#ni protocol

[thoughtlessarse]

Windsor Framework not yet acceptable, DUP MP warns

Gregory Campbell said the Windsor Framework was better than the contentious Northern Ireland Protocol, but it was still “not what we need to

A senior DUP MP has said he would advise party colleagues to oppose the new Brexit deal on Northern Ireland trade if further movement is not secured. Gregory Campbell said the Windsor Framework was better than the contentious Northern Ireland Protocol, but it was still “not what we need to see”. The DUP, which collapsed powersharing in Northern Ireland in protest at the protocol, has yet to come to a collective decision on whether to back the framework and return to devolution. Mr Campbell and other senior party figures, including Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley and Lord Dodds, have all expressed concern at the UK/EU agreement. Earlier this week, DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson established a consultation panel to inform its deliberations on the new deal. It will report back by the end of March.

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It would have been really weird if there had been no objections. The Windsor Framework has not been dismissed outright, and the opinions here are from the DUP bigwigs who would be expected to object on principle. Since the talks are ongoing, it means there are DUP members who are willing to accept the Windsor Framework, even the unpalatable bits.

Perhaps the bigwigs are speaking only to reassure their base that nothing will change, while secretly planning to accept the deal. Having deprived Northern Ireland of a functioning government for 10 months they might want to have one well before the next election in nine months.

[thoughtlessarse]

NI Protocol: Job not done for Sunak, who still needs Belfast's support

While the agreement between London and Brussels has been deemed a huge success, the British PM has only gotten over the first hurdle. Now it

It was a major victory for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who managed to do what his predecessors had failed so miserably to secure – a deal with Brussels. But the deal is not yet fully over the line, as Sunak still needs to appease and get the backing from some Conservative party members and Northern Ireland’s politicians – especially the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) members. Monday Recap On Monday, both the UK and the European Union sealed a deal to resolve their strained post-Brexit trade dispute over Northern Ireland. EU Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen traveled to England to iron out a deal with Sunak over the contentious Northern Ireland Protocol – with both sides agreeing they were starting “a new chapter” together. The agreement, known as the Windsor Framework, will allow goods to flow freely to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, end disputes that has jarred UK-EU relations, sparked the collapse of the Belfast-based regional government and shaken Northern Ireland’s decades-old peace process. Addressing the House of Commons on Monday evening, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the UK and the EU had made a “decisive breakthrough”.

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To be fair, his predecessor-but-one didn't want to secure a deal. It was too useful to him as a means to show how unreasonable the EU was being. It was, of course, purely to keep himself in office, like everything else he's ever undertaken and was never about the country; it was all about him.

[thoughtlessarse]

Tory Brexiters prepared to ‘move on’ and back Rishi Sunak’s Northern Ireland protocol deal

Mood among MPs turns to pragmatism but a whiff of rebellion remains, notably from the Boris Johnson camp

Key pro-Brexit Tory MPs suggested on Saturday night they would be prepared to back Rishi Sunak over any “sensible” deal on the Northern Ireland protocol as the prime minister battled to limit any rebellion by Conservative backbenchers. Several leading Conservatives, who were prominent in the 2016 leave campaign and who had strongly opposed Theresa May’s attempts to broker a solution, said what Sunak was prepared to put to parliament seemed to represent clear progress. They said the number of Tories who might vote against the deal, which could be announced to parliament as early as Monday, was likely to be limited to between 20 and 40 hardcore anti-EU MPs. Hardline Brexiters reject this, saying that when colleagues see the extent to which EU law will still apply in Northern Ireland, particularly to businesses sending goods to other parts of the UK, many more will oppose it. Former Brexit secretary David Davis, who resigned from the cabinet over May’s Brexit deal, told the Observer that he had not seen details of Sunak’s agreement yet but made clear he did not expect to oppose it: “My instinct is not to vote against it if it looks anything like reasonable.” Davis said Sunak was attempting to undo the damage that, in his view, was done by Theresa May when she “conceded full alignment of north and south (of Ireland)”. He added: “What he [Sunak] is doing is not a complete reversal of the damage done but it is a significant reversal.”

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Only 20 to 40 hardcore Tory MPs will vote against. I assume Sunak threatened and election when he met MPs in private.

Hardline Brexiteers haven't even seen the deal they're opposing. They have no idea of the extent EU law will still apply in Northern Ireland.

[thoughtlessarse]

Health and economy ranked as bigger concerns than Protocol for Northern Ireland's voters

Talks have intensified to find a resolution to the Protocol dispute and get parliament functioning again in the North.

Most voters in Northern Ireland do not consider the Protocol among their highest policy concerns when compared to other policy issues, a new opinion poll has found. According to opinion polling conducted by LucidTalk on behalf of researchers at Queen’s University Belfast, the issue of top concern to most respondents (42%) among the six listed is the health service followed by the economy (31%). Significant gender differences were found with female voters much more likely to rank the Protocol as their least important issue than men.  However, in an election to the Northern Ireland Assembly, 82% of people said a candidate’s position on the Protocol would be important for them.  It comes as talks intensify to try reach a deal on the border issue. The UK Government and the European Union are still negotiating changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol, the arrangements aimed at preventing a hard border on the island of Ireland.  British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated that he would put any new deal to MPs House of Commons for a chance to express their views, risking a showdown with Eurosceptics on the Tory benches. [...] When it comes to handling Northern Ireland’s interests over the Protocol, the UK government is the most distrusted actor with 85% viewing it with distrust. The Irish Government is distrusted by 46% and the most trusted actor is the business community at 56% trust. Party backing There are differences among unionists on the issue. 73% of TUV supporters, 55% of DUP supporters and 19% of UUP supporters rank the Protocol as the issue of most concern to them. In contrast, a clear majority of Alliance (75%) and SDLP (76%) and 65% of Sinn Féin supporters rank the Protocol as the issue of least concern to them of the six listed.

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[thoughtlessarse]

Unionist alarm amidst British skullduggery | The Irish Post

Apprehension motivates most unionist thinking on the Northern Ireland Protocol, the biggest fear ...

How is Northern Ireland to cope with British ambivalence on the Union? We have seen again how internal Tory party political wrangling over Brexit takes little account of us. When your lover’s concern for your happiness begins to wane you suspect something is going on. The deep fear of unionists in Northern Ireland is that Ireland is moving inexorably towards unification, probably some time in the 2030s, and that Britain is perfectly content with that. More, they fear that Britain could deftly inch us incrementally towards unification. This fear is what motivates much of the unionist objection to the Northern Ireland Protocol of the Brexit Withdrawal deal, a treaty on trade that most people would have little interest in so long as they could still get their courgettes and lactose free milk, their fags and their beer. Ostensibly the protocol was devised to facilitate trade between Northern Ireland and Britain, not to make any actual constitutional change in the character of the Union itself. [...] When the Supreme Court last month ruled that the protocol is legal, that the Act of Union has been legally changed, many argued that this killed off the basis of unionist objections to the protocol. In fact, some unionists saw it as confirming their fear. Another step had indeed been taken towards unity. The Act of Union had been modified by legislation. This, they felt, had been done deviously and without due reference to them. A union, after all, is a partnership. Both parties to it should agree modifications if there are to be any.

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They are right to be suspicious. The British government would love to be shot of Northern Ireland; it costs a lot of money. Unfortunately, the actions of successive governments have kind of painted the UK into a corner, starting with the border on the Island of Ireland that was never meant to be permanent right up to brexit where Northern Ireland didn't occur to the morons braying for it.

The irony is that the DUP was braying for it too. They even propped up May as she wrestled with the issue. And that got them nothing but £1B which is not enough to buy the security they want.

“A union, after all, is a partnership. Both parties to it should agree modifications if there are to be any.” If that were true then either Scotland or Northern Ireland could have prevented brexit because both voted against it. Unfortunately, in an abusive relationship your views don't matter.

[thoughtlessarse]

Cabinet tensions and Brexiteer backlash as Rishi Sunak seeks to seal Northern Ireland deal

Hopes that Rishi Sunak could announce a deal as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday have faded amid a backlash from Conservative arch-Brexiteers

Ministers were on Monday engaged in a flurry of multi-level diplomacy with the EU, Conservative Brexiteers and unionists in Northern Ireland as they try to get a deal on post-Brexit trade in the region over the line this week. Hopes that Rishi Sunak could announce a deal as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday have faded amid a backlash from Conservative arch-Brexiteers and some in the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). But i understands the Prime Minister still hopes he may be able to seal an agreement with the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol by Thursday. Mr Sunak, his ministers and officials have begun the week with a charm offensive aimed at striking an agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol that does not trigger a backlash that could leave it dead on arrival. Downing Street is in “close contact” with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which must be sufficiently satisfied to end their boycott of Stormont powersharing over the Protocol – or the deal will be branded a failure and also trigger a backlash from dozens of Tory MPs in the European Research Group (ERG). Plotting a way through is however proving tricky as the EU will not rewrite the Protocol and will not back down from the European Court of Justice (ECJ) remaining the ultimate arbiter on disputes involving Brussels law in Northern Ireland.

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Sunak already has what he needs to push the deal through, at least within the Tory Party; call their bluff, threaten an election. It would undoubtedly be the end of the Tories 12 year grip on power if he did so. Lots of Tory MPs, mostly the new “red wall” intake of 2019, would lose their seats, but a lot of top Tories would also lose theirs.

[thoughtlessarse]

DUP dampens hopes of supporting a Protocol deal (but Rishi Sunak may push on anyway)

Senior DUP MP Sammy Wilson said: “We are British and we expect to be governed by British law, not Brussels law.”

The DUP is attempting to dampen hopes that it will support any deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol, despite Downing Street raising hopes of an imminent announcement of a deal.  Downing Street has said talks are ongoing to reach an agreement with the European Union aimed at breaking the impasse over the contentious post-Brexit trading arrangements. A spokesperson denied reports that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been forced to delay an announcement – widely expected as early as this week – amid backlash from senior Tories and the DUP.  UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will discuss the Protocol with European Commission vice president Maros Sefcovic this afternoon. They will be joined by Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris amid expectations both sides are inching closer to a deal. Unionists politicians are seeking changes to the trading arrangements, with the DUP blocking the operation of the Stormont Assembly as part of its opposition to the Protocol. 

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I'd have been surprised if the DUP had meekly accepted the deal. Unfortunately, they don't have a David Trimble to drag them kicking and screaming across the line as he did for the GFA.

[thoughtlessarse]

Rishi Sunak warned more than 100 Tory MPs could rebel over NI protocol deal

PM’s efforts at breaking Brexit deadlock could be scuppered by hardliners in his party as Boris Johnson urges tougher stance

Rishi Sunak has been warned that more than 100 Tory MPs could rebel over a deal with the EU to help break the post-Brexit deadlock in Northern Ireland, as Boris Johnson launched a major intervention calling for him to take a tougher line with Brussels. Pressure is growing on the prime minister as government sources said tense talks in Downing Street over the weekend on overhauling the Northern Ireland protocol were yet to yield a breakthrough. They cautioned that the hoped-for timetable of an agreement being announced on Monday and a Commons vote on Tuesday was at risk of slipping. One insider said, “We’re ready to go,” but claimed that nervousness about opposition by the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) and Tory backbenchers was to blame for the hold-up.

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There are 356 Tory MPs. Even if 150 of them vote against Sunak's revision of the Northern Ireland Protocol and the 8 DUP MPs join them, there are still 206 Tory MPs, 195 Labour MPs, and 45 SNP MPs who would vote for it.