What a derby!? One of the best in recent memory. A close race with favorites really running well. For those of you that missed it, American Pharaoh passed Dortmund and Firing Line down the stretch to win it. Firing Line tried to battle back but had to settle for 2nd. Dortmund held on for 3rd as Frosted was closing fast but could only manage 4th place.
Some key takeaways from the derby: as I watched it (at a Knights of Columbus watch party), I commented on the slow early fractions of the race. Most people don’t pay attention to those little numbers that pop up in the corner during the race, but I do. They were not running that fast early. This means true closers really didn’t have a chance in the race because the leaders would not tire. It also helps that a lot of the lead horses were actually talented and not just rabbits. The derby taught me that it seems this years class of 3 year olds will run a smart race and not get caught up in a speed battle. I look for this to repeat, and I will discount the closers slightly going forward.
The best horses being near the lead means they will usually get great trips almost every race. I don’t see American Pharaoh, Dortmund, or Firing Line really falling off in the Preakness. Maybe fatigue will play a role because of the short 2 week layoff, but all the top horses are dealing with the same quick turnaround. I also rewatched the last 8 Preaknesses, and there is a definite trend that the fractions are reasonable or slow in the beginning and early speed ends up dueling the stalkers. True closers don’t play a factor in the end (you have to go back to 2007 and Curlin to see a closer win), which sounds a lot like what happened in the derby to me. I think we are set for a very similar battle. People can talk up the added pace in this race compared to this year’s derby or make a big deal about AP and Dortmund needing to run fast early because of inside posts, but I trust the history of this race and this class of 3 year olds. Do not be scared of front-running horses.
In my original Preakness draft, it seemed like a lot of the top contenders from the derby would be shipping up to Pimlico; however, Todd Pletcher eventually decided to stick with his M.O. and skip the Preakness with all his horses. This leaves a MUCH weaker field than the derby. It is really a shame that he made this move. It weakens the Preakness, and it will be very hard for AP to win the triple crown if he does win the Preakness with about 8 very talented fresh horses waiting for him at Belmont Park. Horse racing really needs to push the Preakness back a week and the Belmont back 2 weeks. This would attract more of the top horses to the Preakness, and it would make for better story lines in the Belmont because people would become more familiar with the contenders. Taking time off to rest for the Belmont is a cowardly move by Pletcher, but I can understand it with the current format that allows for little rest.
With that being said, let’s look at the (MUCH smaller) field.
The returning derby favorites:
1 - American Pharaoh (4-5) -The derby winner deserves to be the favorite, and I even think being the odds on favorite is justified. By all accounts he is training well, and he simply looks to be the best horse this year. He definitely would have preferred an outside post, so he could tuck in just off the lead. The rail position will force him to use a little bit of early speed to keep from being squeezed or fall a little further back than usual. I think what we saw in the derby is exactly what he is. A good stalking horse that will be a huge factor in the race. Obviously needs to be considered in all bets, but just because you think he will win doesn’t make betting him to win a good value bet. I think a bet on him to PLACE or SHOW may actually offer more value as those bets can often be overlooked on odds on favorites and actually end up paying a similar price as the win bet with less risk (California Chrome’s win and place bets paid the exact same last year). I highly suggest that bet (AP to place and/or show) for people looking to root for a triple crown and make a potentially decent value bet. It won’t payout very much at all, but it should win a very good percent of the time.
8 - Firing Line (4-1) - This horse loves to come in 2nd. Like I said in the derby primer, there is just no X-factor here. He has lost duels now with Dortmund and AP. There were aspects of his stretch performance in the derby that I liked and some I really didn’t. It seemed like the jockey really had to battle him to stay near the rail. He wanted to drift out slightly, but on the flip side I loved the heart to take a second shot at AP once he was initially passed. The really big concern/question mark is that this horse didn’t change leads down the stretch in the derby. Normally, horses change their leg that is leading their stride as they come down the stretch, which gives them a little added kick. This could explain why he went a little wide and why he just couldn’t beat AP down the stretch. Conversely, I love how AP handles himself down the stretch in every race. I really put FL and Dortmund on almost exactly an equal level. They will be near the front early and with a reasonable pace can win the race but probably a tick below AP in terms of quality. Fun fact: this horse is owned by the former CEO of Talbots clothing.
2 - Dortmund (7-2) - I always think his red, white and blue silks make the jockey look like Captain America on his back, but American Pharaoh was the better America on derby day. The 2nd position will force a quick start, but could allow him to box in AP. He hopes the slightly shorter Preakness will help the early speed a bit more, and maybe he can recover faster than the others. It was said he was a little sick the week before the derby. So maybe his health was just below 100% in that race and will be a notch better at Pimlico. AP really took the whip on the stretch to get the win, so maybe Dortmund and Firing Line bounce back a little quicker from slightly easier rides. It is a bit weird that Baffert also trains this horse, and he could essentially block himself from a shot at the triple crown if Dortmund beats AP. I like him slightly better than Firing Line based on overall past performance, improving health, and trainer experience. If there is a horse in the field that can beat AP, it’s this horse.
What you see is what you get from the favorites. Expect similar races as the derby for each of them, and with the smaller field and the fact they like to be close to the lead, they all should get fairly good trips around Old Hilltop. They also all run styles that have won the race in the recent past. Because they are now the known quantities, don’t expect a big payday at all, but they are all very solid.
Other derby returners:
4 - Danzig Moon (15-1) - I thought he would stay off the pace a little more in the derby. Instead he rode around in about 5th and pretty much stayed there the whole race. No real kick but no real fade either. Maybe in the Preakness he will have a little bit more run at the end if the pace is a little quicker. If the pace is slow like the derby, then I could see a similar race unfolding, but in either case I don’t see him getting all the way to the front and winning it. He really is probably the closest thing to a closer with some quality in the race, so there is a high chance he is hanging around in the 3rd or 4th position like Frosted did in the derby.
3 - Mr. Z (20-1) - A late addition to the race after he was sold to new owners right before the entry cutoff. This horse should not be in this race in my opinion. His past owners trotted (no pun intended, ok pun maybe a little intended) him out way too often. They finally decided to NOT run him in the Preakness against the trainer’s suggestion, but sold him to an owner that then decided to agree with trainer. This will be his 6th race of the year and 14th overall. To put that in perspective, some horses only have 4 or 5 races total. It’s also funny that he is named after his past owner (Zayat), and his owner just sold him. He finished 13th in the derby, and really didn’t ever play a factor after a bad trip. There are a lot of better horses in the race to waste my money on. I think he will be a good G3 stakes type horse for a while in the future but G1 races like these are a little over his head. Expect him to stay near the front for more airtime and fade in the final turn.
New shooters:
7 - Divining Rod (12-1) - An interesting entry in the race because this is a new speed horse. He could potentially be in the mix with the favorites with a decent start, but I don’t think he’s good enough to hang for the whole race. He’ll probably be gobbled up down the stretch, especially if he goes all the way to the lead. However, if he does push Firing Line and Dortmund to go a little faster, that could set up some of the stalkers and closers for more of a chance. I see this horse as a major x-factor in determining who will win the race if he decides to dictate the pace or forces FL wide in the 1st turn, but he himself will be lucky to hang on and hit the board.
6 - Bodhisattva (20-1) - His name means “enlightened being” in Buddhism. I will enlighten you, and tell you he isn’t going to win. Not even close. The only real positive thing I can say is he has won on this track before. He has shown that he wants the lead, but the speed he was running to get the lead would be lucky to have him in 5th place in a race of this quality. If he runs the same pace, he will be way behind the leaders, and I just think it is safe to toss him out from a top 3 position. He’s a decent horse for the laurel park/pimlico area, but won’t factor in this race in any major way as I see it.
5 - Tale of Verve (30-1) - It is a disgrace that this horse is entered in this race. Tale of Verve has only won a maiden race (a race for horses that have 0 career wins) and it was on his 7th try. They wanted to run him in the derby, but they couldn’t because he didn’t have any qualifying points. His owner has already admitted to this entry being like a lottery ticket. This is like going from a high school track meet straight to the olympic trials. The Preakness needs to get some standards of qualification like the derby to prevent crap horses from entering just to get their name out there or to get the owner’s name on TV. If they instituted some kind of money minimum or something, they could prevent some entries like this. Maybe he will catch lightning in a bottle and make me look like a fool, but I just think it’s a disgrace they are entered. In such a small field, I think ToV could come in 4th or maybe a lucky 3rd because he has run the distance before and will be a closer, but really he will be a leach trying to suck up the scraps of tired horses down the stretch and has no chance to actually win the race.
Horses by style:
SPEED: Firing Line, Dortmund, Divining Rod, Mr. Z
STALKERS: American Pharaoh, Bodhisattva
CLOSERS: Danzig Moon, Tale of Verve
Horses by quality:
Tier 1 = Good chance to win: American Pharaoh
Tier 2 = Outside chance to win: Firing Line, Dortmund
Tier 3 = Good chance to hit the board: Danzig Moon
Tier 4 = Maybe a 3rd?: Divining Rod, Mr. Z
Tier 5 = No real chance at top 3: Bodhisattva
Tier 6 = Owners should be ashamed: Tale of Verve
It is dangerous to completely write off multiple horses in a field of just 8. It is just so possible that one of them runs okay or finishes strong and comes in 3rd or 4th place well behind the winner. The favorites won’t really offer a big pay day, so for me it comes down to finding value in exotics on this race. Putting AP in the top spot and trusting that the horses I say are crap are actually crap seems like the best route. If Dortmund (or Firing Line) runs big and actually wins, then we are out of luck, but for my money, AP as the solo top choice is the way to go.
Exacta: Simple here. AP over FL, Dortmund, DM
It won’t pay much, but it’s just 3 combinations, so it will be cheap. None of the other 4 horses can come in top 2 in my opinion, so as long as AP takes care of business this will hit. A $2 exacta will cost you $6 bucks and if it hits it should pay about $15.
Trifecta: I think American Pharaoh is the horse to beat by a lot. Pletcher doesn’t want his rival Baffert to win the triple crown, and he knew that this race is right in Baffert’s wheelhouse so he is saving all of his bullets for Belmont. I think the way to make some money is to just put AP in the win spot over the other derby horses and throw Divining Rod in as a show horse as well. I’m going to trust my reads on the other horses that I think are clearly multiple tiers below.
American Pharaoh / FL, Dort, DM / FL, Dort, DM, DR
This is a pretty risky bet, but at only 9 combinations, we can bet it more than 1 time for a potential decent payout. Looking historically on Preakness trifecta payouts, the lowest a $1 trifecta has paid out in the past 6 years has been $35. I think even the most chalk combination would have to pay out at least $20. Obviously, some combinations involving danzig moon and divining rod would pay a lot more if they came through.
Superfecta:
American Pharaoh / FL, Dort, DM / FL, Dort, DM, DR / FL, DM, DR, ToV, MrZ
The superfecta starts to get tricky, as even the crappest of horses need to be considered to come in 4th in an 8 horse race. Building off the trifecta, I think I would also add Mr. Z and Tale of Verve for my 4th place position because Mr. Z is okay and ToV has a quality jockey and could sneak up as a closing horse. I am okay leaving Dortmund out of the 4th spot because he should have the talent to come in top 3 and Bod because he will be tiring. This bet now has 32 combinations, which is fairly reasonable for a superfecta bet. Based on the finish it would probably pay a minimum of $100 with a sky-high maximum.
Suggested Bets:
Super risk-adverse: $20 #1 to PLACE
This will hit a high percentage of the time but won’t pay much. It gets you skin in the game at ok value and gives you a rooting interest in the triple crown.
Risk Adverse: $3 Exacta 1, 2 / 1,2,4,8
This will cost a total of $18 and should hit a high percentage of the time. Some combinations may result in roughly breaking even, but you get your feet wet with exotics and have some chances to win some money. I would be pretty surprised if this doesn’t hit, but like I said, you may not even win money if it does.
Riskier: $6 Exacta 1 / 2,4,8
This also costs $18, but it will pay double the other exacta if it wins. Do you trust American Pharaoh to get it done or do you give Dortmund (or some other horse) a shot?
Stepping it up: $2 Trifecta 1 / 2,4,8 / 2,4,7,8
This will yet again cost $18, but now you are calling the top 3. Obviously, we still need AP to take care of business and at this level we start having to dodge crap horses from running the race of their lives to come in 3rd.
Gambler: $0.50 Superfecta 1/ 2,4,8 / 2,4,7,8 / 3,4,5,7,8
Going for broke here. It will cost $16 (I believe you could actually bet it at as low as 10 cents depending on track rules). We start to have to include some junk horses to cover the 4th spot, but the potential is high as well.
What a coincidence?! If you have a fake $100, you can take all my suggestions and save the last $10 to spend on those delicious crab pretzels.
