The violent disturbances occurred in a nationalist area yet played out against a backdrop of union jacks
As the racially motivated violence unfolded in Northern Ireland this week, a striking dissonanace could be seen behind the mobs and flames and smoke. The knife attack that triggered the disturbances occurred in a nationalist area yet the mayhem played out against a backdrop of union jacks and loyalist murals. You could watch rioters hurl missiles and target foreigners on Shankill Road, then cross a few blocks to Falls Road, bedecked with Irish tricolours and republican murals, and experience serenity. History, demographics and psychology can explain some of the diverging community reactions, but there is also a familiar factor at play under the surface – paramilitaries. The security services and some academics say there are more loyalist paramilitaries today than in 1998 when the Good Friday agreement drew a line under the Troubles. One estimate from 2020 put the number as high as 12,500, albeit with many members inactive. The Ulster Volunteer Force and Ulster Defence Association, which are proscribed as terrorist groups in the UK, have endured despite engaging in a state-sponsored process of “transitioning” that is supposed to phase out their existence. The groups have split into sub-groups. Some are involved in drug dealing, extortion and racketeering while others have cooperated with politicians and civic society organisations that seek to consign them to history. The riots have renewed scrutiny because they happened in areas where paramilitaries wield influence. Ryan Henderson, an assistant chief constable, said police had no evidence that paramilitaries orchestrated the violence. Instead, there is evidence that some paramilitary leaders chose neutrality, neither stoking nor impeding the violence, to make a point: beware a vacuum.
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