#radamesbelfort

[radamesbelfort]

The Year of the "Bull Trap": Notes from December 30

My name is Radames Belfort. I spend my life looking at numbers, but today, the numbers are quiet.

Bitcoin is hovering at $87,248. The Fear Index is at 23. The USD/BRL is at 5.57. On the surface, it looks like just another day. But structurally, it is the end of an era.

The Illusion of the Bounce Yesterday, we saw prices lift towards $89k. Many people messaged me: "Is the bull market back?" Today, that move was erased. This is the final lesson of 2025: Don't mistake a lack of sellers for the presence of buyers.

In the thin air of late December, prices float. They drift. But without the engine of institutional volume, they cannot fly. This "Bull Trap" caught many people off guard because they wanted a happy ending to their year. They wanted the charts to validate their hopes.

The Discipline of doing Nothing My mentor at NYU once told me that the hardest key to press is "Pass." To sit on your hands when the market is moving requires more discipline than jumping in. Today, as I audit my own research and prepare for the launch of my foundation in 2026, I am grateful for the trades I didn't take.

We live in a culture that celebrates action. But in finance, wealth is often preserved in stillness. As we cross into 2026, I wish you the clarity to know the difference between a signal and noise. https://www.radamesbelfort.com/

[radamesbelfort]

Bridging the Gap: From Wall Street to São Paulo's Financial District

My name is Radames Belfort. At 58, I find myself at a unique intersection of my career—bridging the disciplined world of institutional finance with the emerging, often chaotic frontier of digital asset markets.

I was born in Belo Horizonte, but my professional and academic journey has taken me across continents. My foundation was built at the University of São Paulo (USP), but it was my time in the United States that truly shaped my risk management philosophy. I spent years diving deep into Finance at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) and focusing on Market Microstructure at New York University (NYU). These academic pursuits were not just theoretical; they were the bedrock of my tenure at BlackRock, where I learned that the market is not just about price—it is about liquidity, execution costs, and the hidden risks in the order book.

Now back in São Paulo, my role has evolved into that of an educator and researcher. I am not here to make wild predictions. My work focuses on the plumbing of the market: asset pricing, risk premia, and how macro variables influence the crypto spot market. I am interested in how liquidity gaps and transaction costs can destroy a portfolio's value long before a price drop does.

I am currently laying the groundwork for two major projects launching in April 2026: a new investment firm dedicated to rigorous, data-driven strategies, and an angel charity foundation to give back to the community.

Through this blog, I will share my research notes, charts, and thoughts on the Brazilian and global economies. I invite you to join this conversation—not about speculation, but about sustainable, risk-adjusted growth.