►► if moriarty hadn't died at reichenbach
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Had Moriarty not died with Sherlock, Sherlock would have stayed dead. Cut off from his companions, utterly on his own trying to destroy a ghost very much still alive as well and he wouldn’t have a chance. Sherlock and Moriarty were never equals and Moriarty would have made sure that score was settled. Moran would be the one to pull the trigger of course, Moriarty would trust it to no one else, and things would return to business as usual.
Moriarty would give orders or expect Sebastian to give them to the underlings he has no time for. Holmes would become a topic neither very much discussed unless in reference to the elder who would, of course, know the means of his brother’s demise. The chase would begin again, but on a scale more properly leveled. Moriarty vs. Mycroft, the real kings in this chess match. Sherlock was simply a queen on the board like Sebastian himself, but the game isn’t lost when he’s gone.
Their attacks on one another are expertly staged, but they never make such noise like Sherlock and Moriarty had. It’s not really a surprise when John in brought back into the fray on a need for vengeance -- Sebastian understands the sentiments, but he’s hardly a threat worth mentioning on his own, even when he does get off a shot in Sebastian’s shoulder. They think it’s a small victory, putting the sniper, temporarily, out of commission, but Sebastian is more than Moriarty’s gun and can still make a terror of things without a rifle in his hands.
In the end it comes to this: an attack on the royal family itself to make Mycroft back down. They don’t kill him, not yet at least. For now it’s enough to let him keep scrabbling for pawns and knights that will never be enough. Moriarty lords the victory over him, and Sebastian is content that things will stay in their favor for good long while. He doesn’t really see retirement as long as Moriarty lives, but he’s alright with that.