#gastelum

[thesportssoundoff]

“The BMF in MSG on pseudo PPV” UFC 244 Preview

Joey

October 28th, 2019

The UFC's first two showcases in MSG were based entirely around putting on insane title fights that flexed the UFC's superior depth as an organization. Conor/Alvarez in a battle of champions with two title fights and a host of big names (Edgar, Stephens, Romero, Tate, Weidman) underneath it followed up by GSP/Bisping with Dillashaw/Garbrandt and Rose Najamunas/Joanna underneath it. 2018 signified a change as big fight after big fight fell through and the UFC was left just aiming to put on a crazy deep card with high levels of violent potential on it. It succeeded on that but the card felt a step behind the other shows. This one feels more like a return to old with hints of the more modern formula sprinkled in. There's no Conor and no Khabib, there's no big title fight, there's no real fight of divisional significance either. What there is a big main event pitting two big stars against one another with a fake belt on the line (but aren't they all really if we're being honest) with an undercard that doesn't showcase the UFC's depth and isn't loaded with big superstars but has a litany of really fun action fights on tap. Nate Diaz vs Jorge Masvidal for the BMF title feels like the UFC doing the rare thing; giving the fans what they want while also giving themselves what they need. Under that you have just a rush of really freaking good action fights that maybe won't matter in a year from now but combine to create a very appealing way to spend a Saturday night, Let's talk about it.

Fights: 12

Debuts:

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 2 (Colby Covington vs Kamaru Usman CANCELLED/Krzysztof Jotko OUT, Brad Tavares IN vs Edmen Shahbazyan)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 11 (Jorge Masvidal, Nate Diaz, Stephen Thompson, Kelvin Gastelum, Darren Till, Blagoy Ivanov, Derrick Lewis, Kevin Lee, Corey Anderson, Brad Tavares, Andrei Arlovski)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:  4 (Stephen Thompson, Derrick Lewis, Kevin Lee, Darren Till)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 14 (Jorge Masvidal, Jair Rozenstruik, Vicente Luque, Corey Anderson, Johnny Walker, Blagoy Ivanov, Johnny Walker, Jennifer Maia, Chance Rencountre, Hakeem Dawodu,Edmen Shahbazyan, Shane Burgos, Mawkan Amirkhani, Gregor Gillespie)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC): 31-17

Nate Diaz- 1-0 Jorge Masvidal- 3-2 Darren Till- 4-2 Kelvin Gastelum- 2-2-1 Stephen Thompson- 1-3 Vicente Luque- 6-1 Derrick Lewis- 4-3 Blagoy Ivanov- 2-1 Kevin Lee- 3-3 Gregor Gillespie- 5-0

Fights By Weight Class (yearly number here):

Welterweight-  3 (67) Heavyweight- 2 (36) Middleweight- 2 (42) Featherweight- 2 (55) Light Heavyweight- 1 (40) Lightweight- 1 (70) Women’s Flyweight- 1 (32)

Women’s Strawweight- (28) Bantamweight- (53) Flyweight-  (15) Women’s Featherweight- (8) Women’s Bantamweight-  (18)

2019 Number Tracker

Debuting Fighters (38-59-1)-

Short Notice Fighters (29-36)- Brad Tavares

Second Fight (56-35)-

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (22-38-1)-

Undefeated Fighters (40-37-2)- Gregor Gillespie, Edmen Shahbazyan

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization (12-9)-

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (29-23)- Darren Till, Kevin Lee

Twelve Precious Ponderings

1- Anyone else we still had buyrates to pour over for this one? Imagine being able to comp this to the Conor/Nate fights or Conor/Khabib or the bigger Jones fights to see where these two really rank in terms of buyrates.

2- So what's the end result when this is over? Are we going to pretend the BMF thing is real? Are we going to retire it? Is this like when the WBC has some new title made for Floyd's next big fight then he just keeps it in his attic in his 50 room mansion? I'm just perplexed what the long term plan is for this title that allegedly costs thousands to make.

3- One of the more interesting things about this fight is that Masvidal;s pretty much changed how he fights going up in weight. I don't know if it was just more confidence in himself without nixing off 15 lbs or if he made a concession that he needed to change to adapt to his weight class but he went from not having a stoppage via strikes at LW for six years to stopping 5 of his 6 WW wins. Nate Diaz is notoriously durable but he's also been hurt in the past at 170 lbs and I think Masvidal's pop is legitimate up at WW. Conversely we've seen Masvidal dropped by guys like Till and Larkin only to rise up and get right back to doing what he does. I'm curious if Masvidal will come out fighting Nate like he has every other welterweight or if this turns into a cautiously fun fight where nobody really gets a serious edge and it's a respect filled slodge down the stretch.

4- How does Conor wiggle himself into the main event conversation before all's said and done.

5- What could Darren Till and his camp possibly see in Kelvin Gastelum that this is the fight they wanted for his debut?

6- Derrick Lewis is undefeated against big Eastern European dudes. Just want to keep that in the conversation.

7- Speaking of weird matchups that don't make any sense on paper, Kevin Lee opted to drop back down to 155 lbs and his first fight is Gregor Gillespie. This after we just saw two straight fights where Lee struggled to get off the fence against grapplers with more strength and a better understanding of control than he does. Now to his credit, Lee beat Michael Chiesa who is similar but I'd argue Chiesa is more of a big slug muk type LW whereas Gillespie is a fluid mover with quick enough pop in his hands to survive fights at range if need be. I don't know if Lee made the right call here unless he's  got a secret escape route vs Gillespie. It is fair to point out that Gregor Gillespie has never faced a guy with Kevin Lee's overall skillset but if this turns into a battle of wills and cardio, I gotta bet on Gillespie.

8- They're not the sexiest of names on a card like this but both of these featherweight fights are great fun. Hakeem Dawodu vs Julio Arce is a great striking contest where you have two hittable featherweights sort of trying to scrap their way out of the bottom half of the ranks going at it. Arce has the better resume but Dawodu has crazy upside and promise. Arce tends to fight his opponent's fight so chances are this is going to be a pretty fun back and forth all kickboxing affair. Makwan Amirkhani vs Shane Burgos should be a hilarious striker vs grappler fight as Burgos is one of the best featherweights at controlling range and pace while Amirkhani probably beats every featherweight who he can get to the ground (minus Arnold Allen who JUST edged out a decision). Amirkhani's hands haven't taken the next step the way a lot of folks expected but beyond that, he's a lot of fun. Burgos is one of the many dudes who adopted Conor McGregor's stalk and strike style and I'd imagine it's going to be pretty tense in the latter rounds to see Burgos chasing with this being a takedown vs knockdown style chess match. Good fights on the prelims.

9- Andrei Arlovski vs Jair Rozenstruik is going to be a happenin'. There's a good chance Rozenstruik is going to be racing Ciryl Gane for most impressive UFC newcomer down the stretch.

10- Corey Anderson is the guy the UFC doesn't ever want to give a title shot to because nobody would possibly care about Anderson vs Jones. Johnny Walker is in a small circle of fun LHWs who the UFC believes will be big pieces of their puzzle once Shogun, Glover and company clear out the middle of the division. This is a very strange yet kinda appealing risky fight from the UFC.

11- Brad Tavares grinded and scrapped his way up the UFC rankings to get one main event slot and now he's back on the prelims testing prospects. Life is tough in UFC land. They also clearly think he's cooked because they're handing him over to the Ronda promoted prospect who has two first round finishes in three UFC fights.

12-  Is the winner of Jennifer Maia vs Kaitlyn Chookagian the #1 contender?

[espnpr]

UFC 234 Whittaker vs. Gastelum: How, Where and What to Watch

[urotuning]

Class and sass #catuned #bagged #e30 #bmw #calilife #gastelum #lhefe #nofilter Owner @dangastelum72 Via @catuned_igor

[thesportssoundoff]

“I know undercards don’t matter. You don’t need to drive the point home so hard.” UFC 234 From Australia Preview

WHEW boy! Let's talk about this right quick. Let's begin with the positives of this card which are readily apparent. The two big middleweight fights at the top of the bill are pretty damn good. Even IF we assume that Israel Adesanya vs Anderson Silva is nothing more than a high level MMA human sacrifice, the mere presence of Anderson Silva makes this must see appointment television. Silva vs Adesanya will at least be memorable and the middleweight title fight is probably the best fight to showcase the transition from old and clunky to young and vibrant. Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum both represent some truly positive things ranging from the benefits of cutting less weight to the rise of young and athletic in a division run by a bunch of Muks.  The bad news is that the rest of this card ranges from "It's intriguing but not quite worth the spot it has" to "How could anybody care about this?" Some of these fights in all fairness are solid well put together contests pitting two solid fighters with similar records/places in the division----but most of these fights would have a hard time being considered appropriate main card ESPN+ fights. They want you to pay for the privilege of seeing Montana De La Rosa and Nadia Kassem. Remember that folks. Let's chit chat about it.

Fights: 12

Debuts: Marcos Rosa, Callan Potter and Raulian Pavia

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 2 (Ryan SPANN OUT, Sam Alvey IN vs Jim Crute/Alex Gorgees OUT, Callan Potter IN vs Jalin Turner)

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC): 5 (Israel Adesanya, Anderson Silva, Kelvin Gastelum, Robert Whittaker and Lando Vannata)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC: 2 (Wulliji Buren, Teruto Ishihara)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC: 6 (Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya, Kelvin Gastelum, Ricky Simon, Dong Hyun Ma, Rani Yahya)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2017 (in the UFC): 23-5

Kelvin Gastelum- 2-1 (1) Robert Whittaker- 3-0 Anderson Silva- 1-0 Israel Adesanya- 4-0 Ricky Simon- 2-0 Rani Yahya- 3-1 Montana De La Rosa- 2-0 Nadia Kassem- 1-0 Jim Crute- 1-0 Sam Alvey- 4-3

Fights By Weight Class (yearly number here):

Lightweight- 3 (7) Bantamweight- 3 (4) Middlewieght- 2 (3) Flyweight- 1 (4) Women’s Flyweight- 1 (4) Light Heavyweight- 1 (3) Featherweight- 1 (3)

Welterweight- (4) Heavyweight- (2) Women’s Strawweight- (1)

2019’s Records We Keepin Track Of:

Debuting Fighters (2-7): Callan Potter, Raulian Pavia, Marcos Rosa

Short Notice Fighters (1-2):  Callan Potter, Sam Alvey

Second Fight (5-1):  Nadia Kassem, Jim Crute, Devonte Smith, Kai Kara France, Jonathan Martinez, Jalin Turner

Cage Corrosion (Fighters who have not fought within a year of the date of the fight) (3-0):

Undefeated Fighters (1-6): Nadia Kassem, Israel Adesanya, Jim Crute

Fighters with at least four fights in the UFC with 0 wins over competition still in the organization: Dong Hyun Ma

Weight Class Jumpers (Fighters competing outside of the weight class of their last fight even if they’re returning BACK to their “normal weight class”) (3-3): Nadia Kassem, Jalin Turner

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- "What is this PPV gonna draw?" is going to be a pretty complicated discussion when you factor in all of the usual elements at play. For starters, the top two fights could not be anymore appealing. Four well known proven middleweights who have headlined enough events (be it on free TV, PPV etc) to at least have some cache with fans. Gastelum, Whittaker, Silva and Adesanya all have highlight reel worthy performances to make for a hell of a sizzle reel. Both fights have compelling enough stories to get people excited. We know fans don't necessarily care about undercards as much as you'd think so the complete ass-ness of the undercard is not entirely worthy of discussing.The counterpoint is that this card as a whole is very weak, it's an international PPV (which fans seem to not necessarily associate with quality) and historically speaking Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum have been anti-draws on PPV, Silva is the big star who hasn't been relied upon to move PPVs for a long time AND Israel Adesanya has struggled to draw free viewers to TVs let alone paying ones. There's also the fact that if there's a purchasing decision to be made, I imagine fans would rather splurge on UFC 235 than this card. The very loaded UFC 225 card with CM Punk, Holm, Andrei Arlovski, Tai Tuiavasa, Whittaker/Romero and Covington/RDA did around 250K buys which is pretty blegh. So what's this one do? I feel like 200K is the bottom line and anything over what 225 did should be a success.

2- Of the ten fighters on this main card, only four of them have ever appeared on a PPV main card before. Remove the co-main and main event and half of the fighters on the main card last appeared on the Fight Pass prelims or FS1(2) prelims to the main card. Only Jim Crute and Sam Alvey appeared on main cards last. This is a very thin main card.

3- The key challenge in figuring out the co-main event is whether Whittaker's body can hold up over what figures to once again be another grueling 25 minute fight. Gastelum has only been rocked once (a big counter hook vs Rick Story after mentally checking out for a bit) and so he figures to be there for as long as the fight lasts. Gastelum hits hard for a dude going up to 185 lbs and  when he gets going, he drowns people under a consistent offensive workrate. Like against Romero, Whittaker is going to be the fighter who has the technical advantages and he's the sort of fighter who can remain elusive while also being offensive and consistently pressuring. The problem is that Whittaker has broken hands, torn ACLs and been rocked consistently in his last two fights, both violent as all get out wars with Yoel Romero. That's nearly an hrs worth of fighting with Yoel Romero which physically and systematically destroys most normal people. At some point Whittaker is going to break down and I'm left wondering if Gastelum is going to be the lucky beneficiary to Romero's hard work.

4- So how likely it is that Adesanya vs Anderson Silva turns into one of those overly respectful deals where it's fifteen minutes of staring with an occasional flurry? Would Adesanya carry Silva out of respect?

5- Nadia Kassem is rather interesting and while her vs Montana De La Rosa is not in any way shape or form a main card PPV fight, it IS an interesting one. De La Rosa is a TUF contender turned solid flyweight who seems to have bouts of mental blockage at inopportune times BUT also packs good skills on the feet and in the grappling department. Kassem is really powerful, a big 125er (let's not forget she weighed 120 lbs in her strawweight debut) and comes from a market that the UFC visits 3-4 times a year with one PPV a year. She could be 2-3 wins away from us talking about her vs Valentina Shevchenko.

6- How many fights off of this show will you remember ONCE you remove the main and co-main event?

7- Kelvin Gastelum has managed to make things work pretty well with a basic 1-2 combination punctuated by a leg kick or two when he has to. He's a crisp boxer but people forget he's also a pretty damn good wrestler as well. I wonder if he tries to bring that back into the fold against Robert Whittaker just to shake things up over the course of the fight.

8- I wonder if Kai Kara France vs Raulian Pavia is exempt from Fight Of The Night honors on principle alone given that they're going to be gutting the division.

9- It's tough to remember it now but we started 2017 believing Lando Vannata could become one of the bigger future stars of the sport. At the very least, fresh off a highlight reel KO over Makdessi and with a FOTN vs Tony Ferguson in his backpocket, we figured he'd be a key factor in the division. Since that point? Lando is 0-2-2 with two draws that could theoretically have been losses. Vannata is a really fun fighter to watch but one who seems to fold under pressure and one who seems neither strong enough to wrestle successfully or complete enough to do the middle of the road stuff to make his high end flashy offense work. He flirted with free agency but the UFC brought him back. He gets a guy who rumor has it was signed primarily based off of his friendship with Anderson Silva. This is a gimme.

10- It's probably not going to be UFC quality but Shane Young vs Austin Arnett should be at the very least somewhat fun. I hope?

11- Rani Yahya finally gets his PPV debut after being in the UFC since the original WEC merger. Bless him.

12- Jim Crute, who is a very hittable guy, taking on Sam Alvey, who hits very hard, is a very risky way to give your Australian LHW prospect wunderkind some PPV exposure.

[thesportssoundoff]

Gastelum’s leaping left hook is MONEY right out. Wobbled Adesanya right now with one and then caught him again.

[thesportssoundoff]

Kelvin Gastelum vs Robert Whittaker for the UFC MW title

Probably in December or so.

All I’m going to say is that this fight is too fucking good to actually take place. 

[thesportssoundoff]

“Is Brazil prepared for a Dragon, a Phenom, Rocky, an Alligator and potentially some good old fashioned Lineker violence?” UFC 224 Preview

Joey

May 7th

These long UFC breaks are a real sore, aren't they? After what feels like a much longer than it actually is week and change; the UFC returns and it's coming straight to PPV with a very...strange card. The main card isn't perfect by any stretch but it's a) good enough to be respectable and b) filled with everything you'd want for a modern day PPV except for the main ingredient I suppose. You've got a quality competent high level title fight, you've got a legends fight that's years in the making (since at least 2013 when Machida made his decision to drop to 185 known), you've got a guaranteed action fight brawl between John Lineker and Brian Kelleher, a phenomenal prospect getting the vaunted third fight treatment and a #1 contender fight at 185 lbs assuming that Chris Weidman's broken hand/shoulder/neck/knee/everything is still on the mend. From there though I think the card really suffers primarily from a lack of one big defining fight that can tie it all together and make it a deep card. It's fine; it's a Brazilian level UFC event. I feel like it could've benefitted from a Iuri Alcantara sighting basically or some Brazilian of a high level who you could see as a prelim headliner.

Fights: 13

Debuts: 0

Fight Changes/Injury Cancellations: 0

Headliners (fighters who have either main evented or co-main evented shows in the UFC):  7 (Amanda Nunes, Ronaldo Souza, Kelvin Gastelum, Lyoto Machida, John Lineker, Thales Leites, Cezar Ferreira)

Fighters On Losing Streaks in the UFC:   1 (Thales Leites)

Fighters On Winning Streaks in the UFC:   5 (Alberto Mina, Raquel Pennington, Amanda Nunes, Elizeu Zaleski, Nick Hein)

Main Card Record Since Jan 1st 2016 (in the UFC):  25-9-2

Amanda Nunes- 4-0 Raquel Pennington- 3-0 Ronaldo Souza- 3-1 Kelvin Gastelum- 3-1-1 (really 4-1) Amanda Bobby Cooper- 2-2 Mackenzie Dern- 1-0 John Lineker- 4-1 Brian Kelleher- 3-1 Lyoto Machida- 1-1 Vitor Belfort- 1-2-1 (1-3 reaaaaaally)

Too High Up- Davi Ramos vs Nick Hein

In truth everything on the main card is pretty much what it should be. The prelims are such a grab bag of "decent but not thrilling" that it's hard to pick one fight that maybe has the capacity of being out of place. That belongs to this fight where Nick Hein returns from an extended absence to face Davi Ramos on the middle of the FS1 card. I have no beef with Davi Ramos but Hein is a notoriously slow boring fighter who more often than not has fights that tend to sap the will of viewers like they're trapped in a RNC. It's also worth pointing out that Hein is 33 and he hasn't fought since 2016. Put this on Fight Pass, man.

Too Low- Alberto Mina vs Ramazan Emeev

This is a touch hypocritical given Emeev stunk up the joint and Mina hasn’t fought in a year and change either. I get it but listen. Alberto Mina is a pretty fun fighter to watch who has finished 2 of his 3 UFC fights, racking up wins over Yoshihiro Akiyana and Mike Pyle if you're looking for "names" to get excited over. Ramazan Emeev is coming off a win at 185 lbs vs Sam Alvey in a dumb fight but Emeev is figured to be a fighter worth keeping an eye on at 170 lbs. It's a far more intriguing fight on paper than Hein/Ramos.

Stat Monitor for 2018: Debuting Fighters (Current number: 9-14):  

Short Notice Fighters (Current number: 10-4):

Second Fight (Current number: 12-12):  James Bochnovic, Markus Perez, Ramazan Emeev, Karl Roberson, Mackenzie Dern

Cage Corrosion (Current number: 5-10):  Alberto Mina, Sultan Aliev, Nick Hein, Raquel Pennington

Undefeated Fighters (Current number: 15-10):  Mackenzie Dern, Karl Roberson, Alberto Mina

Twelve Precarious Ponderings

1- Let's talk about the card real quick, eh? Amanda Nunes is under 30 but she'll be over the dreaded "RB decline age" shortly. How many other Brazilian fighters on this card are under 30?

John Lineker- 27 Junior Albini- 27 Warrley Alves- 27 Markus Perez- 27

Now Mackenzie Dern is 25 years old but she was born in the United States. If you want to give her to Brazil for the sake of continuity then you're more than welcome to but the point remains. What's more? Albini is coming off a loss, Alves is 1-2 in his last 3 fights, Markus Perez is coming off a loss and while we all love Lineker, I feel like the ceiling on him at 125 and 135 lbs has been somewhat established. People make a lot of talk about the lack of Brazilian champions but that's not a massive problem. I was there in 2012 when everybody was panicking about the lack of American champions during the Brazilian boom period of MMA. The problem is Brazil lacks a fresh young core of new talents under 30 who can make waves in the UFC. I mean stop me if you've heard this one BUT the hope when the UFC decided to invest countless dollars into Brazil was that at some point they'd find, cultivate and develop a bumper crop of young stars for when Anderson, Shogun, Maia, Machida, the Nog Brothers and Vitor were gone. It hasn't happened yet and each attempt has been in vain. That's why Thomas Almeida was received with open arms; it's not JUST that dude was a tremendous fight finisher and all violence fighter. It's that his youth and upside made him a product they HAD to try and develop. It's why Paulo Costa's development as a fighter is so vital; the 27 year old middleweight is a glorified unicorn at this point. Brazil doesn't need one last glory run from guys who are already established. What they REALLY need to do is to find new guys who can carry the banner.

Now the rule of thumb as always is that it only takes one to do it. A fighter like Michael Bisping is considered to have opened the door for other fighters and then the door was reopened by Conor McGregor for European fighters. It's hard to find a Hawaiian fighter who didn't get into MMA through BJ Penn fandom. Fedor is probably more responsible for the current influx of tremendous Russian born fighters than anybody else. The hope is 5-10 years from now, Ronda Rousey's lasting impact on MMA isn't the million buy PPVs or the out of the cage wackiness but the hundreds of women she'll have influenced to get into MMA.  There's no way to tell who it is and what it's going to take for it to happen. We've been waiting on Canada to find the heir to the GSP throne for quite some time now. Eventually a new fighter to capture the hearts and minds of the people will come----but time's ticking. Brazil isn't hopeless but it has to be getting to the point where the UFC is simply running out of draws for the market. No Nog, No Anderson, soon no Vitor, eventually no Maia, Werdum or Machida. Cyborg isn't going to be around for the UFC much longer either. The time for somebody to step up has NEVER been more immediate. Maybe this is why there's going to be a most convenient case of amnesia on where Mackenzie Dern was born.

2- There's an MMA fan theory I've seen on a few forums about the # of WMMA fights on a card relating to buyrate. The general feeling is that like flyweights, the more WMMA fights you have on a main card the less likely you are to pop a significant buyrate.  I decided to go back to 2016 and take a peek at the rumored buyrates for shows with TWO WMMA fights on a card.

UFC 196 (Nunes/Shevchenko, Holm/Nunes)- 1.3 mil UFC 205 (Joanna/Karolina, Tate/Pennington)- 1.3 mil UFC 219 (Holm/Cyborg, Esparza/Gadelha)- 300K UFC 222 (Cyborg/Kunitskaya, Vieira/Zingano)- 260K

So obviously we're not blessed with a tremendous sample size. We've got four events here and two of them with McGregor as the headliner did McGregor level numbers. The other two? I mean they're not bad! Mighty Mouse would sell his gaming rig to headline a PPV that did that kind of scratch. A WMMA headliner outside of Ronda tend to do alright-ish I suppose. I mean Holm vs GDR did in the 200K+ range and again, that sort of number would be something Mighty Mouse would hunger for. I guess the point I'm trying to illustrate is that I don't think this card is DOA. So what MIGHT it draw? Well....we can start by acknowledging that Brazil is where PPV buyrates go to die. Outside of Ronda making a pinch hit appearance to spruce the market (and secure a new deal for the UFC), these shows normally top off around the low to mid 300Ks. Now in today's PPV market that sounds pretty damn fine but that was with Anderson Silva in the height of his GOATness headlining. Jose Aldo PPVs from Brazil routinely did awful bottom of the barrel type numbers. The last time the UFC did a PPV in Brazil; the general thought was that it topped off around the 250K+ range. Not awful of course but probably not the best either for a unification bout between Aldo and Holloway. This card is a lot better than people are giving it credit for but Nunes vs Shevchenko left a sour taste in people's mouths plus Amanda Nunes is just genuinely unpopular. In today's PPV market, it takes more than just a card of really good fights. It has to be "an event" more than just "a fight." If this card drops below 200K, I think that's probably a bad deal.

3- I feel like this is going to answer more questions than Nunes/Shevchenko II re: Amanda Nunes and her long term success going forward. If you drew up a fighter who could prey on the things that have been of woe to Nunes' success, it's a fighter who has SOME of the Rocky Pennington attributes. The sort of person who doesn't get overwhelmed by pressure, who can dish it out and take it in return, who hits surprisingly hard and relies on durability and patience. Pennington is really crude but she makes it work for her and she's one of those fighters who fights better when tired. Amanda Nunes has struggled with people who don't fold vs her pressure and her cardio remains a question until I see her in a fight where it's truly tested. Her vs Shevchenko was a low output high leverage staring contest which didn't really force her to exert much of anything. To this point, Nunes deserves fantastic credit for making sure cardio isn't an issue by just running through people. This is still a very unique test for her.

4- I just wish Pennington hadn't been gone for over a year. This year I started tracking performances of fighters who take more than a year off and the 5-10 number is not pretty. What's more; Nunes is arguably the best first round fighter in MMA today and so if Pennington is rusty (which she will be), she might not even get a chance to test what Nunes has in rounds 3, 4 and 5.

5- Kelvin Gastelum vs Jacare is such a weird fight for me. It's a fight where logic dictates Gastleum should have no shot given the size difference but one where he remains a credible threat. I lack a defined way to describe Jacare other than to call him perhaps history's most undervalued commodity; one of the best grapplers with really good striking backed by one of the games most active fight IQs. Like Damien Maia, he just isn't athletic enough to really get over a certain caliber of fighters. Guys who he can't get down he often struggles with and against Whittaker and Romero, he was taken out of his gameplan early due to a speed and athleticism disadvantage. Like Whittaker, Gastelum will give up size in exchange for speed and the cardio advantage. The key difference is Whittaker is insanely hard to get down and keep down whereas I can't get Weidman taking Gastelum down out of my head. Gastelum CAN be taken down but on the ground he's really great at neutralizing offense and getting back to his feet. I'm just not sure Jacare is the right person to want to try to show that off against. Jacare also does some of his best work securing takedowns against the cage and Gastelum does his best work practically leaning on the fence. This is a really good fight with the winner leaving no doubt as to who the #1 contender is since Chris Weidman has evaporated into the ether seemingly.

6- Have the expectations become too much for Mackenzie Dern? It's beginning to feel like if she doesn't steamroll ABC in the first round then the scrutiny on her performance is going to be pretty crazy.

7- It's a little bit bittersweet that Lyoto Machida vs Vitor Belfort is potentially a double retirement fight. The fact we never got Anderson vs Vitor II or Lyoto vs Shogun III will always be bummers to me. On the other hand, we've hit "No mas" for Vitor Belfort like a full two years ago and Machida is either at that point or quickly approaching it. This is a rare acceptable legends fight with the right market to engage in it.

8- Since they're fighting we might as well ask this; whose legacy is more vital to the history of MMA? Vitor Belfort or Lyoto Machida?

9- There are going to be actual human beings walking among us breathing our air and drinking our water who will not watch Lineker vs Kelleher based solely on their height and weight. These creatures exist.

10- If you haven't seen Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Alberto Mina yet, I recommend you do so. One of the wilder and crazier fights in recent memory which is forgotten since it happened at like 8 AM Eastern.

11- The best prospect on this entire show is not a Brazilian but an American in Karl Roberson. He trains out of a tiny gym in New Jersey, was thrown into the fire of kickboxing vs Jerome LeBanner and Dustin Jacoby and before his sixth mma fights, he was already in the UFC. After ONE fight in the UFC, he was already trying to step up to fight Vitor Befort on LESS than 24 hours notice. He's the rare good example of guys tested before they're ready in that he's already faced a fire storm and come out stronger each time. He's got Cezar Mutante in the FX prelim headliner.

12- Elizeu Zaleski has been in five UFC fights. Three of them won a FOTN bonus and the Dalby-Zeleski fight should've won a fourth. He is all action all the time and while Sean Strickland is not the right opponent if you want to have an action fight, I get the feeling Zaleski will drag him into one kicking and screaming.

Must Wins

1- Amanda Nunes

Simply put this show is all about her. She's getting a bit of a stay busy opponent in Pennington with the right kind of strengths to test what have previously been flaws for Nunes. The show is all about her and it's being built around her returning to Brazil as the UFC's top Brazilian champion (at least over the long haul).

2- Jacare Souza

Kelvin Gastelum is really young for 185 lbs so the opportunity to be a contender/champion is always going to be there for him. This is about 38 year old Jacare trying to finally get a UFC title shot after scrapping and scrounging for over five years in the org plus an MMA career that feels like it spans well into the 19th century. The last time he was this close; her an into a fighter similar to Kelvin Gastelum who wouldn't get taken down and just pieced him up in striking range until Jacare just couldn't take it anymore. Lightning strikes twice?

3- Mackenzie Dern

Take everything said about Nunes and then put that in here minus the champion bit. Dern is Brazil's top prospect for the UFC now that Thomas Almeida has sort of settled into a bit of a mid level range.

Five Can't Miss Fights

1- Brian Keller vs John Lineker

2- Lyoto Machida vs Vitor Belfort

3- Kelvin Gastelum vs Ronaldo Souza

4- Elizeu Zaleski vs Sean Strickland

5- Junior Albini vs his diaper

[thesportssoundoff]

Kelvin Gastelum vs Michael Bisping

Holy jesus thats a UFC EA type KO

Gastelum right in the face of Michael Bisping. Gastelum is the epitome of a pudgy middleweight but he's got som pep in his step. Gastelum loves his chin a bit too much as it feels like he's often getting caught with it jutting right out. It's always at the end of the punch's maximum impact though. Gastelum going to the body of Bisping like he's trying to save us all from watching Bisping get popped in the head. Bisping lands a big right and Gastelum eats it while landing a body kick. Gastelum is the new Mousasi when it comes to how comatose he is. OH MY GOD GASTELUM JUST FLAT OUT KO'D MICHAEL BISPING! DUDE WAS OUT AND THEN GASTELUM LANDED ONE TOO MANY SHOTS AFTER THE FACT! GOD DAMN MAN!