Archive Of Our Own has outpaced fanfiction.net
In 2015, the rate of new works started per day on the non-profit archive exceeded that of the older fanfiction.net, and this fan-run project is set to surpass the fastest growth of either archive in 2017.
Below the cut, I explain where these numbers come from, look more closely at the seasonal variation in each archive, and the overall pace of fanworks being posted.
[Hey, FYI, There’s a more recent post comparing AO3 and FFN over here. It doesn’t replicate all that’s below but it goes deeper into the workings of each and describes how many works have been removed from these fanwork archives. Because that is quite a story!]
Where did these numbers come from?
I don’t have a secret contact on the inside or anything. These numbers come from information we all have access to: the numbers in the urls of individual works.
https://www.fanfiction.net/s/4457115
http://archiveofourown.org/works/5498423
Both archives assign numbers consecutively to each work started, so by looking at the nodes on works from one day to the next, we can estimate the number of new nodes assigned in the intervening time. Not every work started gets published, so these numbers are a bit higher than the actually works available to read on the archives, but it’s close. Add a little smoothing, clear up some odd moments from bot infestations or the like, and we get the plot above describing the approximate number of works posted everyday for the last 6+ years. (More details available from a similar analysis in 2015)
What does this say about AO3 and FFNet?
As we can see here, Archive of Our Own had a humble beginning. It started slow, with a few beta users joining per day to import their own works from other repositories. I wonder what people expected of the archive when it was only growing by a couple hundred works per day. Quite remarkably, this archive does not appear to be slowing down: the median daily new work rate increasing by 30% or more in each of the last three years.
Although established much earlier, Fanfiction.net has started to decline. Since 2012, the number of works started per day has gradually been decreasing. It’s still the go to place for a number of fan communities, and the works it has accumulated over the years are extremely important, but one has to wonder why it has been steadily losing steam for the last three years. Maybe more new fandoms are getting established on AO3, or Wattpad (the other major anglophone archive used for fan fiction).
Seasonal Variation
The rate of new works on these fanwork archives is far from steady. The bumps and dips in the messy plot above reports peaks and valleys that repeat every year. Below is a plot of these seasonal effects, reporting the average ratio of rates we see on these days in 2014-2016, compared to annual averages. (here is an interactive version)
Both archives see a huge burst of activity at the end of December and beginning of January. This coincides with a time of a lot of fanwork challenges and gifts, Yuletide and all that. There is also a lot of activity around Valentine’s day.
One of the greatest differences between the two archives can be seen in June. Fanfiction.net sees close to a 20% increase (1.2) in works started during the first half of this month, while AO3 stays closer to the average (1). I wonder if this jump of activity on fanfiction.net coincides with the beginning of summer vacation for a lot of the younger writers.
AO3 seems to have a strong dip in posting rates from August to November, but this deceptive, confused by the fact that the archives rate of growth is still increasing. Instead of a great fall in productivity, the number of works started daily during these months is even with the average over the past year.
Fanfiction is still a big deal
Whatever the position taken by the court of public opinion, fanfiction seems to be as popular as ever. Yellow dots on the plot below show to the total median works started per day on AO3 and FFNet. Last year, close to 5000 works were started every day, and that pace looks to be growing still.
Fanfiction is posted on many other sites too, mixed with other content on dreamwidth and wattpad, or archives dedicated to fiction in specific languages or fandoms. Add to that the platforms most popular for other fanworks, like art, videos, podfics, meta, and crafts, and I wouldn’t dare estimate the productivity of transformative fandom. Too many great things.