Do you think that the Dance is also meant to be a foreshadowing for the books like D vs fA or Jon? Because I feel like with how the story is centered to the Starks, whoever gains their support (obv Jon if he joins 😂) will win and we get to have a second hour of the wolf
Let's put it this way: The main novel series is the point, and the Dance of Dragons is a result of its existence, it is fictional historical backstory that is meant to inform, illustrate and foreshadow the events of the main series.
The first book of the main novel series was published in 1996. It already contained references to the Dance of the Dragons, and they reappear sprinkled through the series, increasing in detail and relevance.
What is interesting is that the thing most emphasized about the Dance in the main series is the intra-family strife. Brother v. sister - and transcribed into the kingsguard: brother against brother, metaphorical and literal.
Bran was going to be a knight himself someday, one of the Kingsguard. [...] Bran knew all the stories. [...] The twins Ser Erryk and Ser Arryk, who had died on one another's swords hundreds of years ago, when brother fought sister in the war the singers called the Dance of the Dragons. (AGOT, Bran II)
It's a popular, high-culture piece of music that plays on the multiple perspectives of the historical event.
Later, while Sansa was off listening to a troupe of singers perform the complex round of interwoven ballads called the "Dance of the Dragons," Ned inspected the bruise himself. (AGOT, Eddard VII)
A Clash of Kings (1998) contains no reference, though you could consider the entire developing civil war to be an answer to that first reference.
A Storm of Swords (2000) picks it up again in much greater detail.
Stannis - notably having killed his brother over the throne - emphasizes the aspect of treason while discussing the fate of his wife's uncle Alester Florent.
"It has always been so. I am not . . . I am not a cruel man, Ser Davos. You know me. Have known me long. This is not my decree. It has always been so, since Aegon's day and before. Daemon Blackfyre, the brothers Toyne, the Vulture King, Grand Maester Hareth . . . traitors have always paid with their lives . . . even Rhaenyra Targaryen. She was daughter to one king and mother to two more, yet she died a traitor's death for trying to usurp her brother's crown. It is law. Law, Davos. Not cruelty." (ASOS, Davos IV)
The song makes another appearance at Joffrey's wedding, once again emphasizing that it is a complex story from multiple perspectives. Also setting up the inter-Lannister collapse that has been brewing for a while and explodes with Joffrey's murder.
Collio began with his version of "The Dance of the Dragons," which was more properly a song for two singers, male and female. (ASOS, Tyrion VIII)
Jaime brings it back around to the kingsguard pseudo-brotherhood, which mirrors the inter-family aspect of the civil war.
The old and the new. Jaime wondered if that meant anything. There had been times during its history where the Kingsguard had been divided against itself, most notably and bitterly during the Dance of the Dragons. Was that something he needed to fear as well? (ASOS, Jaime VIII)
Given the mess that is made of the kingsguard in the coming book in KL and in Dorne... yes, Jaime.
By AFFC (2005) GRRM firmly establishes the Dance as a historical reference for destructive civil war over feuding siblings.
And the songs he chose . . . He sang of the Dance of the Dragons, of fair Jonquil and her fool, of Jenny of Oldstones and the Prince of Dragonflies. He sang of betrayals, and murders most foul, of hanged men and bloody vengeance. He sang of grief and sadness. (AFFC, Sansa I)
It also turns the focus on Criston Cole as an alleged external engineer of such strife. Interestingly, his arms resemble a ladybug, Targaryen colors but not Targaryen.
"Most deserve to be forgotten. The heroes will always be remembered. The best." "The best and the worst." So one of us is like to live in song. "And a few who were a bit of both. Like him." He tapped the page he had been reading. "Who?" Ser Loras craned his head around to see. "Ten black pellets on a scarlet field. I do not know those arms." "They belonged to Criston Cole, who served the first Viserys and the second Aegon." Jaime closed the White Book. "They called him Kingmaker." (AFFC, Jaime II)
Contrasting to Stannis, Arianne uses the Dance as an example of treason from the other side, trying to manipulate kingsguard Arys Oakheart into supporting her coup against her father and brother, even though by Dornish custom her role would more rightly resemble that of Aegon II because she is the legal heir and believes her father to favor second-born Quentyn. Notably, Criston Cole is blamed over all Targaryen's involved. Ridiculous but probably significant.
Ser Criston Cole. Criston the Kingmaker had set brother against sister and divided the Kingsguard against itself, bringing on the terrible war the singers named the Dance of the Dragons. Some claimed he acted from ambition, for Prince Aegon was more tractable than his willful older sister. Others allowed him nobler motives, and argued that he was defending ancient Andal custom. A few whispered that Ser Criston had been Princess Rhaenyra's lover before he took the white and wanted vengeance on the woman who had spurned him. "The Kingmaker wrought grave harm," Ser Arys said, "and gravely did he pay for it, but . . ." (AFFC, The Soiled Knight)
Quite fittingly, Arianne's own little "dance" ends with horror and death and deep regret on her side, while poor Quentyn is busy on the other side of the planet.
Meanwhile, GRRM keeps the subject current in ADWD (2011) after Tyrion joins the entourage of "Young Griff", mixing in a reminder of different perspective on historical events. And some dragonslaying. Clearly, he has compiled a lot of detailed backstory for this civil war by now.
Haldon was unimpressed. "Even Duck knows that tale. Can you tell me the name of the knight who tried the same ploy with Vhagar during the Dance of the Dragons?" Tyrion grinned. "Ser Byron Swann. He was roasted for his trouble … only the dragon was Syrax, not Vhagar." "I fear that you're mistaken. In The Dance of the Dragons, A True Telling, Maester Munkun writes—" "—that it was Vhagar. Grand Maester Munkun errs. Ser Byron's squire saw his master die, and wrote his daughter of the manner of it. His account says it was Syrax, Rhaenyra's she-dragon, which makes more sense than Munken's version. Swann was the son of a marcher lord, and Storm's End was for Aegon. Vhagar was ridden by Prince Aemond, Aegon's brother. Why should Swann want to slay her?" (ADWD, Tyrion III)
Dragonslaying comes up again in the context of Hazzea and the effects of dragons in general.
If I look back, I am doomed, Dany told herself … but how could she not look back? I should have seen it coming. Was I so blind, or did I close my eyes willfully, so I would not have to see the price of power? Viserys had told her all the tales when she was little. He loved to talk of dragons. She knew how Harrenhal had fallen. She knew about the Field of Fire and the Dance of the Dragons. One of her forebears, the third Aegon, had seen his own mother devoured by his uncle's dragon. And there were songs beyond count of villages and kingdoms that lived in dread of dragons till some brave dragonslayer rescued them. At Astapor the slaver's eyes had melted. On the road to Yunkai, when Daario tossed the heads of Sallor the Bald and Prendahl na Ghezn at her feet, her children made a feast of them. Dragons had no fear of men. And a dragon large enough to gorge on sheep could take a child just as easily. (ADWD, Daenerys II)
In a telling twist on the name that pulls it directly into the present and likely future, we look at burned Quentyn:
After the girl was gone, the old knight peeled back the coverlet for one last look at Quentyn Martell's face, or what remained of it. So much of the prince's flesh had sloughed away that he could see the skull beneath. His eyes were pools of pus. He should have stayed in Dorne. He should have stayed a frog. Not all men are meant to dance with dragons. (ADWD, The Queen's Hand)
Which echoes again with Arianne in her TWOW sample chapters (2010-ish), which (interestingly) also flesh out her relationship with Daemon Sand, an intentional reference to a prominent character in the dance linked to Rhaenyra.
"Once we know beyond a doubt whether these be friends or foes, my father will know what to do," the princess said. It was then that pasty, pudgy Teora raised her eyes from the creamcakes on her plate. "It is dragons." "Dragons?" said her mother. "Teora, don't be mad." "I'm not. They're coming." "How could you possibly know that?" her sister asked, with a note of scorn in her voice. "One of your little dreams?" Teora gave a tiny nod, chin trembling. "They were dancing. In my dream. And everywhere the dragons danced the people died."
Much like with Daenerys, this reference emphasizes the destructive effects of the dragon-based civil war.
Since Arianne's little stint as pseudo-Rhaenyra went nowhere, but the Dance references remain thick and strong, we can likely look at her upcoming connection to Aegon as the point of it all.
Incidentally, GRRM has already set up their future conflict:
Now, how do you suppose this queen will react when you turn up with your begging bowl in hand and say, 'Good morrow to you, Auntie. I am your nephew, Aegon, returned from the dead. I've been hiding on a poleboat all my life, but now I've washed the blue dye from my hair and I'd like a dragon, please … and oh, did I mention, my claim to the Iron Throne is stronger than your own?' " (ADWD, Tyrion VI)
This places Tyrion into the role of a Cole-figure, hilariously, having pushed Aegon into changing direction to claim the throne directly without Dany.
There's the strife between family members, kingsguards, factions, and manipulative third parties, all over a throne that really isn't worth it, told from multiple perspectives, bringing misery and destruction to the smallfolk.
All the extra material on the Dance of Dragons was published after ADWD, from A World of Ice and Fire (2014) to the novellas (2013-2024) to Fire and Blood (2018), with one small reference to the extinction of the dragons after the Dance in The Mystery Knight (2010). So all this backstory was compiled and built up in the service of of the main story GRRM is telling.
You rightfully bring up Jon, Daenerys and Aegon all together, but it's extremely unlikely that Jon Snow is going to be a driving factor in a Dance of Dragons 2.0 because he will only just find out that he has Targaryen ancestry, and in a way that puts him it in conflict with her Stark ancestry.
No, this war is going to be between two established family members who both have claims and means alongside the ambition to ascend the Iron Throne. Not quite brother v. sister but aunt v. nephew. Tragic, destructive, self-destructive. Much like what the Baratheon brothers have served us before. Only with dragons involved on Dany's side, while Aegon mixes it up by simultaneously representing the Dornish side of the story, through his mother Elia - which is a whole different kettle of fish.
Jon's presence in there is probably going to be a very interesting complicating factor that might go in many different directions, with mirrors to Robb's Will and Stannis' offer of legitimization (another theme in the Dance), to accusations of manipulation and ambition (Criston Cole). The role of the prophecy is also going to be explored in all its myopic self-destructive emptiness.
This won't be a copy of the first Dance, though.
If there is an Hour of the Wolf, it's going to preside not over scarred survivors, but over the ashes and corpses of King's Landing and the Targaryen legacy in Westeros.













