Have you seen The Gamers: Dorkness Rising (2008)?
Yes
No
Haven’t even heard of this movie
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Have you seen The Gamers: Dorkness Rising (2008)?
Yes
No
Haven’t even heard of this movie
The Gamers: Darkness Rising
Have you seen this movie?
Yes!
I've seen parts of it
No, but it's on my watchlist
No, but I've seen gifsets of it
No, but I've heard of it
No
I don’t think I’ll ever get the image out of my head of Gen. Benjamin Lincoln falling asleep during dinner, at a meeting, while dictating a letter, or just mid-casual conversation or something thanks to his narcolepsy and his aides-de-camp just silently daring anyone in the room to say anything about it with a murderous look in their eyes. Everard Meade, William Jackson, Hodijah Baylies, and Nathan Rice - otherwise known as the Benjamin Lincoln Defense Squad(TM). [x]
AI spending looks like a bubble, but political capture and energy realities make backing down impossible.
You've probably been hearing that we're in an AI bubble. I think that's both loaded and reductive, and I'd like to take some time to help people understand the nuances of the situation we're currently in, because it's deep. To be clear, I am pro AI as a technology and I have an economic interest in its success (and for reasons I'll discuss, so should you), however there is a lot more going on that I don't agree with that I'd like to raise awareness of.
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AI capital investments are running far ahead of expected returns, and the pace of investment is accelerating. Analysts estimate AI-linked activity drove roughly 40–90% of H1-2025 U.S. GDP growth and ~75–80% of S&P 500 gains. If it wasn't for AI investments, it's likely the United States would be in a recession right now. According to Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital “the industry probably needs a revenue range that is closer to the $320 billion to $480 billion range, just to break even on the capex to be spent this year.” It sure sounds like a bubble, however thinking of it as just another bubble would be doing a disservice to the magnitude of the dynamics at play here. To understand why, we have to explore the psychology of the investors involved and the power circles they're operating in.
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The elites of Silicon Valley have cozied up to Donald Trump in a way that's unprecedented in the history of modern democracy. They've lined the pockets of his presidential library foundation, supported his white house renovations, paid for his inauguration and provided a financial lifeline for the Republican party. Between Elon Musk, David Sacks, Sriram Krishnan, Peter Thiel and his acolyte J.D. Vance, Trump has been sold the story that AI dominance is a strategic asset of vital importance to national security (there's probably also a strong ego component, America needs "the best AI, such a beautiful AI"). I'm not speculating, this is clearly written into the BBB and the language of multiple executive orders. These people think AI is the last thing humans will invent, and the first person to have it will reap massive rewards until the other powers can catch up. As such, they're willing to bend the typical rules of capitalism. Think of this as the early stages of a wartime economy.
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I'm going to say something that sounds a little crazy, but please bear with me: from a geopolitical perspective, what we're doing is a rational play, and depending on how valuable/powerful you expect AI to be and how hostile you expect a dominant China to be, possibly a near optimal one. If you're a traditional capitalist, it probably looks like a bad move to you regardless of your beliefs about AI; you're going to need to put those aside. This is not a traditional economic situation. We're in an arms race, and we're veering into a wartime economy, or at least that's how the powerful view it.
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The dynamic in the valley is that the people at the top know the game already, and they intend to exploit it to its fullest. They know that the president views AI victory as non-negotiable, and he can be relied on to channel an almost bottomless pool of capital into their efforts, through gangster tactics at first, then through a massive bailout architected by throwing the average taxpayer under the bus. This, combined with their view of AI as a step change moment is causing them to invest with reckless abandon. They're too big to fail, and they know it. I expect the US government will repeat its Intel play with at least one AI company, and there will probably be massive cash transfers in the form of inflated government AI automation and surveillance contracts. I wouldn't be surprised if Larry Ellison already has a contract signed in blood for this stashed away somewhere to whip out once he knows he can get away with implementing it. He's talked openly about building a surveillance state to intimidate the populace like a giant digital panopticon, so it's not just idle thoughts.
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Returning to the traditional capitalists, I'd like to note that they aren't wrong; this AI push is unsustainable (for us). I'm not sure how long we can run our economy hot and directed before the wheels come off, but my napkin estimate is between 5-10 years, though it's likely we'll lose the political will to keep pushing before that point if the AI transformation is underwhelming and we still have a democracy. To further support the traditional capitalists' position, if AI unwinds at that point having under-delivered, the economic damage will probably be an order of magnitude greater than if we had just let the bubble deflate naturally. This will be exacerbated by the favorable treatment the administration will make sure the Oligarchs receive; we will suffer, they will coast. Where does all this leave us? For one, you better hope and pray that AI delivers a magical transformation, because if it doesn't, the whole economy will collapse into brutal serfdom. When I say magic here, I mean it; because of the ~38T national debt bomb, a big boost is not enough. If AI doesn't completely transform our economy, the massive capital misallocation combined with the national debt is going to cause our economy to implode. If you think I'm being hyperbolic calling out a future of brutal serfdom. Keep in mind we basically have widespread serfdom now; a big chunk of Americans are in debt and living paycheck to paycheck. The only thing keeping it from being official is the lack of debtor's prison. Think about how much worse things will be with 10% inflation, 25% unemployment and the highest income inequality in history. This is fertile ground for a revolution, and historically the elites would have taken a step back to try and make the game seem less rigged as a self-preservation tactic, but this time is different. As far as I can tell, the tech oligarchs don't care because they're banking on their private island fortresses and an army of terminators to keep the populace in line.
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If you want to try and make some money on the dystopian future we're hurtling towards, any tech stock that is a target for stimulus or nationalization is going to be a safe bet. The government is practically manufacturing a ponzi scheme and the losers will be anyone who doesn't own stock. Google is the most likely target for nationalization given all the antitrust leverage against them and their strong tech portfolio. Oracle and OpenAI are also likely targets; I expect no resistance from Oracle, OpenAI is a little harder to read, but they're boxed in so I expect they'll probably end up cutting a deal eventually.
Update: I’m Gay
I’m still thirsty for Nathan Rice
The Gamers: Hands of Fate (2013) | "Lodge's Firefly Rant"
I shall spread the buttery justice of Therin over the toast of your iniquity! The succulent jam of light shall sweeten the sour dough of your evil ways! The creamer of light will dull the bitterness of your evil, unholy coffee taste! The spatula of purity shall scramble the eggs of your malfeasance!
Sir Osric the Chaste (The Gamers: Dorkness Rising)