NFL urea tender: A jaw-dropping L1 is being whispered
A number in the low $410s CFR is being quoted as the tender's L1.
That would be a generational low, some $500/t below what IPL paid in April.
The catch is that almost no supplier with actual shipping capacity appears able to offer at that price.
Rumoured lowest offers are about $418 CFR west coast and $412 CFR east coast.
Against IPL's 15 April award of about $935 WCI and $959 ECI, that is roughly $520–540/t lower.
China changed the rules twice in a matter of days.
Over the weekend, it lifted export restraints, making a sub-$450 number look possible.
On the morning of the tender, NDRC reimposed a floor of $500/t FOB for small granular and $510/t for large granular and automotive.
A $412–418 CFR offer works back to roughly $390–400 FOB.
That is about $100 below the new floor.
No Chinese producer can legally sell there.
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