Golf Preview & Picks - The Open
THE OPEN
Class Will Tell - A glance at Birkdale’s Open Roll of Honour shows it takes a top player to win here. Since the World Rankings were first introduced, all winners at Birkdale were ranked in the Top 25 and the pre-rankings winners – Messrs Thomson, Palmer, Trevino, Miller and Watson - would have been near the top of any such table. Throw in the fact that all nine Birkdale winners had previously finished in the top-six at earlier Opens and we have an idea of what it takes to win here. So, where to start our search for a winner? Anyone ranked 15th in the world who has previous Open finishes of 8th, 2nd, 3rd and 5th must be high on any shortlist and Adam Scott, who warmed up with a reasonable performance at Dundonald last weekend, fits the bill. Maybe he should have won the Claret Jug by now and many will view his failure to do so as a negative but I prefer to look at it as proof that this is a man who knows his way round a links course and at 30/1 with BoyleSports and Sporting Bet, he is one to back. Among those who feature near the top of the World Rankings and the betting markets, there are question marks over many but the case for backing Hideki Matsuyama looks compelling. He was in top form in Ireland recently and was ultra-impressive at Erin Hills in the last major. He does have a previous top-six finish in The Open and of the big names - Spieth apart - he looks to have more going for him than others. He is 22/1 with most firms which looks more appealing than many of those at shorter prices. If you want to invest at longer prices, why not take William Hill’s 100/1 about the World No 19? With so many top players being of similar ability with putter in hand, approach play will be at a premium this week and Francesco Molinari ranks 3rd on the PGA Tour when playing from fairway (or rough) to green. He just happens to also rank 3rd in driving accuracy and that will surely stand him in good stead if the wind blows. A 9th and a 15th place in recent Opens show that he has the links game and he rarely misses a cut when it comes to the big one so represents excellent each way value. With a top-ten finish last year, two top-fives in his last four starts and at 150/1 with Bet Victor, Ladbrokes and Coral, many seem to underestimate the chances of Bill Haas. He is solid on Tour, looks to have no real weakness in his game and is standout each way value. He can be backed at 60/1 with Sky Bet to be top-American, which looks seriously tempting. Finally, Coral and Ladbrokes both offer a market for the top-debutant and Canadian Adam Hadwin looks good at 11/1.
The Green Reader
BIRKDALE - THE KNOWLEDGE The 146th Open will test the players from the first hole (a long hard par-4) to the 72nd (a long hard par-4...).
Birkdale is a big beast, heavily-bunkered, narrow and protected by deep, wiry rough. That said, the fairways are fairly flat, not rolling and rumpled so they are receptive and fair. Birkdale - of all The Open venues - requires least luck to score well. But the weather forecast is mixed - as British as The Open itself - and players will hope for good fortune with their tee times, avoiding potential morning showers or afternoon squalls, whenever they come along.
The great course is unlikely to be humiliated. The rough has been grown in a little and practise rounds show many players using irons on even the longest holes. Mickelson has said he won't even carry a driver...
tour the course here
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