Quick Shots, BMW Championship
It’s a big week on the European Tour with the BMW Championships taking place at Wentworth. Last year we had a huge showdown between Lee Westwood and Luke Donald that went into extra holes. You’ll also remember that this is where Luke Donald pipped the World #1 Ranking off of Westwood. Very similar scenario this week with McIlroy, Westwood, and Donald all in position to take #1 depending on how it all goes.
I’ll take these in order of the odds
Luke Donald, 8/1, had a great back 9 at TPC Sawgrass; touch and go other than that over the past few weeks. Just not scoring the way that Luke Donald had last season. I suppose it’s down to short game and putting. Will be there or thereabouts this weekend, if you can find a T10 prop at a good price I’d get in on it.
Lee Westwood, 10/1, I’ll bottom line it for you, until Lee starts having the putter warm up he’s going to be tough to back. All other parts of his game look good, but you need to make the odd 10 foot putt to score. I hope it heats up this weekend, I’ll be watching closely.
Rory McIlroy, 11/1, has a chance to win every time he puts a peg in the ground (as long as it’s not Sawgrass). 11/1 isn’t a bad price, hard not to consider.
Justin Rose, 20/1, has cooled off slightly from the start of the season, I’d be looking for a T10 prop here. Will be boosted by being back in Blimey this week, boosted by new apparel sponsor. 20/1 for Justin Rose with his play so far this season looks like one hell of a good price.
Martin Kaymer, 28/1, if you read my blog you know what I’m going to say already. Not to pile on, but he had an awful Volvo Championship. You’re more likely to win by getting a scratch off ticket at your local gas station.
Picks for Value
Ben Curtis, 33/1, HOTTEST hand on the PGA Tour right now with the exception of Jason Dufner. Slightly worried about having to play away from home but Ben started the season out on the Euro Tour and played well. I like the price at 33/1, and would go HEAVY if you can find a T10 prop somewhere. He keeps playing like this and he’ll have to make plans later on this season to travel to Medinah.
Graeme McDowell, 33/1, played his way into the final of the Volvo and looked good doing so. Good but not great price for Graeme.
Ian Poulter, 33/1, I wish that I could provide actual metrics here, but this for me feels like the week going into the Australian Masters for Ian. I had a feeling then that he was going to threaten a win, and feel the same way this week. He’s playing well, and I get the feeling that he is absolutely desperate to win this tournament this week. Ian excels at taking positive rounds and stringing them together, forgetting easily about the average rounds in between. Boosted hugely by the first round at TPC Sawgrass among other recent rounds. I look for another flying start, if you can get him as a first round leader it’d be worth a look.
Martin Laird and Paul Lawrie, 50/1, both are playing extremely well at the moment, and a tremendous pick for value in terms of price at 50/1.
Branden Grace, 66/1, not a great Volvo, but not bad either. Most in form player at the moment on the Euro Tour. Great price for someone who is playing so well.