Randomly thought of the chances of my funger fellars winning the festival;
Irene - She's a die-hard pacifist with the tendency to 'forcefully' help others whenever they like it or not; she's a medic! She's also pretty much fearless, STUPIDLY so; gal's gonna throw herself in the arms of danger at any given time! Complete zero.
Maria - Has incredible magic potency due to her mind wandering off to the other realm of existance; an unique ability she was born with. Alas, she's 'not fully there' in the real world and would probably never use violence unless if to help her sister. Extremely slim, almost zero.
Catalina - A good fighter, very resistant and hardened by her environment. Her biggest drawback is that she's here to protect her sister and will absolutely refuse to kill her, and will go in the harm's way to save her. Very slim.
Orlan - A weakling and a failure with a little bit of occult knowledgle he got from his studies. A cowardly conformist who follows the flow. He's been "Chained" his whole life, so maybe, just maybe, the festival could be a chance for him to finally 'live'. Still, a slim chance, very little.
Francisco - Now that's a proper contender! Bloodthirsty, brutal, extremely skilled, okay with killing others. Very high chance.
Victor - An ascetic religious fellow deeply devoted to Alll-Mer. He's calm and focused, combat-ready and an experienced fighter pilot. On top of that, he's pretty good with guns. Victor's biggest drawback is his pacifism and the need to help others; he wouldn't hurt anyone who's innocent. However, because of him being "at peace" with himself and having very strong willpower, he'd be resistant to the moonscorching effect and would probably be one of the very few contestants to reach Day 3 night non-moonscorched. So maybe...? He WOULD kill other moonscorched contestants as self-defense. Moderate chance.