#fantasy draft advice

[graysalmanac]

If I Was Drafting...Round 3

Skipping the preamble, we are getting into the meat now. Slice and dice. Cold cuts abound. I think I do some of my best work in rounds 3-7 and I hope you find some new insight over the next few posts to help you with your drafts.

ROUND THREE

1. Kelvin Benjamin (ALL STARS BABY) | You like that? Yeah, that’s right. I did go three WR in a row and I don’t have once hesitation about it. All three of these receivers have the ability to put up 20+ point fantasy games each week. If all three hit their stride at the same time, it could be a struggle choosing who to play each week. I won’t have to look at WR for the next five rounds while everyone else with tailbacks already are clamoring to catch up.

TEAM ALL STARS BABY (1) WR Odell Beckham Jr. (2) WR Sammy Watkins (3) WR Kelvin Benjamin

2. Lamar Miller (BOUT IT BOUT IT) | Maybe you’re wondering why I didn’t go the same direction as the previous team and draft another receiver, and if so here is why: What is left currently does not fit my scheme for this particular team. If I went with Allen, Thomas or Landry I think that would be a bit early for any of those guys, plus I feel that the top of the remaining tailbacks looked better than what is coming down the pipe later when this team selects again. Miller is coming into a place where his touches will increase two fold and he is a welcome addition to an offense in need of playmakers that stay healthy.

TEAM BOUT IT BOUT IT (1) WR Antonio Brown (2) WR Mike Evans (3) RB Lamar Miller

3. Aaron Rodgers (CALL YOUR MOM) | Top-tier running back; check. Top-tier wide-out; check. How about we take the best passer in the game to round out the nucleus of anchors? Okay, give us. Maybe it’s a little early, but not by many picks. He could go in a few spots and I wouldn’t have hesitated to take him even with the next teams pick. He will comeback from what many think of as a dismal fantasy season and I am very excited to see how far this offense can fly in fantasy land.

TEAM CALL YOUR MOM (1) RB Todd Gurley (2) WR Amari Cooper (3) QB Aaron Rodgers

4. Keenan Allen (DON’T BLINK) | As I said, Rodgers on this team would have been really nice, but we adjust and I’m not unhappy with the direction I must take. I think the balance here is to be found in receiver though and Allen is a player primed for comeback numbers in an offense with a rocket-arm QB who was missing his best option last year. I like Allen as my WR1 even though he is probably more WR2 value at the moment and believe he will get back to that elite level this season.

TEAM DON’T BLINK (1) RB Adrian Peterson (2) RB Carlos Hyde (3) WR Keenan Allen

5. Arian Foster (EREYBODY SCORIN) | Do his health and age concern you? Me too, but his situation in Miami is legit and the option after him is an easy pick up away. IF (big IF, see what I did there?) he can stay healthy and the Miami offensive line can remain in one piece he has the ability to be a top 10 back again. Coupled with Forte & Jones, I like all of them to make at least 10 points a week and that is aiming low. Some may have reached for Elliott here and if you do that’s on you, but for this team’s current outlook I like Arian.

TEAM HOT FOR TOUCHES (1) WR Julio Jones (2) RB Matt Forte (3) RB Arian Foster

6. Cam Newton (FUNKZONE) | With two elite WR’s already who have solid arms tossing them long balls, I felt it prudent to option the next best fantasy QB after Rodgers, who actually was the best fantasy QB last season. Newton should be good to go with his weapon in Benjamin back and a nice schedule to soften the super bowl defeat. 

TEAM FUNKZONE (1) WR Dez Bryant (2) WR Brandin Cooks (3) QB Cam Newton

7. Le’Veon Bell (GET IT IN) | Let me preface that I do not like this pick at all. I do not think he should be drafted in the first five rounds, much less at all really in anything smaller than a 10 team league, BUT…BUT he does command tremendous respect in the fantasy world when healthy and unpunished. I plan to snag Williams later and that will be a decent enough 1-2 punch even when Bell returns. It won’t be easy, but Robinson & Green should cushion whatever discomfort I feel from this risky pick.

TEAM GET IT IN (1) WR A.J. Green (2) WR Allen Robinson (3) RB Le’Veon Bell

8. Demaryius Thomas (HOT FOR TOUCHES) | There could be a renaissance for Thomas this season and that is a far-fetched idea since he really didn’t have a terrible year last season. He should get a tremendous amount of looks from whomever is under center and can easily make up for any shortcomings on Jeffrey’s part week to week.

TEAM HOT FOR TOUCHES (1) RB Devonta Freeman (2) WR Alshon Jeffrey (3) WR Demaryius Thomas

9. T.Y. Hilton (IN THIS BITCH) | The thing about T.Y. is that he’s good he’s just not great. His serviceability will be unpredictable this season with the increased roles of Moncrief and Gore in the offense but he should do nicely next to Hopkins. Luck is going to get him the ball, it’s just a matter of how often and can Hilton keep the catches coming with consistent play.

TEAM IN THIS BITCH (1) WR DeAndre Hopkins (2) RB Jamaal Charles (3) WR T.Y. Hilton

10. Ezekiel Elliott (JOKERS WILD) | Since I have another pick soon into the next round I don’t mind taking a stab at a high-reward player. He probably will go a lot earlier than this in your draft but I find this to be precisely where a rookie’s value belongs; middle to end of the third round. If he stays healthy he has the makings of the next Gurley and if he does that and Lacy bounces back I have a stable RB core that should take me into December.

TEAM JOKERS WILD (1) RB Eddie Lacy (2) WR Brandon Marshall (3) RB Ezekiel Elliott

11. Jarvis Landry (KING ME) | All I see is raining receptions with this team. Landry is a beast when it comes to targets and catches, and I am not dissuaded by the addition of Parker or Foster; Landry is Tannehill’s top target and has his confidence. If anything I see an uptick in end zone usage which is even better for this nucleus’ potential to pop each week.

TEAM KING ME (1) RB David Johnson (2) RB Mark Ingram (3) WR Jarvis Landry

Since the next pick gets back to back selections, I want to take stock of the board before we get there, so what’s the next best grouping of players that remain in each major position?

QB Russell Wilson Drew Brees Andrew Luck WR Jordy Nelson Julian Edelman Jeremy Maclin Eric Decker

RB Doug Martin Jonathan Stewart Latavius Murray Frank Gore Melvin Gordon Thomas Rawls Jeremy Langford

I like Brees, Nelson and Edelman in that order. The majority of what is at the top of the ADP list seems like it isn’t worth this draft pick. When drafting at the end and beginning I like to check out the next potential 20-30 picks since I may not get a chance to draft many of those players as most of them will be gone by the time I get to select again. That said, it really doesn’t matter who I take here as the next pick is where I will take who I should in this position.

12. Randall Cobb (LAST PICK) | Not only do I see Cobb outperforming Nelson this season, I see him potentially having one of the best seasons in recent WR history thanks to three things: 1) Rodgers 2) Schedule 3) Health. All of these factors should remain steady and will boost his value each week should he capitalize on the return of his running mate. Pair him with Gronk and McCoy, I’ve got a few lasers primed for stun.

TEAM LAST PICK (1) TE Rob Gronkowski (2) RB LeSean McCoy (3) WR Randall Cobb

[sportchilada-blog]

Robbies World: 2013 FANTASY FOOTBALL SLEEPERS

by Rob Gilligan

If you are a serious, no-nonsense, balls-to-the-wall fantasy football player like I am, then you already know what I am about to say, so feel free to skip ahead a bit.  As for the rest of you, here goes: there is no offseason in fantasy football.

Right now you should be paying attention to who, among the teams in the playoffs, is getting the ball and how much they are getting it.  Bernard Pierce’s game against the Colts told me more about him then all 16 games of the regular season did combined.  To prove my point, I submit the fact that Matthew Berry, the preeminent fantasy guru, has already released his top 200 players for 2013 (http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/8809337/matthew-berry-fantasy-football-ranks-2013), which got me thinking.  I know its early, but I immediately identified more than a handful of players whom I think were undervalued based on his initial rankings.  In the words of fantasy athletics these are known as “sleepers”.  So here you go, for your reading pleasure I submit my list of 2013 fantasy football sleepers.  And just so we are on the same page,  my definition of  a “sleeper” is a player who will outperform his average draft position by no less than 10 spots, or one full standard league round.  So a fifth round sleeper would be expected to perform as well, if not better than, a player selected in the fourth round.  So, without further ado, here they are.

·         #53 Greg Jennings, WR22, 6th Round.  In 2012 the 22nd best WR was Steve Smith of the Carolina Panthers with his 73 receptions for 1,174 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Jennings missed most of 2012 with an injury but did show he was back at 100% in Green Bay’s season finale in which he caught 8 balls for 120 yards and 2 TD’s.  He will be one of the most highly coveted free agents this offseason and at only 30 years old should have no problem being a top 15 WR next year worthy of a selection within the first five rounds of the draft.  1200 yards and 8 touchdowns are easily attainable.  Even if he were to stay in Green Bay it changes nothing as Jennings is Rodgers favorite target.

·         #69 Torrey Smith, WR29, 7th Round.  In 2013 the 29th best WR was Austin Miles of the Dallas Cowboys with his 946 yards and 6 touchdowns.  In 2012, Smith’s second year in the NFL, he had 984 receiving yards and 10 TD’s.  Traditionally, a wide receiver usually really starts to come into his own during his third year in the league.  Anyone who watched the Baltimore-Denver AFC Divisional game last week knows that it is laughable to actually think that Smith will regress in 2013.  Barring any unforeseen setbacks, if you’re on the clock in the fourth round and he’s still available then he has the potential to be the steal of your draft. 

·         #70 Vick Ballard, RB25, 7th Round.  In 2012 the 25th best running back was Willis McGahee and his 952 total yards and four touchdowns.  Come on!  What the Colts have going on the offensive side of the ball is something special.  The Donald Brown era is all but over.  I fully expect Ballard to enter 2013 as their primary, if not feaure, back who will get all the goal line work.  In today’s NFL no primary+goal line back lasts until the 7th round of a fantasy draft.  Barring a move via the draft or something unexpected during free agency, Ballard is no worse than a top 15 RB worth selecting during the first five rounds of the draft.

·         #86 Jacquizz Rodgers, RB29, 9th Round.  The 29th best running back of 2012 was Denver’s Knowshon Moreno and his 748 total yards and 5 total TD’s.  Much of my argument for Rodgers is the same as above for Ballard.  Michael Turner’s role in the Atlanta offense is being reduced, if not phased out entirely by next year, and Rodgers is who they are going to turn to.  To sum it up, as a rookie, in a part time role, Rodgers totaled 836 yards of offense and 2 TD’s.  With him having an increased role next year, there is no reason not to think that he won’t compile another combined 400 yards of offense and an additional 4-6 TD’s.  He is an ideal flex candidate with RB2 upside worth selecting by the 6th round.

·         #89 Josh Gordon, WR40, 9th Round.  In 2012 the 41st best WR was Santana Moss and his 592 yards and 8 TD’s.  Josh Gordon was selected by the Cleveland Browns in the 2012 supplemental draft.  What that means, the nuts-and-bolts of it at least, is instead of joining his team in April like all the rest of the rookies did, he didn’t join the Browns until July. But that didn’t stop him from leading the Browns in receiving yards with 805 receiving TD’s with 5. And, oh by the way, did I mention he didn’t even play a down of competitive football in 2011 because of off the field problems?  At 6’3” 225lbs Gordon has the potential to be a star in the NFL and should be drafted as a WR3 with serious WR1 potential no later than the 6th round.

·         #90 TY Hilton, WR41, 9th Round.  In 2012 the 41st best WR was Larry Fitzgerald and his fantasy season-ruining 798 yards and 4 TD’s.  In 2012 Hilton, a rookie, had 927 yards and 7 TD’s.   506 of those yards and 5 TD’s came over Hilton’s final seven games, which means to me, as the season progressed, he and fellow rookie Andrew Luck, really began to develop some chemistry.  Next year Reggie Wayne, who Matthew Berry lists as his 13th best WR, 37th overall, turn 35.  I expect Wayne to produce closer to where Mr. Berry projects Hilton to be and vice-versa.  I’ll say it again, what Indianapolis has brewing on the offensive side of the ball is something special and fantasy owners had better pay attention.

·         #97 Kendall Wright, WR46, 10th Round.  In 2012 the 46th best WR was Donnie Avery with 793 yards and 3 TD’s.  Last year, as a rookie, Wright led the Titans in both receptions, 64, and targets, 104. His 626 yards were good for second on the team and his 4 touchdowns put him in a four-way tie for the team lead.  I expect him to easily surpass those numbers in 2013.  Why?  If for no better reason than we are not even through January yet, and Kenny Britt has already had to talk to the police about a shooting/stabbing.  There is no way this guy lasts another seven months without some type of off the field incident which will undoubtedly negatively impact his fantasy value.  Wright is a steal as early as the 8th round and should be viewed as a WR3 with WR2 upside.

·         #119 David Wilson, RB41, 12th Round.  In 2012 the 41st best fantasy football was Bilal Powell and his 577 total yards and 4 TD’s.  I know, Wilson can’t pass-block, I get it.  He does everything else at a nearly elite level.  The whole pass-blocking thing will get figured out, the Giants need Wilson on the field starting game one in 2013 and 1,000 combined yards, 8 total TD’s is what I set the minimum bar at.  Draft as a flex no later than round 8 and expect big time production from him as you become the envy of your draft.

·         #132 Bernard Pierce, RB45, 14th Round.  In 2012 the 45th best fantasy running back was LaRod Stephens-Howling with 463 total yards and 4 TD’s.  If in 2013 you own Ray Rice, than you need to also draft Pierce.  He is a necessary handcuff that may wind up sneaking into your lineup, even with Ray Rice playing, as a viable flex option.  You don’t take a player in the third round of the NFL draft, as Baltimore did with Pierce, to have him sit on the bench.  The Ravens will find a way to get the ball into Pierce’s hands and I expect him to make the most of his opportunities. 

·         #135 Kendall Hunter, RB 48, 14th Round.  In 2012 David Wilson was the 48th best fantasy running back with 395 total yards and 5 TD’s.  Before tearing his Achilles tendon, Hunter was doing a great job as Frank Gore’s backup, averaging 5.2ypc.  Hunter is another player who falls under the category of must-have handcuff with serious upside.  Frank Gore had a superb 2012 campaign with 1,200+ yards and 8 TD’s but will be 30 next year and at some point he will start to slow down.  I’d feel comfortable taking Hunter in the 10th round knowing, at the very least, if Gore were to get banged up, then I am sitting on a lottery ticket by way of having a RB1 on my bench.  (On a side note, if LaMichael James were to be #2 on the 2013 SF depth chart, and not Hunter, then insert him here instead.)

·         #141 Ronnie Hillman, RB51, 15th Round.  The 51st best fantasy RB in 2012 was Maurice Jones-Drew who got hurt in the Jaguars’ sixth game of the year.  Another young, talented back, who was a third round draft pick, playing behind a productive, but aging (by NFL running back standards) veteran.  Willis McGahee will be 32 years old next year and can not be counted on to carry a full workload, which is where Hillman comes in.  Draft him around round 10 and you won’t be disappointed.

[sportchilada-blog]

The Sports Boneyard: Last Minute Draft Gems

5 Mid Round RB Gems

by Kevin Hunt

They say a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

I have no idea what that means and it has no relevance to this article.

They also say Fantasy football drafts are not won or lost in round 1. I agree and that is why if you can’t grab Rice, McCoy or Foster with your first pick, just draft Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Calvin Johnson, or Stafford. The last thing you want to do is to draft two QBs in the later rounds and play the guessing game every week, unless you want to spend a whole bunch of Sundays smashing the TV remote off your head when you play the wrong guy. Drafts are won in the middle rounds by picking undervalued players, round after round. Try to win each round so at the end of the year you can look back and realize you made the best pick in a lot of individual rounds.

Below are 5 RB’s that will not only allow you to draft a QB in round #1, but also win these rounds (3-7). All of these players will outproduce their current average draft rankings (per ESPN as of 8/27/12).

(1) Michael Turner (ADP #35 overall)

With the exception of perhaps Snooki, nobody is getting hated on more than Turner. They say he’s old and a step slow for Atlanta’s new high octane passing offense. He’s only 30 and has had 1340 rushing yards and double digit touchdowns for the 4th year in a row. Atlanta plays the easiest schedule in the league against the run. He will punch in a slew of 1 yard TDs and get plenty of 4th quarter, clock killing yards. Last year Atlanta and Pittsburgh threw like crazy but when the regular season started, they ran the ball. This guy should probably be a late 1st or early 2nd pick AND HE’S GOING IN THE 4TH ROUND!

(2) Ahmad Bradshaw (ADP #47 overall)

Last year Ray Rice got a boost when McGahee the TD vulture left for Denver. Ray capitalized by grabbing all those extra TDs. Well Brandon Jacobs and his 7 TD’s left for SF, so I am expecting Bradshaw to snag all those leftover TDs. Although it’s not like Bradshaw was lacking in the TD department; he had 11 in 12 games last year. The knock on him is that he is injury prone. So is McFadden and he’s going in the 1st round in a lot of drafts. And unlike McFadden, Bradshaw has a clear handcuff, David Wilson. When you grab an “injury-prone” RB, reach a little to grab their back up (9th round to be extra safe).

(3) Doug Martin (ADP #71 overall)

He would be a 3rd round pick if you were sure he was going to grab the RB1 position from Blount. All indications is that he will do so. He will run behind the NFL’s most expensive offensive line that also just added playmaker Vincent Jackson. He is fast rising up the charts so look for him in the 4th or 5th.

(4) Willis McGahee (ADP #51 overall)

He is the lead back for a John Fox coached team (he loves to run) that just added Peyton Manning. Rookie Hillman is not a threat to take carries but is a clear handcuff in case of injury. He went over 100

yards 7 times last season. He only had 4 TD’s but Jesus Tebow stole 4 rushing TDs from within the 10 yard line.

(5) Peyton Hillis (ADP #92 overall)

Hillis is the biggest draft value on the board. KC upgraded its offensive line and Hillis has his coach back that helped him score 13 times two years ago. Hillis battled a contract dispute, the Madden curse, and injuries last year. He is looking to bounce back. KC won’t push Jamal Charles too hard, so expect Hillis to get a fair share of carries, plus all the goal-line work. KC’s offense is by no means a juggernaut, but they do play in an awful division and Hillis is going in the 10th round.

Some other sleepers to consider even later:

TD Vulture:   Michael Bush (Chicago)- could score 8 TDs

Back Up RB:   Ben Tate (Houston)- pray for Foster injury

Don’t trust the starter RB (I):  Robert Turbin (Seattle)- starter Lynch just got paid

Don’t trust the starter RB (II):  Toby Gerhardt (Minnesota)- No way AP is back, right?

Good Luck with your drafts!