New Post has been published on TRADE MASTER TEAM
New Post has been published on https://trademasterteam.com/forex-strategies/forex-news-trading-strategy-for-the-10th-14th-of-april/24921
Forex News Trading Strategy for The 10th - 14th of April
Oh hi folks Chris Mathis here and welcome to our weekly risk events video for the week beginning april 2 10th 2017 now before we get started just want to let everybody know this is a shorter week as we have a holiday on Monday across most of the world the US banks will be open but the markets will be closed this will extend through Monday as well and then things should get back to normal around Tuesday of next week so tuesday april be 18th friday and monday likely to be very thinly traded days okay so quick recap what we saw last week last week investors focus was on the US dollar the key events were the release of the Fed minutes the u.s. March employment report and obviously had an unexpected a US missile strike on a Syrian Air Base as well we also have other geopolitical risk with terror attacks that we've seen in Sweden and Russia we had the US and Chinese presidents meeting but that was a fairly quiet event we didn't hear a lot from either side at least nothing negative at this point so the main takeaway from the FOMC minutes were the first details the feds plan to wind down the four and a half trillion balance sheet the general consensus is that the Fed will begin to change their investment program around December of this year and there was actually very little market reaction to the minutes we didn't see very much in the currency market we didn't see very much in the bond market so obviously we'll continue to follow any any news as far as the balance sheet but right now again consensus is for the the Fed to start and wind that down at the end of the year US missile strikes in Syria did catch the market off guard and created some uncertainty market although this will likely be a very limited driver if there is no further escalation if there is escalation then we're going to see more risk off sentiment in the market risk Gulf sediment would see flows into the Japanese yen Swiss franc these are safe haven assets also the the US dollar against some other currencies and then the week did end with disappointing US jobs report at least as far as the employment gains employment gains were much weaker than expected praying it just 98,000 for the month of March well below the 180,000 consensus on the positive side of the data unemployment and underemployment dent to their lowest levels in the decade the participation rate held steady and wages printed in line with expectations most of the slowdown is likely due to unfavorable weather conditions in March now we saw a sharp declines in weather sensitive sectors likely a result of the large category 3 storm that swept through the Northeast United States during the month ok so that brings us to this week this week we'll see CPI inflation data from the UK need china and the u.s. also in the schedule our employment reports before of the UK and Australia midweek we had the Bank of Canada set to deliver their latest rate decision statement and monetary policy report this will likely be a bit more volatile because we do have a press conference with that Bank of Canada decision as well and again shorter week because of holidays new eurozone UK Australia New Zealand Canada on Friday the u.s. CPI does come out on friday but the markets will be very thinly traded I important to note that the bank's the u.s. banks are open on Friday but the markets are closed now before we get into some of the key data points here just want to kind of remind everybody a lot of geopolitical risk out there right now so it's always important to recognize that and understand how it can impact the market so we might not have to wait long to hear something about the US employment report as we have fed chair Yellen scheduled to speak at the University of Michigan audience questions are expected so it could hear very early in the week the fed chair's comments on the latest jobs report we would expect yelling to highlight the the weather factors in a report as well as point to the positives as far as the unemployment rate the underemployment rate and of course a participation rate as well this will be very big week for the UK and for the British Pound will get the CPI inflation numbers coming out on Tuesday now at some point we expect the overall brexit scenario to start to weigh on the British Pound even though last week we saw the services PMI come in a better than expected we started to see some weakness in the manufacturing and construction sectors with a british pound right now it almost seems like we're just waiting for the next shoe to drop once the market starts to get that feel that the data is starting to come down will likely start to see that pound so off again inflation here is going to be a very important number because with inflation rising and being above target the last MPC meeting at NBC member changed their vote to immediately hike interest rates we also had a couple of other MPC members turn a bit more hawkish so things a little bit different now we also have article 50 has been triggered market is you know expecting some economic slowdown to come into the UK any weakness here should start to trigger that sentiment for a weaker British Pound also for the British Pound we have the average earnings and employment situation coming out claimant count change expected to decline again by about ten thousand employment rate expected the hold steady at force about seven percent and average earnings expect the pool back again to to spot one set any negative data here could be a nice opportunity that intensely shorts the british pound against the US dollar so the cable comes to mind we look at the cable here we've seen a nice bit of a decline so any pullback of the current cycle here and we'll just just take a brief look at how we can handle this a little bit oops so any pullback of this current cycle may be back up towards that won 24-17 anywhere from 120 for 50 any pullback of this cycle if we're seeing that coming into the week with that data coming up a negative data could accelerate this downside move for the cable so that will be something we can really watch out for here as well also on wednesday will have the bank of canada monetary policy report this has the potential to be a little bit more volatile because we do have the press conference as well so we have a statement the overnight rate no change expected canadian data has been fairly strong the jobs data that came out was once again strong for the fourth consecutive month oil prices have been rallying which has been positive for the canadian dollar to continue if we see a more hawkish it really depends on what the central bank says here with the tone overall so we have to be a little bit cautious but any anything that's positive from the central bank if they do talk about the improvement spending and the labor market then will very likely see the cad continue to strengthen especially if we had the oil market considering the rally in this case i would like to keep an eye here on the euro cad for a decline you can see a pretty strong move last week well the week before last that we had a kind of a retest failed to actually get up to those highs so with the economic situation and if we start to see continued strengthen the oil market here let's say we get a pullback of this kurt cycle me back up towards that 40 to 60 area going into wednesday's central bank meeting with a more positive confident and hawkish central bank we would look for the Canadian dollar strengthened and the euros already one of our weaker currencies coming in your cat could see more downside also this week don't forget about the Chinese data as far as the australian dollars concern will get the CPI the PPI Wednesday and will get the trade balance rubber that big switch and trade balance that we saw for last month also will get the Australian employment data coming up so all of this going to be very important for the Australian dollar Osman was fairly weak over the last week a lot of that had to do with the overall lack of risk appetite to market with the odds of being a higher yielding currency we also saw a missile retail sales and had a bit more of a cautious RBA employment going to be really important here because the RBA has expressed some concerns about the labour market overall morena biology has a lot of things affecting especially with the overall tone in the market right now so for example if we see a markets willing to take on some risk they're shaking off some of the geopolitical tensions that we've seen we get positive data that would allow the algae to rally positive Australian data but a uncertain market as far as risk as conservator if we see risk aversion in the market that would likely cap any significant strength in the Ozzie and obviously if we had a strong risk off environment and we had negative data out of Australia and China then that would send the ozzy lower okay and then again we have a shorter week this week you can see we have holidays across most of the road on Friday would you get the u.s. TPI and retail sales however I won't be trading those because it will be such a thin mark at that point in time ever the US markets are closed as well the banks will be opened but the you us markets will be closed so be very thinly traded also if we look at monday the 17th so we'll get some chinese data coming out are on the week but majority of the world going to be on holiday so going into a long weekend be very cautious about trading there at the end of the week okay pops Mets our risk events video for the week thanks for watching and we'll see you again next week for another risk events video
