The PC and its ecosystem are dying
The PC and its ecosystem are finally dying.
These are interesting times, as HP has just confirmed by abandoning its iPad killer after just 7 week. As the wheel turns, I am reminded that each of the MarketingXD team's successful businesses has targeted a different computer ecosystem:
Level 9 Computing targeted games computers, with lead versions for Sinclair Spectrum and Atari ST. Then we would quickly port games to other computers, such as the Amiga. This ecosystem was swept away by PCs and Games Consoles.
Email Reaction targeted Wintel on desktop and server, with lead versions for IE (until MS lost the plot) and then Firefox browsers.
MarketingXD's next system will target cloud, smartphones and tablets - Amazon, iPhone and iPad (Aii!) - developing on Linux. We will release on other phones and PCs, but the lead versions will be Aii.
I recommend that you take a similar approach. It's still too early for most business users to abandon PCs, but choose tools that also work with Aii.
Several items of recent news inform our decision:
Amazon has a huge market presence in cloud and their tech is good enough. They are the weakest of my predictions: Amazon seem very focused and I expect them to keep their leadership position, but there are rivals.
iPhone is an excellent piece of kit. I expect it to remain ahead of Android phones, because Google's OS is still (unfairly) a lawsuit-magnet. And it will beat Windows Phone 7 phones because that has Windows inside - few cool startups choose Windows - and it lacks support from retailers.
iPad. Sales figures from DisplaySearch show mobile PCs flat, but tablets roaring ahead, with Apple overtaking HP for top spot in mobile. Other reports show that iPad is utterly dominant over Android in tablets (and HP has given up), a situation which I expect to be entrenched by a new "retina" iPad next Spring and a bunch of patents on the technology that Apple is funding.
What is associated with this new ecosystem choice?
We, like most startups, are not targeting PCs. HP's failed gamble shows they, as a PC manufacturer, don't have faith in this market either and were willing to take an extreme risk to diversify. Also PC maker, Acer, just posted its first loss in a decade. And touch screens are growing 10x faster than other displays. The traditional PC market has passed its peak; it will gradually wither away over the next 10 years.
Our products will be "Web Apps".
Flash, Silverlight and similar client-side technologies are irrelevant.
Touch is the primary input method of the future. Our products will work well with a mouse and hardware keyboard, but they will work with touch first.
We will need two main versions of the UI, because iPhone and iPad are very different sizes.
NoSQL and NoMicrosoft - using a FOSS stack - to keep costs down.
- Pete
Picture: "The image depicted here is an early medieval Wheel of Fortune, from the illuminated manuscript Hortus Deliciarum (Garden of Delights) by Herrad of Hohenbourg" - Eccentric Scholar, TarotSoul Blog
















