Fabrique de l'industrie[1]. All is not lost, however. Explanations.
At the time of the first progress report on the France 2030 program aimed at making up for the French industrial delay, the Fabrique de l'Industrie publishes a report[2] that serves as a warning. The conclusions that emerge from its examination of how disruptive technologies have emerged over the past decade are indeed bleak for France and the EU as a whole.
The United States and Asia in the lead
“We are immersed in the illusion that the EU is leading the way in the energy transition and the decarbonization of the economy. But the gap between the stated strategic ambition and the reality of the figures is striking,” underlines Vincent Charlet, general delegate of the ideas laboratory and co-author of the report of more than 70 pages.
An examination of twelve disruptive innovations, eight of which are directly linked to climate, reveals that it is the United States, Japan, South Korea and China that hold the upper hand. They are consistently among the four countries with the highest number of patents filed across all technologies examined.
Germany saves European honour
In agrofuels for aviation, quantum computers and messenger RNA[3], the United States alone holds more than half of the world's patents. Japan, China and South Korea are doing the same in hydrogen for transport, batteries for electric vehicles, photovoltaics and spintronics, even nanoelectronics “within a percentage point”, specifies the report.
There remain four areas where European countries occupy the top spot: offshore wind turbines, recycling of strategic metals, low-carbon steel and biological recycling of plastics. They are also in the leading quartet in eight out of twelve cases. But this is in six cases thanks to Germany alone.
Denmark, Finland and Sweden certainly stand out in offshore wind power and sustainable fuels for the aviation sector. But these two technologies are the lightest weights of the sample in the sense of the total number of patent filings granted. France for its part does not appear on any podium, moving from 5th to 9th place in the world.
The size of the country is not decisive
All is not lost as the authors of the report emphasize that it is not a question of size but of determination. They point to South Korea as proof: the undisputed leader in the twelve technologies studied, it is only twelfth in the world in terms of GDP and its economy is 1.6 times smaller than that of France.
In the eyes of the authors, the latest investment plan (PIE4)[4] outlines this determination by adopting a logic called “directed innovation” towards sectors and technologies deemed priority. Focusing on the criterion of rapid job creation would, however, threaten to result in sterile scattering, he warns.
The myth of the start-up nation
This plan must also be based on the right actors. The opportunity for the authors to twist the neck of the popular start-up nation concept. “The idea that start-ups play a decisive role in the emergence of disruptive innovations is undermined by the data: they rarely appear among the main patent applicants” and never in South Korea, Japan or in Germany, they warn.
On the other hand, they point to the preponderance of large companies, except in France where the large public research laboratories are leading, undoubtedly due to past deindustrialization. “When large companies give up, the ecosystem becomes fragile and start-ups are the first to suffer,” they conclude.
Source
Ninon Renaud, Quatre surprises dans la course mondiale aux technologies vertes, in: Les Echos,7-12-2023 ; https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/energie-environnement/quatre-revelations-sur-limpitoyable-course-mondiale-aux-technologies-vertes-2040016
[1] La Fabrique de l’industrie was created in October 2011 under an associative status under the 1901 law. Our board of directors brings together representatives of our financiers: the UIMM, France Industrie and the GIM. We also benefit from critical insights from the members of our orientation council: business leaders, representatives of trade unions and professional organizations, academic experts and media observers. They are the guarantors of the scientific quality, relevance and diversity of our work. https://www.la-fabrique.fr/fr/qui-sommes-nous/
[2] Sonia Bellit et Vincent Charlet : L’innovation de rupture, terrain de jeu exclusif des start-up ? L’industrie française face aux technologies-clés, Les Notes, 07/12/2023 ; https://www.la-fabrique.fr/fr/publication/linnovation-de-rupture-terrain-de-jeu-exclusif-des-start-up-lindustrie-francaise-face-aux-technologies-cles/
[3] In molecular biology, messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) is a single-stranded molecule of RNA that corresponds to the genetic sequence of a gene, and is read by a ribosome in the process of synthesizing a protein.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is wrong: Modeling an artificial intelligence regulatory agency after the FDA and the NRC is a terrible idea.
What a surprise. The Senate holds a hearing that concludes the government ought to license artificial technology. Why do we need to regulate AI applications? A lot of AI experts say that chatbots and other applications can flood our society with misinformation, or worse, disinformation. The only way to prevent that: regulate the technology.
People who advocate that might want to remember that the biggest single source of misinformation and disinformation right now is the federal government. Apparently it would like to be the only source of misinformation. That’s the holy grail for people in power, isn’t it: suppress all sources of information except the ones you control.
If we grant government power to control more sources of information than they already do, we’ll deserve the many bad outcomes that follow.
Startups can navigate the challenges and opportunities of the new economy and leverage disruptive technologies to drive growth and innovation. Read the blog to learn more.
The Challenges and Opportunities of the New Economy for Startups
Startups can navigate the challenges and opportunities of the new economy and leverage disruptive technologies to drive growth and innovation. Read the blog to learn more.
Narrow Body Aircraft Refurbishing to Create Over US$ 1.8 Bn Incremental Opportunity in Aircraft Refurbishing Market through 2031
Narrow Body Aircraft Refurbishing to Create Over US$ 1.8 Bn Incremental Opportunity in Aircraft Refurbishing Market through 2031
– Retrofit Fitting to Remain the Most Preferred in Aircraft Refurbishing Market
– Fact.MR’s latest report on aircraft refurbishing market offers detailed analysis on key drivers, restraints, and opportunities affecting growth through 2031. It studies the latest trends driving the demand across leading segments in terms of fitting type, aircraft type and refurbishing type. The report also…
