#overbooking

[phoenixyfriend]

Ko-fi prompt from @thatclichedwriter:

If possible, could you explain why airline overbooking happens and how it “works”?

The answer to this one is actually pretty simple, and the same reason that hotel chains overbook.

The short answer is that in order to maximize profits, every seat needs to be full, and on average, there will be a handful of passengers cancelling at the last moment, so overbooking leads to Just Barely filling every seat after cancellations, most of the time.

Let's play with an example!

Our example flight is 100 seats. It goes from Houston to Pittsburg, and takes just under three hours. This is a flight that goes between two cities in the same country, and is comparatively cheap, in relation to international or intercontinental flights.

It is much more likely to be a flight taken for business purposes than for vacation, especially if it's not during a holiday season where someone might be visiting family in another city.

Version 1: The airline books 100 seats. Of those 100 seats, 5 cancel at the last moment due to a change in the business obligation, or an emergency at home. The airline is now flying 95 seats of the 100, leaving 5 seats empty. If each seat is $300 on average, then they have lost out on $1,500 of revenue. (If there's a cancellation fee, then they've lost out on less, but they've still lost money.)

Version 2: The airline books 110 seats. As in the first version, 5 cancel at the last moment. The airline still has 105 bookings, which is 5 more seats than the plane has. They need to either refund or reschedule the flights for 5 passengers in order to take off. They offer travel credit, possibly a hotel, in exchange for several passengers to delay to a less full flight. The airline loses money, but probably less than the $1,500 they would have lost if they'd had 5 empty seats, instead of 5 doubled ones. Depending on how willing customers are to compromise for a new flight, slightly overbooking is better than slightly underbooking.

Version 3: The airline books 105 seats. 5 cancel at the last moment. When the plane takes off, all 100 seats are full, and the airline has not lost any revenue to empty or overbooked flights.

This whole process is pretty complex, and varies based on the most common cause for travel (Sacramento to Fort Worth is going to have a very different set of customers than New York to Athens), the time of year, the time of week, the airline's popularity, and so on.

The causes of cancellations can vary or come in waves, say, a flu epidemic at a university causing a bunch of students to stay at the dorms for Thanksgiving, forcing half-full flights for a few days in November, which would be unexpected and difficult to plan for when most of the flights around a holiday are more than likely booked far in advance, due to the cost.

There are a lot of people on the internet that have done much longer, more math-heavy examples of this entire process. It's a science of its own, though I'd hesitate to call it an art.

But you came here for "explain it to me like I'm five" explanations, and I'm hoping I've managed to fulfill that!

(Prompt me on ko-fi!)

[pollonegro666]

2022/12/08 Mi amiguita quería patinar en la pista de hielo pero el tiempo de espera era muchísimo. También quisimos bajar por el tobogán pero no teníamos la altura mínima.

My girlfriend wanted to skate on the ice rink but the waiting time was too long. We also wanted to go down the slide but we did not have the minimum height.

Google translation into Italian: La mia ragazza voleva pattinare sulla pista di pattinaggio ma il tempo di attesa era troppo lungo. Volevamo anche scendere dallo scivolo ma non avevamo l'altezza minima.

Google Translation into Portuguese: Minha namorada queria patinar na pista de gelo, mas o tempo de espera era muito longo. Também queríamos descer o escorregador mas não tínhamos a altura mínima.

Google Translation into French: Ma copine voulait patiner sur la patinoire mais le temps d'attente était trop long. Nous voulions aussi descendre le toboggan mais nous n'avions pas la hauteur minimale.

Google Translation into Arabic: أرادت صديقتي التزلج على حلبة التزلج لكن وقت الانتظار كان طويلاً للغاية. أردنا أيضًا النزول أسفل الشريحة ولكن لم يكن لدينا الحد الأدنى للارتفاع.

Google Translation into German: Meine Freundin wollte auf der Eisbahn Schlittschuhlaufen, aber die Wartezeit war zu lang. Wir wollten auch die Rutsche hinunter, aber wir hatten nicht die Mindesthöhe.

Google Translation into Albanisch: E dashura ime donte të bënte patinazh në shesh patinazhi, por koha e pritjes ishte shumë e gjatë. Ne donim të zbrisnim edhe rrëshqitjen, por nuk kishim lartësinë minimale.

Google Translation into Armenian: Ընկերուհիս ցանկանում էր սահադաշտում սահել, բայց սպասման ժամանակը շատ երկար էր: Մենք էլ էինք ուզում իջնել սլայդով, բայց նվազագույն բարձրությունը չունեինք։

Google Translation into Bulgarian: Приятелката ми искаше да кара кънки на ледената пързалка, но времето за чакане беше твърде дълго. Искахме и ние да се спуснем по пързалката, но нямахме минималната височина.

Google Translation into Czech: Moje přítelkyně chtěla bruslit na kluzišti, ale čekací doba byla příliš dlouhá. Chtěli jsme sjet i skluzavku, ale neměli jsme minimální výšku.

Google Translation into Slovak: Moja priateľka sa chcela korčuľovať na ľadovej ploche, ale čakacia doba bola príliš dlhá. Chceli sme ísť aj po šmykľavke, ale nemali sme minimálnu výšku.

Google Translation into Slovenian: Moja punca je želela drsati na drsališču, a je bila čakalna doba predolga. Želeli smo se spustiti tudi po toboganu, a nismo imeli minimalne višine.

Google Translation into Estonian: Mu tüdruksõber tahtis jäähalli uisutada, kuid ooteaeg oli liiga pikk. Tahtsime ka liumäest alla minna, aga meil polnud minimaalset kõrgust.

Google Translation into Suomi: Tyttöystäväni halusi luistella jäähallilla, mutta odotusaika oli liian pitkä. Halusimme myös laskeutua liukumäestä alas, mutta meillä ei ollut vähimmäiskorkeutta.

Google Translation into Greek: Η κοπέλα μου ήθελε να κάνει πατινάζ στο παγοδρόμιο, αλλά ο χρόνος αναμονής ήταν πολύ μεγάλος. Θέλαμε να κατεβούμε και την τσουλήθρα, αλλά δεν είχαμε το ελάχιστο ύψος.

Google Translation into Dutch: Mijn vriendin wilde schaatsen op de ijsbaan maar de wachttijd was te lang. We wilden ook van de glijbaan af, maar we hadden niet de minimale hoogte.

Google Translation into Norwegian: Kjæresten min ville gå på skøyter på skøytebanen, men ventetiden var for lang. Vi ville også ned sklien, men vi hadde ikke minimumshøyden.

Google Translation into Polish: Moja dziewczyna chciała jeździć na łyżwach na lodowisku, ale czas oczekiwania był zbyt długi. Chcieliśmy też zjechać na zjeżdżalnię, ale nie mieliśmy minimalnej wysokości.

Google Translation into Romanian: Prietena mea a vrut să patineze la patinoar, dar timpul de așteptare a fost prea lung. Am vrut să coborâm și pe tobogan, dar nu aveam înălțimea minimă.

Google Translation into Russian: Моя девушка хотела покататься на коньках на катке, но время ожидания было слишком долгим. Мы тоже хотели спуститься с горки, но у нас не было минимальной высоты.

Google Translation into Serbian: Моја девојка је хтела да клиза на клизалишту, али је време чекања било предуго. Хтели смо и да се спустимо низ тобоган, али нисмо имали минималну висину.

Google Translation into Swedish: Min flickvän ville åka skridskor på ishallen men väntetiden var för lång. Vi ville också gå ner för rutschkanan, men vi hade inte den minsta höjden.

Google Translation into Turkish: Kız arkadaşım buz pateni pistinde kaymak istedi ama bekleme süresi çok uzundu. Biz de kaydıraktan aşağı inmek istedik ama minimum yüksekliğe sahip değildik.

Google Translation into Ukrainian: Моя дівчина хотіла покататися на ковзанах, але довго чекала. Ми теж хотіли спуститися з гірки, але не вистачило мінімальної висоти.

Google Translation into Bengali: আমার বান্ধবী বরফের রিঙ্কে স্কেট করতে চেয়েছিল কিন্তু অপেক্ষার সময়টি খুব দীর্ঘ ছিল। আমরা স্লাইড থেকে নিচে যেতে চেয়েছিলাম, কিন্তু আমাদের ন্যূনতম উচ্চতা ছিল না।

Google Translation into Chinese: 我的女朋友想去溜冰场滑冰，但等待的时间太长了。 我们也想从滑梯上下去，但是我们没有最低高度。

Google Translation into Korean: 여자친구가 스케이트장에서 스케이트를 타고 싶어했는데 대기시간이 너무 길었어요. 우리도 슬라이드를 타고 내려가고 싶었지만 최소 높이가 없었습니다.

Google Translation into Hebrew: חברה שלי רצתה להחליק במשטח החלקה על הקרח אבל זמן ההמתנה היה ארוך מדי. רצינו גם לרדת במגלשה, אבל לא היה לנו את הגובה המינימלי.

Google Translation into Hindi: मेरी प्रेमिका आइस रिंक पर स्केटिंग करना चाहती थी लेकिन प्रतीक्षा का समय बहुत लंबा था। हम भी स्लाइड से नीचे जाना चाहते थे, लेकिन हमारे पास न्यूनतम ऊंचाई नहीं थी।

Google Translation into Indonesian: Pacar saya ingin berseluncur di gelanggang es tetapi waktu tunggunya terlalu lama. Kami juga ingin turun perosotan, tetapi kami tidak memiliki ketinggian minimum.

Google Translation into Japanese: 私のガールフレンドはアイスリンクでスケートをしたかったのですが、待ち時間が長すぎました。 私たちも滑り台を降りたかったのですが、最低限の高さがありませんでした。

Google Translation into Malay: Teman wanita saya ingin meluncur di gelanggang ais tetapi masa menunggu terlalu lama. Kami juga mahu turun gelongsor, tetapi kami tidak mempunyai ketinggian minimum.

Google Translation into Panjabi: ਮੇਰੀ ਪ੍ਰੇਮਿਕਾ ਆਈਸ ਰਿੰਕ 'ਤੇ ਸਕੇਟ ਕਰਨਾ ਚਾਹੁੰਦੀ ਸੀ ਪਰ ਉਡੀਕ ਦਾ ਸਮਾਂ ਬਹੁਤ ਲੰਬਾ ਸੀ. ਅਸੀਂ ਸਲਾਈਡ ਤੋਂ ਹੇਠਾਂ ਜਾਣਾ ਵੀ ਚਾਹੁੰਦੇ ਸੀ, ਪਰ ਸਾਡੇ ਕੋਲ ਘੱਟੋ-ਘੱਟ ਉਚਾਈ ਨਹੀਂ ਸੀ।

Google Translation into Pashtun: زما ملګرې غوښتل چې د آیس رینک کې سکیټ وکړي مګر د انتظار وخت ډیر اوږد و. موږ هم غوښتل چې سلایډ ته لاړ شو، مګر موږ لږترلږه لوړوالی نه درلود.

Google Translation into Persian: دوست دخترم می خواست در پیست یخ اسکیت کند اما زمان انتظار خیلی طولانی بود. ما هم می خواستیم از سرسره پایین برویم اما حداقل ارتفاع را نداشتیم.

Google Translation into Tagalog: Gusto ng aking kasintahan na mag-skate sa ice rink ngunit ang oras ng paghihintay ay masyadong mahaba. Gusto rin naming bumaba sa slide, ngunit wala kaming pinakamababang taas.

Google Translation into Thai: แฟนของฉันต้องการเล่นสเก็ตที่ลานสเก็ตน้ำแข็ง แต่เวลารอนานเกินไป เราอยากลงไปบนสไลเดอร์ด้วย แต่เราไม่มีความสูงขั้นต่ำ

Google Translation into Urdu: میری گرل فرینڈ آئس رنک پر سکیٹنگ کرنا چاہتی تھی لیکن انتظار کا وقت بہت لمبا تھا۔ ہم بھی سلائیڈ سے نیچے جانا چاہتے تھے، لیکن ہمارے پاس کم از کم اونچائی نہیں تھی۔

[odinsblog]

United Airlines overbooked flight 3411 and decided to assault and forcibly remove paying customers off the plane. This is how they did it. 

After calling the man belligerent and disruptive, United CEO, Oscar Munoz, issued a Pepsi-like apology for “re-accommodating” David Dao, the Asian American passenger, reportedly a doctor who said he didn’t want to leave because he was on his way to appointments with patients.

[notmyprclient]

The CEO of United has an astonishingly bad "apology" for the overbooking fiasco

"I apologize for having to re-accommodate these customers," Oscar Munoz says in a Twitter statement.

Dragging a passenger off your plane and bloodying him in the process makes United’s leggings fiasco seem small in comparison, doesn’t it? Releasing this non-apology is icing on the cake!

[whatareyoureallyafraidof]

As I see it -- and this is just me thinking out loud here -- is if no one took the offer of $800 to get off the plane, maybe a United employee -- at the gate, in the cockpit, somewhere -- might have tried getting on the phone to someone higher up, and asking permission to offer more.

I mean, I get it, apparently the ticket says the airline has the right to remove passengers due to overbooking, but offering a few dollars more to four passengers versus the potential loss they face now, seems like an easy trade to make.

Of course, that's assuming anybody could think things through before a passenger gets dragged off a plane.

[ferranhumor]

Overbooking

[mrtatanka]

Overwatch en estos momentos...

[1mevasive]

It should be illegal for flights, hotels, and restaurants to overbook.

What do you mean someone checked into my room????