Since 1947, the "Doomsday Clock" has symbolized the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe (represented by midnight). As of January of 2022, the Clock remains as close to midnight as it has ever been in history. Why? Didn't the United States replace Donald Trump, who pretty much single-handedly drove the Doomsday Clock forward from 11:57:00 in 2016 to 11:57:30 in 2017, then to 11:58:00 in 2018 (and 2019), and then to 11:58:20 in 2020?
No question, the Biden administration did improve things:
"In 2021 the new American administration changed US policies in some ways that made the world safer: agreeing to an extension of the New START arms control agreement and beginning strategic stability talks with Russia; announcing that the United States would seek to return to the Iran nuclear deal; and rejoining the Paris climate accord. Perhaps even more heartening was the return of science and evidence to US policy making in general, especially regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. A more moderate and predictable approach to leadership and the control of one of the two largest nuclear arsenals of the world marked a welcome change from the previous four years. ...
"The February 2021 agreement between the United States and Russia to renew New START for five years is a decidedly positive development. This extension creates a window of opportunity to negotiate a future arms control agreement between the two countries that possess 90 percent of the nuclear weapons on the planet. The United States and Russia also agreed to start two sets of dialogues about how to best maintain 'nuclear stability' in the future: the Working Group on Principles and Objectives for Future Arms Control and the Working Group on Capabilities and Actions with Strategic Effects. These groups have met and in early 2022 are expected to report on initial results of the consultations, aimed at shaping future arms control agreements.
"Another bright spot was the Biden administration's announcements that it would seek to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran and offer to enter strategic stability talks with China. Although no talks between North Korea and the United States took place in 2021, the North Koreans have not resumed testing of nuclear weapons or long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). (Tests of shorter-range missiles have continued.) Finally, when the Biden administration began its Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) process, it announced that one specific goal would be to 'reduce the role of nuclear weapons' in US national security policy. ...
"US president [Biden] 'acknowledges climate change as a profound threat and supports international cooperation and science-based policy,' and we've seen a dramatic change in tone from the previous presidential administration. Recognizing that '[t]he effects we are seeing of climate change are the crisis of our generation,' Biden has indeed attempted to move forward quickly, reentering the United States in the Paris Agreement and announcing the United States' updated Paris emission pledge of a 50 percent reduction by 2030. He has also signaled an attentiveness to the connection between climate action and environmental justice, in both the domestic and international contexts. He has committed to making climate investments in disadvantaged communities within the United States, and at the UN General Assembly meeting he pledged to double climate financing to developing countries. ...
"The new US administration has done much to reestablish the role of scientists in informing public policy, and even more to minimize deliberate confusion and chaos emanating from the White House. Thoughtful deliberation—merely a promise in January 2021—appears to be realized more often today."
But this simply isn't enough to reverse the innumerable disasters that Trump caused, and is still causing:
"Despite laudable efforts by some leaders and the public, negative trends in nuclear and biological weapons, climate change, and a variety of disruptive technologies—all exacerbated by a corrupted information ecosphere that undermines rational decision making—kept the world within a stone's throw of apocalypse."
That "corrupted information ecosphere"? It means that Trump is still creating new disasters despite being out of office. Most notably, his endless lying about the 2020 presidential election has undermined both U.S. democracy and global security:
"While the new US administration made progress in reestablishing the role of science and evidence in public policy, corruption of the information ecosystem continued apace in 2021. One particularly concerning variety of internet-based disinformation infected America last year: Waves of internet-enabled lies persuaded a significant portion of the US public to believe the utterly false narrative contending that Joe Biden did not win the US presidential election in 2020. Continued efforts to foster this narrative threaten to undermine future US elections, American democracy in general, and, therefore, the United States' ability to lead global efforts to manage existential risk."
Additionally, the now-infamous January 6 insurrection that Trump incited over this "utterly false narrative" exposed how quickly such a falsehood could lead to a nuclear disaster:
"As the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol demonstrated, no country is immune from threats to its democracy, and in a state with nuclear-weapons-usable material and nuclear weapons, both can be targets for terrorists and fanatics. Notably, the insurrectionists came close to capturing Vice President Mike Pence and the 'nuclear football' that accompanies the vice president as the backup system for nuclear launch commands. More than 10 percent of those charged with crimes during the January 6th insurrection were veterans or active service members."
Of course, Trump's disinformation campaigns are not limited to the 2020 election. He's spent years spreading false conspiracy theories and spearheading attacks and accusations against everyone and everything that failed to demonstrate unquestioning support for him, including (but not limited to) scientists, doctors, schools and universities, the judicial system, the intelligence community, and the free press. Innumerable conservatives and other partisans have gleefully continued to promulgate his disinformation, with far-reaching negative consequences:
"Disinformation fomented outside the executive branch—including from some members of Congress and many state leaders—appears to have taken root in alarming and dangerous ways. Large fractions of Congress and the public continue to deny that Joe Biden legitimately won the presidential election, and their views on these matters appear to be hardening rather than moderating. Similar trends regarding COVID-related disinformation are apparent around the world, crippling the ability of public health authorities and medical science to achieve higher vaccination rates. Mask-wearing and social distancing are similarly discouraged by disinformation. ... Political attacks on institutions that provide societal continuity and store hard-won knowledge about how best to deal with problems continue apace."
The risk of a nuclear disaster remains a heightened concern. One area of particular concern was Russia's continued aggression towards Ukraine... and this was back on January 20, 2022, before Russia actually went ahead and invaded:
"Ukraine remains a potential flashpoint, and Russian troop deployments to the Ukrainian border heighten day-to-day tensions."
Trump's repeated refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, and his unilateral withdrawal from two of the three arms treaties with Russia (and his stated intention to let the third expire), are just some examples of how Trump spent his entire term in office allowing Russian aggression to grow essentially unchecked. But Russia is not the world's only nuclear threat. Trump's persistent incompetence in dealing with North Korea--plus his fawning over Kim Jong Un--allowed North Korea to continue to pursue its nuclear ambitions. Iran similarly ramped up its nuclear program after Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. Both countries are contributing to the Doomsday Clock's current setting:
"Other nuclear concerns, including North Korea's unconstrained nuclear and missile expansion and the (as yet) unsuccessful attempts to revive the Iran nuclear deal contribute to growing dangers. ... Iran continues to build an enriched uranium stockpile, insisting that all sanctions be removed before returning to talks with the United States on the JCPOA. The window of opportunity seems to be closing."
Finally, Trump managed to ruin President Biden's laudable progress on climate change, because Trump's conduct in office made it depressingly clear that such progress can be very short-lived:
"Progress achievable through the US political process is highly constrained and fragile, as any subsequent president may try to swing the pendulum backward."
The Council on Foreign Relations has a list of conflicts to watch. I’ll highlight a few below:
“U.S. military operations targeting transnational criminal groups escalate to direct strikes in Venezuela, destabilizing the Maduro government” – marked “probably or highly likely to occur in 2026” when this was written in December 2025. It took three days.
high likelihood, high impact: conflict over…
The New York Times makes a very scary claim here.
The second big change arises from China’s nuclear ambitions. The country’s nuclear expansion is running at an even faster pace than American intelligence officials anticipated two years ago, driven by President Xi Jinping’s determination to scrap the decades-long strategy of maintaining a “minimum deterrent” to reach or exceed the size of…
This prepping and survival post contains important information on using simple OTC antacids as a treatment for internal contamination with radioactive isotopes from nuclear fallout. The radioactive fallout might come from a nuclear power plant disaster, or a dirty bomb, or a nuclear bomb explosion. Regardless of the source, at least several different types of radioactive elements are released, and these isotopes can end up in the air, food, and water.
The most prevalent radioactive element in nuclear fallout is likely to be iodine-131 (a radioactive isotope of iodine). The treatment, as most preppers know, is potassium iodide (KI) or potassium iodate (KIO3) tablets. KI tablets are approved by the FDA for treating exposure to radioactive iodine. KIO3 tablets are suggested by the World Health Organization for the same purpose. The pills flood the body with safe non-radioactive iodine, reducing possible uptake of the radioactive iodine by the thyroid.
An August 1 press release from Japan's MHLW said no radioactive materials have been detected in the tap water of Fukushima prefecture, according to a survey conducted by the Japanese government's Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters. The government defines no detection as "no results exceeding the 'Index values for infants (radioactive iodine)'," and says "in case the level of radioactive iodine in tap water exceeds 100 Bq/kg, to refrain from giving infants formula milk dissolved by tap water, having them intake tap water … "Yet, on June 27, results were published from a study that found 15 residents of Fukushima prefecture had tested positive for radiation in their urine. Dr Nanao Kamada, professor emeritus of radiation biology at Hiroshima University, has been to Fukushima prefecture twice in order to take internal radiation exposure readings and facilitated the study."The risk of internal radiation is more dangerous than external radiation," Dr Kamada told Al Jazeera. "And internal radiation exposure does exist for Fukushima residents."According to the MHLW, distribution of several food products in Fukushima Prefecture remain restricted. This includes raw milk, vegetables including spinach, kakina, and all other leafy vegetables, including cabbage, shiitake mushrooms, bamboo shoots, and beef.The distribution of tealeaves remains restricted in several prefectures, including all of Ibaraki, and parts of Tochigi, Gunma, Chiba, Kanagawa Prefectures.Iwate prefecture suspended all beef exports because of caesium contamination on August 1, making it the fourth prefecture to do so.
Due to caesium contaminated straw, beef exports have been banned in four Japanese prefectures [EPA]
Jyunichi Tokuyama, an expert with the Iwate Prefecture Agricultural and Fisheries Department, told Al Jazeera he did not know how to deal with the crisis. He was surprised because he did not expect radioactive hot spots in his prefecture, 300km from the Fukushima nuclear plant."The biggest cause of this contamination is the rice straw being fed to the cows, which was highly radioactive," Tokuyama told Al Jazeera. Kamada feels the Japanese government is acting too slowly in response to the Fukushima disaster, and that the government needs to check radiation exposure levels "in each town and village" in Fukushima prefecture."They have to make a general map of radiation doses," he said. "Then they have to be concerned about human health levels, and radiation exposures to humans. They have to make the exposure dose map of Fukushima prefecture. Fukushima is not enough. Probably there are hot spots outside of Fukushima. So they also need to check ground exposure levels." Caldicott said people around the world should be concerned about the ongoing nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Radiation that continues to be released has global consequences.More than 11,000 tonnes of radioactive water has been released into the ocean from the stricken plant.
Scientists warn that tuna caught off the Pacific coastal prefecture in northern Japan are now at risk of being radioactive [EPA]
"Those radioactive elements bio-concentrate in the algae, then the crustaceans eat that, which are eaten by small then big fish," Caldicott said. "That's why big fish have high concentrations of radioactivity and humans are at the top of the food chain, so we get the most radiation, ultimately."On August 6, the 66th anniversary of the US nuclear bombing of Hiroshima, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said: "Regarding nuclear energy, we will deeply reflect over the myth that nuclear energy is safe. We will thoroughly look into the cause of the [Fukushima] accident, and to secure safety, we'll implement fundamental measures while also decreasing the degree of dependence on nuclear power generation, to aim for a society that does not rely on nuclear power."But doctors, scientists, agricultural experts, and much of the general public in Japan feel that a much more aggressive response to the nuclear disaster is needed. Kodama believes the government needs to begin a large-scale response in order to begin decontaminating affected areas. He cited Japan's itai itai disease, when cadmium poisoning from mining resulted in the government eventually having to spend 800 billion yen to decontaminate an area of 1,500 hectares. "How much cost will be needed if the area is 1,000 times larger?"
"The plant is still protected. This was an additional, a secondary, level of protection that we had put up," Jones said. "The plant remains protected to the level it would have been if the aqua berm had not been added."
oh okay. nobody panic. radiation never hurt anything.
