Statistically Based Observation Increases Confidence in Albanian Elections
Photo: Democracy International and the Coalition of Domestic Observers' Albania Election Data platform uses innovative technologies to enhance transparency and evidence-based decision-making.
By Michael Baldassaro, Director, Innovation and Program Director, Albania
Tirana, Albania – With support from USAID, Democracy International partnered with the Coalition of Domestic Observers (CDO), a network of 30 Albanian civil society groups, to undertake a citizen observation mission for the June 2017 Albanian Assembly Elections. DI and CDO conducted a citizen election observation exercise to promote public confidence in the electoral process, detect and deter voter fraud, and provide recommendations to improve the process in the future. Specifically, DI and CDO applied a statistically based observation (SBO) methodology, which combines quantitative and qualitative assessment techniques to conduct a rapid, systematic and comprehensive evaluation of the integrity of the election process.
With DI’s assistance, CDO recruited, trained and deployed 1,923 citizen election observers, including 61 long-term observers (LTOs) responsible for monitoring the political, electoral and security context in each municipality; 1,082 SBO observers, deployed to a random, representative and statistical sound sample of 541 polling stations; 180 observers charged with monitoring electoral administration in all 90 Election Administration Zones; 180 counting observers tasked with monitoring the vote tallying process at each of the 90 counting centers; and more than 400 mobile observers monitoring hotspots and following up on electoral incidents. In total, 63% of observers were under the age of 30 and more than 600 observers were female.
In advance of the elections, CDO published three reports detailing its findings and analysis of the pre-election process. On Election Day, CDO established a Central Data Center in Tirana staffed by 80 data clerks responsible for collecting SBO reports from sample polling stations. DI assisted CDO in performing data analysis and issuing three statements using SBO findings to assess the integrity of the opening, voting and closing processes. On the day after the election, CDO issued two statements on the counting process as well as a preliminary election statement detailing its key SBO findings and analysis. For each report and statement issued, CDO held a press conference that was broadcast on live TV and live-streamed on its Facebook page.
Based on its SBO findings, CDO concluded that the election process was generally credible, peaceful and well organized. Among its key findings, CDO found that 95.6% of polling stations opened within a half hour of the official opening time; 99.2% of polling stations were equipped with all necessary voting materials; voter secrecy was guaranteed in 98.7% of stations; and campaigning aimed at influencing voters occurred in just 3.1% of stations. Voters were observed taking photos of their marked ballots in 3.7% of stations. Following the close of polls, CDO issued a voter turnout projection of 46.85% with a 5 percent margin of error; the official voter turnout figure later provided by the election commission was 46.79%.
DI and CDO made extensive use of novel and innovative applications of technology throughout the SBO mission. To manage SBO findings, CDO used a free cloud-based system called Ona developed by the Columbia University Sustainable Engineering Lab. Ona enabled CDO to quickly analyze SBO data and generate maps and graphs highlighting SBO findings on Election Day. To collect SBO findings, CDO used Open Data Kit (ODK) Collect, a free, open-source smartphone data collection application developed by the University of Washington. Approximately 20 percent of CDO observers submitted reports, photos and GPS coordinates from sample polling stations using the ODK Collect app as part of a successful pilot test exercise.
During the elections, DI and CDO used myriad low-to-no-cost technology tools to manage internal and external communications, including using Facebook Messenger video chat to train long-term observers, greatly reducing the amount of time and cost associated with in-person training activities; creating a WhatsApp group to ensure leadership and staff were on the same page at all times; utilizing a mobile messaging service called Telerivet to quickly and efficiently provide observers with critical updates and respond to last-minute questions in the run-up to Election Day; and leveraging a social media management platform called Hootsuite to handle communications with media and citizens on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.
The use of free, open-source and low-cost software-as-a-service (SaaS) technology improved the efficiency of the SBO mission while providing significant cost savings. By extensively leveraging open source and SaaS solutions, the total cost for the innovative technology applied was just a few hundred dollars. Moreover, all the technology used is reusable for future CDO election observation activities. Based on the success of the pilot, CDO plans to expand the use of the free ODK Collect to enable all observers to report via smartphone in future election observation missions. As an in-kind contribution to the open source community, CDO translated the ODK Collect app into Albanian, enabling all domestic groups to use the smartphone app.
In addition to the SBO mission, DI and CDO launched Albania Election Data, an initiative to collect, open, visualize and analyze election data on an ongoing basis. Albania Election Data aims to strengthen Albanian democracy through greater transparency and accountability by 1) creating a centralized hub of election-related data and maps that facilitate evidence-based, data-driven decision-making to improve the electoral process; 2) presenting information in a highly accessible way so that stakeholders can measure progress and identify trends from one election cycle to the next; and 3) providing a meaningful lens through which electoral developments and election observation findings can be contextualized and understood.
Currently, the Albanian Central Election Commission (CEC) makes data available in locked or protected formats, making it difficult to analyze the data. In response, DI and CDO launched the Albania Election Data initiative to make data more accessible to the public. As a first step, DI and CDO opened and created dozens of mapping visualizations using official data from the 2013 and 2015 elections. CDO will update the platform to include official data from the 2017 elections when it is made available on the CEC website. The platform can be accessed at http://www.tedhenat.al and all data and maps used to create the visualizations are available for download in open, machine-readable formats.