The electron trade recovers uncertainly Investment value has already been appeared
The growth rate of the global semi-conductive income from sales begins to drop since 2004, and then been maintaining the low-order operation situation all the time. And because of impact on world economy of loan crisis once of U.S.A., oil price, metal forward price and global inflation of the high enterprise at present at the same time, the uncertainty that the electron trade recovers is strengthened greatly.
In cases there is no great change in the demand of downstream industry, the global electron trade will keep developing steadily, we estimate tentatively amplification lie between 4.5% - 5.5% on the whole.
Chinese electronic devices and components trade still keep high-speed development, but face the pressure too. Because rising, petroleum, metal of labor cost,etc. price of raw material run high at the same time, it influences the earning power of enterprises to some extent that the entreprise cost rises. But because the general electronic devices and components trade belong to technology-intensively or the fund is intensive, this kind of influence comes to talk smaller than the traditional manufacturing industry. As to the thing that we estimate about 20%- 21.5% speedup of the Chinese information industry tentatively, about 30%-35% of income speedup of electronic devices and components trade.
The global electron trade has uncertainty to recover at present, but pass a adjustment, rounds of bottom that cycle change at whole the intersection of A and absolute estimate value of stock market close to already at present, the absolute estimate value level of the Chinese electron trade has already created the new low point. Though it is still a bit high to compare with the international estimate value level at present, it is a secular trend too to be in line with international standards, this will be a long-term repeated course. We are according to long-term development and growth of electronic devices and components of China, has already had certain investment value at present, grade us to think to " in pace with large city " as to the trade Grading comparatively reasonable.
Because uncertainty exists in economic situation and market environment at present, though investment value has already reflected, but we think proceed from safe angle, advise investor pay close attention to the fact gross margin percentage high and growth confirm and the intersection of productivity and the intersection of expanding ability and better Company pay close attention in the trade. What we proposed paying close attention to is: Long electric science and technology, treasure hi-tech of fields lying fallow in rotation, ultrasonic electron,etc.; Estimate value poor at the same time and basic side of Company there is no great change, once the market takes a favorable turn and obtains the ultra prospective earnings, benefit science and technology,etc. can also pay close attention to such as growing.