New Post has been published on TRADE MASTER TEAM
New Post has been published on https://trademasterteam.com/forex-trading-methods/may-30-octafx-forex-fundamental-analysis-with-yohay-elam/23559
May 30 - OctaFX Forex Fundamental Analysis with Yohay Elam
most popular procedure boom then we're going to discuss the UK analysis with tomm dollar move on to the Canadian guard with AutoCAD and finish with us million dollar so top stories and marketed the latest important piece of years was that you US GDP was upgraded to one point two percent that's good news means stronger go raises the chances of rate hike if this were the only data set data piece alone the other hand has durable goods orders missing expectations with 0.4% the Fed watches goes with this figure as it looks at and it reflects investment ok future and row it was quite weak on the political front so we're not going stuff too much about drugs today but in recent months all the issues in Washington signed in taxes markets and a bitter worries came from North Korea which shifted once again I miss Ellison was the tenth time this year and it causes some jitters in markets and it helps the safe haven yet of course with your sellers and most important thing and enough is will the Fed rates or not raise interest rates in June hype or no hype so the latest that we heard is from Williams that you want bullsh in the economy but tonight just before the show we also heard from board was a bit more skeptical about growth and about inflation of course website we had a second meeting minutes these cats and Dallas I'm not the members of the said on one hand they want to tighten monetary policy relatively soon the other hand they want to see more evidence okay and the Fed remains they are the predecessor not presently stronger data are going to raise rates and we're going to have a stronger dollar if we have weaker data there's going to be weaker dollars and Freud is not from perils that is a huge event that is the key especially wages there as enormous markets replacing with 84% chance Refik inland tune in my opinion is way too high and way too optimistic for do so the next big events if you're trading your starters dollar again and that today Tuesday we have 12:30 GMT all times are GMT the core PC price index to make some I'm not so busy morning but this is the inflation figures here is develop north and recently it has been bit low so expecting the downgrade from one point six to one point five and that's the cat even further doubt under a second further hurt the dog we have the consumer confidence coming afterwards consumers in the US are still relatively confident the net was good plan we have number three or fourth affair they would say well radar speaking at five TMP she's usually enough if she talks about website that's very will is very positive for clear star if she remains cautious it's not good new and on Thursday no big event unless a certain we have a big team sport the non comparison citing the ATP natural perils for the private sector and of the Java claims the weekly barometer of just in America as another important thing is the is a manufacturing PMI so certainly is also a busy day now but this time do not have the ASM non-manufacturing PMI so that there is a higher element of surprise for the biggest events with the US nonprofit watch out for wage is not actual gaining jobs not the headline job mean it could be 200 220 180 it's not a total disaster or an amazing surprise the focus is on wages less than wages were two and a half percent year-over-year bitch is pointing serious bitch level and because review salaries they climbed more towards free person it's good for US dollar raising the chances of racing in June okay dollar yen when I have about us are when we wish to talk about the ethical most sensitive character for us indicators also has lots of volatility compared with your dollar we lately it's course Rises with chances of a rate hike the strength of the earth dollar involvement President Donald Trump is in trouble that is because the president as a candidate you promise to cut taxes and also build roads bridges infrastructure that would work the u.s. economy would be restored with inflation but when he's in trouble in trouble he has enacted agenda a problem geopolitical world not only because they're worried for us growth but also because and as a Japanese yen in a safe haven currency when things go wrong in Japanese currency and I received big people flop in the Japan evidence and trouble comes from Japan's neighbors North Korea in the most recent case okay and now let's look at the chart of the dollar yen will and note a few important lines here so this is the and dollar yen daily chart I focus on the big technical level of support resistance we're currently a bit lower one 1098 okay yes under when weapons support appears at 110 20 and 108 and telling it to a cycle load resistance is up here map-21 12 and high resistance is 114 30 which was the cycle hi let's go back to our presentation and continue with the euro the common currency we had testimony dying ECB president mario draghi he was not worried about risks to rope but he said that inflation wages remain subdued suddenly widgets become also important for eurozone German business confidence is high for purchasing managers index in exit and the economy here the yourself in is growth we have non financial lending rising in 2.4 percent Iceland 2009 before the crisis cut really need and growth in the eurozone is higher than in the US during percent order a reporter that's two percent Dynamite's compared to length went through in the u.s. okay politics also look better in the eurozone but certainly Greece coming back and debt relief remains the sticking point between the creditors of which is between the IMF and the EU in the past three years Greece has been on the back burner but it's certainly coming back to the limelight the things could explode globe in July okay but it may take some time at the more we do not know if Greece is going to receive the next tranche of the bailout funds if there is no resolution currently this not a big story then the euro will be in trouble but other politics look good a current considered a recently elected in Morocco and pro-market ray okay he stresses his position towards the parliamentary elections in France and his German counterpart Angela Merkel has significantly the opinion polls no to her level Martin Schultz he's also a pro-european for markets of German politics look very stable a source of worry could come from Italy we might have elections there on the same pages Germany and England volatility to market and September 24th this could be a risk currently elections are planned for and 2018 next they remove the next thing is watch out for so we have Curie inflation data Germany is the biggest most influential country in the eurozone if inflation goes up in in Germany goes up for the whole eurozone and it pushes the euro higher and on tomorrow we have inflation data for the whole eurozone the last figure before the ECB and I would say last time I just mentioned that done and correlation in the eurozone mission highest level since 2013 so this is very positive with you or this time we're expecting says that they retreated all in inflation so this could hurt the Europe but what happened today from the German figures and now in general the bigger picture for your dollar the French elections unleashed the upside we had a third of the euro payroll because growth is stronger but before the elections the euro was held with that growth is stronger than bee returns than the US politics would work table at least for now Germany France then in the United States okay the big next movers are do not come from politics comes from central bank's we have two big important decisions in in June the ECB and it to the said okay I know we're seeing an uptrend since the beginning of the year since we bought a lot at 103 40 so let's look at the eurozone chart look at the big level and talking about the take your uptrend but now what we're seeing today is fall back a correction the strength as you can see still to the upside so we have a resistance level and from crime level 1 11 17 then 112 66 which was entitled height then 113 the highest level seen in the US just from the US elections and then 114 20 okay to the downside we have 110 50 and other the very realm level 110 we have none when I'm 50 the first post French election site the locality has 108 20 and then one over 775 remember that the gap after the first round of the French election with never quote and that is technically positive sign a bullish sign for Euro bell right let's continue to the British Pound and their politics to be sickly everything at the moment so Prime Minister 3 so made and of the Conservative Party and Jeremy Corbyn and Challenger from the Labour Party they had lengthy interview yesterday with cheering pectin is formidable even aggressive interviewer and last night the bottom line is it didn't change anything about the election now the sign I say that Corbin came out a bit better than expected but it's still not seen by many as prime minister material on it all and conservatives are expected to win an absolute majority however the we that Prime Minister made and from Conservative Party has is narrowing but it doesn't happen in all the latest poll just just before we began the show came from servation choice and six percent lead for the Conservative Party but given the system the first-past-the-post system in the United Kingdom who should be enough for an absolute majority in college the lead of the Conservatives sometimes penis come later well you can see it short left it's between six which is will appear in servation to 14% according to samples okay should be enough for an absolute majority the turnout among the army is that case and all people were more consistent in their voting patterns tell your people not so much to watch a new expose and I turn out to vote turnout intention loading attention of young people and in general market once in a landslide victory for victory for the Conservatives this gives us market hopes for better softer Britain and and the labor price is not after self-directed and it doesn't does remark extremely positive we're not talking about Tony Blair Gordon Brown were talking willips Jeremy Corbyn which is the war heartless so market the power will strengthen with the big victories would service will fall is way relentless highly unlikely and according to most analysts multiple it'll be an interesting nail in a June 8 and June 9 because the oceans are health and during trade dollars okay i'll side politics and indicators don't take not our back to the back burner rule dumb braces 0.2% boarded reporter bridget begins to black like if you'll still see recently did expectations like be some kind of an Eastern effect okay something related to them more blinding during inkle but the trend is to the downside real wages that's the most painful point and our negative inflation is higher than the growth in real wages so standard living our phone districts the time okay next big projects are basically the polls every opinion poll becomes more important as we get closer to the election we do have some fingers as well on Thursday the manufacturing PMI I'm saying is construction PMI I think that they will sway second student not have such an impact but opinion polls I know the bigger picture for wrong dollar is that the two big political shots 2017 Trump and breakfast truck is having the worst impacts in bricks it the US dollar is weaker than the pump we went back and after if we fail to arrange of 128 135 will know back to this range but the second range of one and 22 127 that company that US between October and until April until and as announcement of the elections but the third is quite probable and it's having a hard time holding to holding up some 128 let's look at that on dollar chart and here on the metatrader platform the upside fix so currently we're holding on and support this 12750 this level right here this big lease is upside elmo is the jump that we've seen after a threesome in of the election which is where the tide wind 315 and we also have the resistance there is 129 under 12750 we have three what election announcement little and they're already at much lower levels when playing 616 and get 123 15 so we're currently battling between high and low support so if this is the bigger picture for pound dollar where the higher but don't fall back to lower range tank let's continue and with Canadian dollar I like this currency known that many players do the ignorance was the author committee bless trick they decide to extend cuss by nine months that's good news but it was well known weeks beforehand so it had a very calm from the mental pattern or patter general pattern and market buy the rumor sell that the other users who's coming in webcam oil sells that after writing beforehand okay the same thing we didn't have a recovery in fall from 52 to 48 north at Rome City and WTI crude oil US shale output continues growing but it's growing a bit more slowly so that those oil prices right of course I mentioned in talking about autos in the context of the Canadian dollar because Canada is big producer of one and the price of oil has very good correlation with the Canadian dollar they're worried about external exemption for Olivia Nigeria's two African countries that has internal insurgency insurgencies they have trouble and that limits oil output and now you're allowed to produce as much as they can and if things improve their maybe they will as markets this could have a negative impact on the price of oil the negative impact on the community and dollar apart from that the Bank of Canada in the streets and decision last week was welcome to be optimistic on growth which was from first quarter not that worried about inflation which was like me 1.3 percent so not everything is going well there and the spikes and they also ignored the slow down to job which was three point two percent free in-store experience helping 200 jumps in the video looking to do the big worry is for me markets also around Canadian dollar is what's going on in Toronto Canada's biggest city the housing market is screeching to a halt there too many listings of new homes after big rising prices now they're beginning to fall this one company there that is in deep trouble on Capital Group at interior a crew for inserting the picture is we're talking about one city in a huge country but once house prices begin fine this could hurt the wider economy we've seen that before in the United States and we've seen that in many other countries and this already the curve in foreign investment is happening already beyond another week sitting in Vancouver so it's not the main story now but you should watch out for that the big events this week we have GDP coming out on Wednesday it's a Murphy GDP Callanetics unity coalition these figures you have a big impact but for a short period of time in comparison to other countries and finally we have trade balance in labor productivity these are important figures for Canada but they're released at the same time as the u.s. national peril so probably you start from heroes who have a bigger effect okay basically dollar cash more listen range in the period went up with the slump in low prices it dropped from the banks can down and then hopes for the open decision and now sort of stabilize with them by the fact next time on work places I know it's quite vengeful so if you like men straining you like trading dollar cad and also we are here support 133 eighty further support 130 220 resistance 134 16 136 and the cycle hype course one just under 138 one and 3790 so if we zoom out just a bit you can see that you can find here an uptrend but it's sort of two steps forward once there it's not such a strong trend okay thanks for you run out of time let's quickly things with Australian dollar used to be one of my favorite we have good news from there the Australian shell support again housing worries in Sydney Australia's largest city similar camera both are commodity currencies both have housing issues and recently went took over the news our concern of all the Chinese economy so various figures from think tanks our own world pointed us to weakness in the Chinese economy from the Germans to institutes and retirees as integral class all point to lower growth in china china is Australia's number one trading partner that's why anything that happens in China has an impact on the US government last week's the years with the movie the rating agency downgraded China and first thing with first time since 1989 so that was big news big Australian events we have double feature Australia on Thursday went through gmt retail sales and capital expenditure just 15 minutes later we have keep bigger content occasion manufacturing PMI it's an independent its measured the health of the Chinese manufacturing sector the sector that consumes metal that affiliate and produces I would nor cover also rolls okay I know every dollar is trending lower since Marshall I see that in Detroit in just a bit and but upload bottom those kinds you shape and bounce over there moves or more subdued in the past used to be one of my favorite games occurs it used to dress up and down in a strong fashion now it's visit more chubby let's look at the chart on the other charge to do with chart so here we can see this Beltran okay but again it's choppy we bottomed out with you at 72 50 and 74 the line of support and we have 75 50 76 10 which is a critical level work both the support and resistance and high above in this kind of has 77 for so these are the big levels for the onion dollar okay that's it thank you for today thanks for joining this After Effects and webinars in the middle not it currents and feedback are always always always welcome so thank you very much they wish everybody 16 successful days in the market thank you and by late
