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Contrary to popular accounts, Nixon’s victory wasn’t predicated on opponent George McGovern’s ardent opposition to the Vietnam War. By 1972, a majority of the American voting public had grown sour on the war. The issue that Nixon rode back into the White House in a historical landslide (McGovern carried only Massachusetts and the District of Colombia) was busing.
Stan Goff
The presidential race was so close that the film may have been a factor in the outcome. In the first months after All the President’s Men’s appearance Democrat Jimmy Carter, a little-known governor from Georgia, suddenly emerged as a popular contender. Carter presented himself in the primaries and in the general election as the right person to cleanse American politics after Watergate. “I will not lie to you,” promised the Washington outsider. By the fall, however, Carter was stumbling. His 30-point lead had disappeared. The race was so tight that Jimmy Carter did not know he had been elected President until 3:30 AM. Carter won the popular vote by only 50.8% to 48.2%, and he took the electoral vote by just 297 to 240.
In such a tight contest, the film may have influenced voters’ thinking, but the movie was only one among numerous factors that could have affected judgments. Other difficulties that Gerald Ford encountered during the 1976 campaign probably had a greater impact on voter sentiment. The Republican Party had been weakened during a bitter primary fight in which Gerald Ford had to fend off harsh criticism from candidate Ronald Reagan. Ford sought Reagan’s support after winning the GOP nomination, but during the campaign Reagan said very little publicly in Ford’s behalf. News on the economic front hurt Ford, too. By September, 1976 reports showed that business growth had stalled and unemployment and inflation were rising. During a televised debate in October, Ford mistakenly claimed “there is no Soviet domination in Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration.” His statement contrasted sharply with the facts. And, of course, Gerald Ford’s pardon of Richard Nixon upset many Americans. After President Ford announced that he would absolve Nixon in 1974, 53% of Americans surveyed opposed the decision. Only 38% agreed with it.
Reagan’s 1980 campaign was pure Goldwater. He promised sweeping tax cuts and a “return to spiritual and moral values.” He pledged to take on Communists abroad and welfare “cheaters” at home. Most controversially, Reagan echoed Goldwater’s racist dog whistle by pledging to restore “states’ rights.” By following small-government conservatism, Reagan told the nation, America would be restored to “a shining city on a hill.” Reagan’s supporters cast their candidate as the heir to Goldwater’s throne. “Barry Goldwater was the philosopher,” John Sears, Reagan’s campaign manager, explained. “Ronald Reagan is the articulator.” For good reason, conservatives saw Reagan’s victory over Jimmy Carter in the general election as the complete vindication of Goldwater conservatism. By winning, Reagan placed views once seen as fringe conservatism squarely at the center of the GOP and demonstrated that all it takes is one fortuitous election to fundamentally shift the American political landscape.
What Democrats Still Don’t Get About George McGovern
But the Democrats’ fear of McGovernism is misplaced. McGovern didn’t lose because he was too far to the left. He lost because he was facing a popular incumbent presiding over a booming economy. Moreover, the Democrats’ belief that they need to steer clear of McGovernism, assuming it was ever correct, now looks increasingly misguided. With each passing decade, the types of voters drawn to McGovern’s 1972 campaign have become a larger and larger share of the American electorate, while the issues championed by McGovern have become more and more salient.
What Democrats Still Don’t Get About George McGovern
The 1972 and 1984 blowout losses conform closely to electoral models that measure vote totals based on underlying economic conditions, without taking any account of candidate identity or ideology. The Democrats were doomed no matter who they nominated. If the primary race continues to tighten, Clinton supporters will no doubt continue to spook Democrats with the fatal visions of 1972 and 1984. These are but McGoverns of the mind, false creations conjured by elite pundits and party officials. They offer no actual evidence that can be applied to the 2016 general election.
Why Bernie Can Win
