“Pitcher X brings Y” A look at 10 options for the Yankees in the upcoming off season
Joey
October 28th
The Yankees have plenty of reasons for not playing games into the final week of October. Unfortunately for them, it boils down to not being able to hit more so than any serious pitching deficiency. Unfortunately x2 there's not a lot of options for them in terms of upgrading their offense (You've got maybe one infield position open, maybe one outfield spot available, no real room for a full time DH) so chasing the mythical ace will be at the top of the agenda. The Yankees have implied that they're ill-prepared to spend beyond their means but let's say they DO drift into the starter pool. I'm going to take a peek at ten different starters and discuss what they would offer the Yankees in 2020 and maybe even going forward.
Gerrit Cole- Peace Of Mind
Simply put, you can pick whatever metric you want and Gerrit Cole tops any Yankees pitcher. There's maybe 4-5 guys better than Cole at this point in his career as he finally has taken the step up from where he was in Pittsburgh. There's really no point in writing an endless wall of words to descibe how special of a player Gerrit Cole is. He's likely to comfortably blow by the contract that David Price got (7 year, 215 mil) after a superb season where he outdueled his own teammate to become the ace of the Astros staff. Cole is the best player on the market, arguably the best pitcher to hit the open market since Cliff Lee did it in 2010 and is the youngest proven no flaws ace to hit the free agent market since a 29 year old CC Sabathia did in 2009. The Yankees got that guy and got 10 years of superb production including a World Series ring so why not do the same with Gerrit Cole? Cole gives the Yankees the no questions asked #1 starter they seem to be dying for. He would give this team (or any team really) a set it and forget it ace who you can rely on given his stuff, mental makeup and durability. For the Yankees, Cole + Severino + Tanaka + Paxton gives you the workhouse anchor who allows the Yankees to take some of the pressure off of Tanaka (a stud in the postseason but a guy who has struggled with injuries and inconsistency), Severino (coming off an injury marred season and poor in the playoffs with a small sample size) and James Paxton (struggled with injuries throughout his career). For 235 to 250 million dollars, the Yankees can buy peace of mind.
Stephen Strasburg- The prototypical Yankee arm
I'd like to imagine every team would want a Stephen Strasburg. For the Yankees though, Strasburg is pretty much what they draw up a starting pitcher to look like. The Yankees historically like big tall pitchers and Strasburg fits that bill. Knowing the dimensions of their park, they prefer guys who can go out there and pitch as close to no contact as possible. Strasburg led the ML with strikeouts in 2019. They aim to amass pitchers who if they DO get hit can pitch to soft contact. Strasburg does that as well. When healthy (and that's a serious maybe) with Strasburg, he's got Cole-esque properties. The Yankees have gotten to watch him pitch deep into the playoffs as a capable #2 (and at times #1) behind Max Scherzer. One of the bigger philosophies inside the organization is that pitchers throw less fastballs (the Yankees were last in 2017 and 2018 in fast balls thrown as a staff) and Strasburg throws his fastball less than 50% of the time. There's a lot to love here if you can overlook the age with Strasburg being 31 and the injury history. Strasburg fits the current Yankees mindset despite having two serious flaws that traditionally has not worked out well with this team. This feels less like a marriage of love a la Cole and more a marriage of convenience but those can absolutely work too.
Hyun Jin Ryu- A potential ace IF
It would take a tremendous lying effort to convince people that the options after Cole and Strasburg are sure things. That said there's plenty to like about the names going forward. If you start with Hyun Jin-Ryu, you're talking about a guy with ace like qualities. The three times where Ryu has had an extended opportunity to show his stuff, he's been pretty much everything you'd want a pitcher to be. In his first year in the majors, he put up a 14-8 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across 192 innings. In his sophomore campaign over 152 innings he pulled up a 14-7 and 3.38 follow up. The problem is that from 2014 to 2018, there's a lot of dead space within that resume. A lot of injuries and so-so production taint Ryu's overall free agent profile. In 2019 he returned to form as pretty much the same guy he was when he showed up; relying on a lot of ground ball outs, minimal walks and minimal hard contact to cruise in with a 14-5 record and a 2.32 ERA. Behind Walker Buehler and the resume of Clayton Kershaw, Ryu saw the mound in game three of the NDLS and cooked up a 5 inning start (a rare start where he didn't give the Dodgers length) with only 2 runs on his ledger when he left. Ryu is a potential ace IF you can overlook the injury concerns, the advanced age and are willing to err on the side of optimism that switching leagues will not lead to you regretting the deal two years down the line. A lot of ifs but a supremely talented arm to consider as your potential #2 behind Severino.
Madison Bumgarner- An October Answer
No pitcher figures to have a weirder stock than Madison Bumgarner. From 2013 to 2017, he was among the the premier arms in major league baseball. We're talking about a four time All Star who garnered Cy Young votes with an ERA+ that never fell under 115. Even in 2018, considered the start of the decline, he was a pretty damn solid arm. Since 2018 though, the years and the innings have begun to rack up and Bumgarner has entered into this weird Verlander in Detroit-y "I'm not sure if he's done but he's not who he once was" middle ground. That said the Yankees wouldn't be bringing in Bumgarner for what he does from March to September. If they sign him, they're probably going to carry his elevated HR rate and declining stuff to a mid 4-ish ERA and they'll probably tolerate him shouting at home run hitters who aren't jettisoning it out of the box because a Bumgarner signing is entirely about postseason prestige. We ARE talking about a pitcher who pitched to a 5+ ERA on the road with middling stuff who would be going from San Francisco to a park with arguably the worst dimensions possible for his skill set. It's not about that though. If Bumgarner is pretty damn good in the summer, he's insane in the fall when the games count a hell of a lot more. We're talking about a career 2.11 ERA in the post season and an era UNDER 1 in World Series play. The Yankees would be getting Bumgarner almost for the same reason they'd be getting Cole; there's a peace of mind in having a guy like that in big games. There's something to be said for the Yankees to slot him in as a game 2 or game 3 starter knowing full well that the history of the player indicates he's going to handle business. Even if Bumgarner is an innings eating #4 from April to September, he would step in and inspire insane confidence in October just on the years and years of work he put in already. In many ways, he's another Masahiro Tanaka. Is one month of greatness with five months of meh worth 15 mil or so?
Zack Wheeler- An Illusion?
I'm already getting tired of the takes about Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler having enough similarities that Wheeler is a poor man's Cole. I'll let MLB do the hard work there (https://www.mlb.com/news/zack-wheeler-has-potential-comp-in-gerrit-cole) and you can read for yourself all of the comparisons. Zack Wheeler has been in the Mets rotation in some form or fashion since 2013. Despite that, he's been historically a pretty okay-ish pitcher who is more of a tease than a sure thing. He's an illusion of what may be; electric stuff, stretches of inconsistency, stretches of #1 type performance and the reputation of being a guy who gets better as the year goes along. It's believed the Yankees had some interest in Wheeler (even if at this point, it feels like their focus was more on Bumgarner, Minor and Boyd) and the general rule of thumb is if Cashman wants you once, he'll do what he can to get you eventually. For me though Zack Wheeler represents another AJ Burnett. He's about to turn 30 years old and has been in the majors longer than Gerrit Cole has. He just might be what he is but teams are going to pay for what he may be. It's an illusion of a cost controlled (in theory) ace with elite stuff that can work anywhere. He's the most overly reliant of all the names mentioned so far and has the worst injury history as well. There's always going to be a belief that if you get a guy like him out of a bad spot, he'll wind up achieving his potential. That's the illusion. What you can pay for the illusion is the debate.
