Nationals (12-15) at Yankees (16-15)
Note From Evan: Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, jabronis and jabronettes, and Yankee fans of all ilk, Sam and I are here to let you know that we now have a third contributor here at Inside the Gift Basket, and this is his first post. Everyone say hi to Julio and from now on you’ll have to bring on more cupcake to class to share with everyone. And with that, onto the good stuff.
Game 1: Friday at 7:05pm EDT on YES and MLBN – Jameson Taillon (1-2, 5.24 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (1-3, 8.10 ERA)
Game 2: Saturday at 1:05pm EDT on YES and MLBN – Corey Kluber (2-2, 3.03 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (2-2, 2.54 ERA)
Game 3: Sunday at 1:05pm EDT on YES and MLBN – Domingo German (2-2, 4.32 ERA) vs. Joe Ross (2-2, 4.39 ERA)
Nationals Injury Report
SP Stephen Strasburg: 10-day IL (shoulder inflammation) – will miss series
RP Wander Suero: 10-day IL (oblique strain) – both he and Strasburg will throw in a simulated game Friday
RP Seth Romero: day-to-day (ribs) – will begin throwing next week
LF Juan Soto: day-to-day (shoulder strain) – should get some at-bats this series, may start at DH
Nationals Pitching
Strong starting pitching was a hallmark of the Nationals during their run of eight straight winning seasons from 2012 to 2019, culminating in a World Series victory the final year of the streak. While their core ace trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin remains intact, only Scherzer of the three has continued to see success in 2020 and 2021, and the starting rotation as a whole has struggled, posting a 4.67 ERA (23rd in MLB). Strasburg has barely pitched as he has been plagued by injuries over the last year and a half.
Clay, NY native and childhood Yankees fan Patrick Corbin will pitch the opener opposite Taillon. In 2018 and 2019 Corbin was one of the better pitchers in baseball, finishing 5th and 11th respectively in the NL Cy Young Award race those years while frustrating batters with his trademark tailing-away slider. To say he suffered a World Series hangover may be an understatement:
What has gone wrong for Corbin? Even he and Nationals manager Davey Martinez aren’t sure as it doesn’t appear to be a physical or mechanical issue, and his velocity is close to the same as in his 2018-2019 peak.
There are a few possible explanations. One is that he’s lost some spin on his slider (from 2398 rpm in 2019 to 2218 rpm in 2021), and it has gone from one of the best single pitches in the game to basically league average, with opposing batters just not chasing it like they used to:
This means that Corbin has fallen behind on counts more than in the past, forcing him to go over the heart of the plate with his sinker to get strikes, and that pitch has been absolutely destroyed this year. It wasn’t a particularly great pitch for him in the past, either, but this year hitters are just teeing off on it (1.091 SLG).
Corbin is not striking guys out like he used to and is giving up hard-hit fly balls at an alarming rate. The average launch angle against his pitches has risen to a career-high 14.7° in 2021, and subsequently he has already allowed 7 home runs in just 23.1 IP. For the sake of comparison, he allowed 15 HR in all of 2018 (200 IP).
There are some encouraging signs as he has looked better lately after a cataclysmic start. He allowed 16 ER in 6.1 IP to the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in his first two starts of the season but has pitched to a 3.18 ERA in three starts (17 IP) since. He hasn’t exactly faced red-hot offenses in that span (Mets, Cardinals, Marlins), and the underlying numbers are still not all that great, but it’s progress.
Max Scherzer will pitch the second game in what could be a very good duel with the surging Corey Kluber. Now in his age 36 season, Scherzer is continuing to put up excellent numbers, and like in recent years, the key to beating him is the long ball. He has allowed a measly 27 hits all year in 39 innings pitched, but 7 of the hits have been homers. He doesn’t walk guys, so the Yankees’ best bet against him is to try to barrel up his occasional mistakes and knock them out of the park.
The finale pits RHP Joe Ross against Domingo German, with both pitchers posting remarkably similar numbers so far this season:
Rather like Corbin, however, Ross’ numbers are inflated by one very bad performance (10 ER allowed to the Cardinals on April 19), and he has pitched well outside of that game. Ross has been a mediocre pitcher most of his career, though, so it’s not like these numbers aren’t indicative of what to expect from him. His slider is his definitive put-away pitch (responsible for 15 of his 21 strikeouts), but his other offerings have been hit hard. He also has a strong platoon split (vs RHH: .241/.287/.394, vs. LHH: .297/.376/.474), so expect the Yankees to give most of their available lefty hitters a start in the series finale.
While the rotation has been disappointing, the Nationals’ pen has been a strength for the team in the early going. Washington relievers own a league-best .185 batting average against, admittedly aided by one of the better defenses in the league (league-leading 24 DRS), and offseason acquisition Brad Hand has been a stabilizing force at the back of games, having yet to allow an earned run this year.
Daniel Hudson, Austin Voth, Sam Clay, and Wander Suero (who is likely going to miss this series) have all posted solid numbers behind him, and their most-used reliever, Kyle Finnegan, threw an immaculate inning in their just-completed series with the Braves. Ex-Astro Will Harris was recently activated off the IL and has very good career numbers, though the Yankees have hit him well historically.
The one major blip is Tanner Rainey, who was one of their most important relievers the last two years but has struggled mightily so far this season. He is likely to be limited to low-leverage action until he gets his act together.
Nationals Lineup
A consistently strong offensive team during their 2010’s run, peaking in 2017 when they led the NL in team OPS, the Nationals have had to weather the departure of important contributors like Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon in recent years. While they still have a few dependably great hitters in the lineup, their offensive output in 2021 has been, at best, mediocre:
As a team they get a lot of hits (for 2021 standards, anyway), as their .247 batting average somehow actually leads the National League. However, they rarely draw walks and have not hit for power so far this year (outside of Trea Turner), resulting in a poor .696 team OPS and a marked difficulty putting up runs – they have yet to score more than 7 runs in any game this season and have been shut out five times. They are coming off a three-game sweep at home at the hands of the Braves in which they only scored six runs.
With Juan Soto battling a shoulder injury, Trea Turner has been their most important and all-around best position player:
While his numbers are a bit down from an outstanding 2020 (163 OPS+) that saw him finish 7th in the NL MVP race, he hits the ball hard to all fields, runs like the wind, and is a plus defender at shortstop. He has been a top 20 player in baseball this year in both bWAR and fWAR.
Antoher bright spot has been Josh Harrison, who signed with the Nationals as a reclamation project after seemingly forgetting how to hit sometime between 2018 and 2019; he has just about revived his career and been one of the team’s best hitters. The same cannot be said for his longtime Pirates teammate Josh Bell, who has been a nonfactor at the plate. While the Nats have been giving him (and the also-struggling Kyle Schwarber) plenty of opportunities to snap out of it, expect them to give more playing time to the hot-hitting Ryan Zimmerman at first base moving forward.
Lastly, keep an eye out for young phenom Juan Soto – he just came off the IL from a shoulder injury and pinch-hit a few times in the Braves series. According to the Nationals, he is ready to start hitting every day, but they are reluctant to let him play the field as his shoulder is not yet fully recovered and he should not be making throws. Luckily for them they are playing in an AL park this weekend, so he may get some starts at DH against the Yankees (which is, of course, bad news for us).
Yankees focus on: Wandy Peralta
LHP “Magic” Wandy Peralta came over from San Francisco (along with a PTBNL) in exchange for beloved backup OF Mike Tauchman, much to the chagrin of certain Yankees fans. Now in his 6th season, the 29 year-old Peralta has, on the surface, been largely unremarkable as a major leaguer to date, with a career 4.66 ERA and 1.477 WHIP. While he is coming off a solid 2020 in which he posted a career-best 3.29 ERA, he struggled to start this season in San Francisco and fell out of Gabe Kapler’s Circle of Trust™.
The raw numbers don’t jump out at you, but clearly the Yankees viewed Peralta as an interesting piece if they were willing to go so far as to part with Tauchman for him. After a bit of digging, it’s not hard to see why they found him appealing:
The underlying metrics have been impressive. In fact, his stuff has looked much better so far this year than it did in 2020, despite posting better standard stats last year.
It may be a microscopic sample size, but Peralta has looked promising in his first few appearances with the Yankees. The coaching staff has encouraged him to spam his wipeout changeup, to great effect:
While he has lost command of the changeup at times earlier in his career, it’s an incredible pitch when he’s throwing it well. So far this season: xBA of .109, xSLG of .133, and a -3 launch angle.
Last year his slider was a very good pitch, but this year it hasn’t been as effective, thus the Yankees have responded by ramping up his changeup usage and cutting back on the slider. In an ideal world, Peralta can learn to use them both effectively to pair with his plus heater. The raw stuff is there, and it always has been; the hope is that the Yankees’ coaching staff can get Peralta to harness his talent and potential.
With Tauchman playing well in San Francisco to this point and providing much-needed support for their banged-up outfield, this could be a trade that proves to be a win-win for both teams involved.
