#meteorolgy

[theweatherlab]

[hurricanewaves]

Hurricane Maria as of 12:20 EST September 19th, 2017

[theweatherlab]

[scienceguy22]

Sorry, Grandma, your Farmer's Almanac is not a reliable weather model.

Although farmers trust animals, animals respond to immediate atmospheric changes rather than predict the future. This has nothing to do with the Farmer's Almanac, which predicts the year's weather. Statistical analyses show that the Almanac fares no better than flipping a coin, in other words, 50/50. They use words like "warm" or "cold," making it easy to fit reality. Despite their claim of 80% accuracy, compared to meteorological analyses, which use physics, satellites, radar & data assimilation, weather balloons, surface stations & data assimilation algorithms that ingest millions of real-time data points & solve the Navier-Stokes equations (fluid dynamics) to simulate the atmosphere, their 5-day forecasts are 90% accurate, and 7-day forecasts are extremely reliable for 1-7 days & moderately accurate for 8-10 days; you just can't compare them. Anything longer than that is basically a coin flip. Only broad climatological trends remain.

The Farmer's Almanac predictions simply cannot replace meteorology's NOAA, the National Weather Service (NWS), or the weather network's National Environmental Satellite, Data & Information Service. Basically, the Almanac is a horoscope with cornfields; meteorology is science.

[scienceguy22]

The 7.39-second sky serpent was so long that satellites had to prove it happened.

This was a record-breaking megaflash of lightning during a thunderstorm that streaked across the Great Plains, U.S., for 515 miles, all the way from eastern Texas to Kansas City. It is now in the record books for the longest single lightning flash in the United States. The majority of flashes reach less than 10 miles. Megaflashes are defined as reaching 60 miles (100 km). The danger of megaflashes is that they shoot off 5-7 ground strikes from their horizontal path in the sky, & they can ignite surfaces, damage power lines, start a wildfire, or, worse, even kill anyone caught in their path. Lightning kills 20-30 people a year in the U.S. & 320 million trees, but global estimates range from 6,000-24,000 deaths & up to 50,000 injuries. Fatalities in Lake Victoria (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania), the DRC (the highest lightning density in the world), Venezuela, Colombia, Bangladesh & India during the pre-monsoon season have 10-50x higher fatality rates than the U.S. According to satellite data, there are around 1 million lightning flashes per day around the world.

Megaflashes contain huge stratiform charge reservoirs, essentially giant horizontal batteries. When one region discharges, the current can propagate sideways through the cloud for 100s of miles. The Great Plains megaflash occurred because there was warm, humid Gulf air surging northward & cold, dry air diving southward, & the collision created extreme atmospheric instability, resulting in a long-lived storm (14+ hours) with stratiform decks the size of New Jersey. In 1975, 21 people were killed by a single flash of lightning in Zimbabwe. And the greatest fatalities from an indirect strike occurred in 1994 in Droubka, Egypt, when lightning struck a set of oil tanks; burning oil flooded the town & killed more than 469 people. To stay safe during any thunderstorm, go indoors when lightning is detected within 6 miles of your location.

The only lightning-safe locations are substantial buildings that have wiring & plumbing, not structures at a beach or bus stop. The second reliably safe location is inside a fully enclosed metal-topped vehicle, not dune buggies or motorcycles. If you hear thunder, you're already in the danger zone, which is defined as 6 miles (10 km). Count 15 seconds between the time you see a flash & hear thunder & divide by 5 for miles away. For example, 15 /5 equals 3 miles away. For km, divide by 3. 15/3 means 5 km away. Light is effectively instant to you, but sound crawls along at 0.2 miles/second (0.33 km/s). The time lag is just distance divided by the speed of sound. Wait 30 minutes after the last thunder before going back outside. Also, thunder is rarely audible beyond 10-15 miles, so seeing lightning without thunder doesn't mean "safe"; it can just mean "too far to hear, for now."

[scienceguy22]

Groundhog Day 2026: Punxsutawney Phil sees shadow, predicts more winter

Phil’s prediction of a later spring did not mesh with his Canadian counterparts, Quebec’s Fred la Marmotte or Nova Scotia’s Schubenacadie Samm, both of whom predicted an early spring. Despite Phil allegedly being the world’s most seasoned forecaster, Phil (and any other groundhog, of course) would have a better track record if they’d just flip a coin. They’ve only been right about 35% of the time in the past two decades. Even if a groundhog predicted a beach day, April could still see a snowstorm. When it comes to correctly predicting temperatures that are above, below, or close to normal, meteorologists' long-range forecasts are about 50/50. Winter will end on the vernal (spring) equinox on March 20 at 10:46 a.m. ET or 14:46 UT, regardless of what any rodent predicts. Having said that, it’s always fun to offer a harmless tradition that brightens midwinter. The tradition here is knowingly playful and a wink at winter.

[theramblinghockeydude]

What is your passion in life?

What are you passionate about in life? What really gets you going and makes you happy, no matter what? Here are 3 things I have been passionate about in life and why.

Rock hunting. I know that sounds odd, how can one be passionate about...rocks. That is a good question, and maybe I can't fully answer that, but I just know that from a young age, I have loved rock hunting. I think what started me down that road as a young boy was the fascination with how many different types of rocks there are and what caused them to be so different. The thrill of going out and finding something that is just so cool looking was great as a young boy and let me tell you, that feeling never left as an adult. When rock hunting as a young boy most of my cool finds are either some variety of quartz or a nice piece of granite. I had no clue most of the time what the rock actually was back in those days, I just knew that it looked cool. When I got older and was able to venture out further and to different places, I was able to see more of what was out there. The trip in 2010 to SD was great, some of the agates I found were super cool. When my sister and I pulled into the first area we decided to try there was nothing but rocks as far as the eye could see. I mean, I could have spent the entire day at that area and still not covered everything I would have liked to. Another cool time I remember was when my sister had just got done taking some pictures at the horse corral area of Little Missouri State Park, beautiful wooden patio overlooking the badlands. We were driving back on a gravel road and I asked her to stop at this weathered away hillside to see what was there. Ended up finding some cool shale with a green mineral growing out of it. I wasn't sure what the mineral was, but it sure did look cool. This reminds me of driving back from the SD Badlands and stopping at a weathered away hillside to do some hunting and find some fantastic rocks there. One was a pretty decent sized agate that my friend thought looked like a dinosaur head. I always wanted to cut that rock open to see what it looked lik inside. The other part of rock hunting that I loved was the peace it brought me. Getting out on a beautiful day and just being alone with my thoughts was always nice. There was no stress, no anxiety, none of that existed in the rock hunting world, I could simply exist and be in the moment.

Photography was another passion of mine for many years. Again, it was all about getting out and finding something new and exciting to capture. A beautiful sunrise or sunset. Storm clouds rolling in. What kind of wildlife are you going to see. I remember the first time I came across a Ruddy Duck with it's baby blue colored beak, I thought that was so cool. The first male Wood Duck I saw in Oak Park with it's amazing colors. Male pheasants, although extremely beautiful, were a pain in my ass as they were very hard to photograph and took a ton of patience to get a good clean shot of. The first time I saw a moose and was able to get shot of it, I still remember that evening like it was yesterday. I was out and about in the Carpio area taking photo's of a storm. I had gotten some really good shots including some with a nice rainbow, and I came around this corner by a farm house and in the tree line I saw a big animal. At first I thought it might be a horse, but further investigation told me I had just found my first moose. I couldn't stop the car and roll down my window to get a shot quick enough. I had to calm myself a bit so as not to scare it away. One of my other favorite moments was taking in the scenic loop at Lake Darling and seeing something orange in the trees. I stopped and backed up, zoomed into the trees and saw an Oriole. Again, so excited, couldn't get the shot fast enough. My first time capturing lightning...gosh that was so cool. I was old fashioned in my approach to lightning, I enjoyed just sitting and taking shot after shot in hopes of capturing something cool. That first night I sat on my balcony and just kept shooting in hopes of getting a good lightning shot, and I was did indeed. I felt like Tom Hanks in Cast Away when he finally made fire.

Definitely a couple of passions in my life that I miss being able to do.

A passion that I found a bit too late in life was meteorology. Had I known earlier I definitely would have went to college for it. This one snuck up on me. I was scared of storms as a young man and hated them for much of early life because a Sunday storm meant no races at Nodak and that pissed me off. I don't know, sometime after I graduated college I just became fascinated by storms. I remember when I really felt it was night there was a storm that was brewing West of me and so I jumped in the car and headed West. I ended up chasing that storm was, gosh, I would say close to 100 miles. It was so thrilling and the clouds were so cool and the lightning and everything involved, just so much excitement, awe and wonder. I never did get a photo of a tornado, which bums out to this day, but I did see a few in my time. I remember being at my grandparents home and there was a tornado West of town out by Wal-Mart so I got in the car and drove out that way. I remember cresting a hill and getting my first view of the tornado, man, that was so cool. It had perfect structure to it. I drove out a bit further and parked in a lot a bit East of where the tornado had been and was lucky enough to see a few more funnel clouds form that day from the spot. I never stopped having a healthy fear and respect for storms, but for some reason I was able to push that aside to get out and see them first hand as much as possible. Oh yeah, the time I was watching from my balcony as the clouds above were just nasty looking and mean, and then off in the distance I saw a big dust cloud that came rolling by, probably no more than 200 feet in front of my balcony. That was pretty sweet. I would have loved to have studied storms for a living.

This brings me to my my greatest passion...hockey. UND hockey specifically. That is where it all started and that is where my hockey heart will always lie. I mean, the NHL is great, and Vegas is great and I love watching the games, and them winning the Cup last year was so very cool, especially since I was able to fully enjoy it, but UND hockey has always been and will always be my greatest passion. The season started tonight with an exhibition game against Manitoba, and, gosh, it was a great game. 10-0 final. Shots were something like 59-6. Granted, Manitoba is not a great team, but you still have to go out and make the plays in those games and the boys did that in spades. Jackson Blake, good lord, that guy is talented. Carolina Hurricanes fans, he might be a good one for you in a couple of years. Jayden Perron looked really good, especially for a freshmen in his first college game, again, looking at you Hurricanes fans. They came out fast and quick and never let up off the gas, which was nice to see as they have had a tendency in the past to start slow, and then ease up in those games, leading to some bad habits. I am trying to temper my excitement though as, again, just an exhibition game and the coming weeks will give us a much clearer vision of what this team is as we face some tough competition coming up. #3 Minnesota and then #1 Boston on their home ice. By the time conference play rolls around this team will be battle tested and we should know a lot more of where they truly are, but for tonight, I am going to be excited.

The message being, we all need passions in our life, things that make us truly happy and allow us to escape life for a while and just enjoy being alive. No stress. No anxiety. Just simply being in the moment and happy.

[hoveringaboveuranus]

A Meteor Exploded Over The Bering Sea With The Force Of 10 Atomic Bombs

Shooting stars are not uncommon to see over Earth. But, when one explodes over our planet it can cause a mighty boom, such as one did over t