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Yesterday, Marco Rubio committed a true Kinsley Gaffe.

#Michale Tallon #Marco Rubio #regional powers

القوى الآسيوية الصاعدة في النظام الدولي - الهند نموذجاً

القوى الآسيوية الصاعدة في النظام الدولي – الهند نموذجاً القوى الآسيوية الصاعدة في النظام الدولي – الهند نموذجاً المؤلف: وفاء لطـفى مدرس العلوم السياسية – كلية الاقتصاد والادارة – جامعة 6 أكتوبر. المستخلص: تسعى هذه الدراسة إلى تقديم تفسير للتحولات في هيكل النظام الدولي باستخدام افتراضات نظرية تحول القوة، من خلال دراسة حالة الصعود الهندي، وما إذا كان يمثل هذا الصعود بالفعل تحولا في موازين القوى…

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#Power shift #regional powers #smart power.#soft power #the international system #the rise of India #القوى الناعمة #القوى الإقليمية #القوة الذكية.#النظام الدولي #تحول القوة #صعود الهند

القوى الآسيوية الصاعدة في النظام الدولي - الهند نموذجاً

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القوى الآسيوية الصاعدة في النظام الدولي - الهند نموذجاً

القوى الآسيوية الصاعدة في النظام الدولي – الهند نموذجاً القوى الآسيوية الصاعدة في النظام الدولي – الهند نموذجاً المؤلف: وفاء لطـفى* مدرس العلوم السياسية -كلية الاقتصاد والادارة -جامعة 6 أكتوبر. المستخلص: تسعى هذه الدراسة إلى تقديم تفسير للتحولات في هيكل النظام الدولي باستخدام افتراضات نظرية تحول القوة، من خلال دراسة حالة الصعود الهندي، وما إذا كان يمثل هذا الصعود بالفعل تحولا في موازين القوى…

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القوى الآسيوية الصاعدة في النظام الدولي - الهند نموذجاً

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The Poles of Power: Part 2

If the superpowers will divide the world amongst themselves - and the great powers left fighting desperately for the scraps - what will happen to the other countries? What will happen to that great multitude of countries who are not lucky enough to count themselves properly empowered? They will find themselves in three natural positions - regional powers, could-have been powers, and vassal states.

Regional powers are countries who cannot properly count themselves as great, but are more powerful than their neighbors. While they can often make a stand for principles against the superpowers, they can only do it with great difficulty if at all. As such, they are not independent nation-states in the proper sense of the word; they do not have complete control over their own affairs. Regional powers must bow down and kowtow to at least superpower, or face the consequences. Despite this, they can often control and dominate other, weaker, countries in their region.

Iran has the power to become a regional power; indeed, it already is one in many respects. Its economy is larger than its neighbors, and it has more people. Iran sponsors states in Syria, Lebanon, and possibly Iraq, as well as being well on its way to completing its nuclear program. Nevertheless, Iran is not without its problems. It has run afoul of the United States in America’s favorite playground, and faces strong challengers in powerful states around the region. Iran’s economy is reeling under international sanctions in return for its vaunted nuclear program. Expect Iran to grow ties with China and Russia to counteract the American influence in the region as well as the pain of its sanctions, though a rapprochement with America is an intriguing possibility.

Another potential regional power is Indonesia. Indonesia’s potential boils down to two basic facts: its size and its natural resources. It is large, much larger than any other country in the regional, and has enough natural resources to grow its economy. The picture is not entirely rosy, however - Indonesia is still dealing with that corruption to endemic to developing countries, a powerful military, and poverty and terrible working conditions.

South Africa differs from Indonesia in that it is already a regional power, albeit one which rarely flexes its muscles. The reason for this is simple; South Africa is nearly a first-world country surrounded by third world countries. Economically, it can dominate all of them; expect to see a free trade agreement involving South Africa and its dependents. However, South Africa is in real danger of devolving into a one party state as it continues to struggle to deal with the legacy of apartheid as well as xenophobia. It can only be with trepidation in its eyes that South Africa nervously casts its gaze northward to Angola, where Chinese-sponsored economic growth threatens to turn Angola into an economic powerhouse.

Nigeria has the potential to stand above its peers, in an economy fueled primarily by size and oil. 170 million people live in the country, and its economy is entering what appears to be exponential growth brought about by the oil sector. These factors are enough to let it stand above its neighbors. First, though, Nigeria must deal with some serious issues: corruption, terrorists groups such as Boko Haram, and mass poverty.

Unlike any other countries on this list, Uganda and Rwanda, while they have the potential to be, and already are, regional powers, are small. Their economies are not large enough to hand them power status on a silver platter. Why then, are recognized as potentially having it, despite their issues with corruption, violence, and poverty? These two countries have strong militaries, an advantage which counts far more since they are located in a portion of the world in which violence is still king. Still, they must ultimately consolidate and absorb other countries, or be outpaced.

Sadly, not all countries with the potential to become great powers or superpowers make the journey. Some fall out along the way, either because they are completely dominated by other countries, cultural reasons, or a mix of both.

Mexico is a perfect example of this. It is both a large country and one endowed with significant natural resources, especially oil. However, it is not a major power in its region, because the United States is. Even the drug cartels in Mexico’s north can be traced back to the US - who is buying the drugs? While Mexico is not dominated by the US per say, though is is definitely part of America’s economic zone, it has no influence in Latin America because it is overshadowed by America.

The same can be said, with a few variations, for South Korea. It is one of the most advanced economies on the face of the planet. Yet, it has almost no hope of becoming a regional power. Why? It is between Russia, China, and Japan; all three actors overshadow it significantly. South Korea will grow to be dependent on one of these countries bar any sort of highly fragile tightrope walking, but its influence is blunted regardless.

Japan should, by all rights, be counted amongst the great powers of the world. It has the world’s third largest economy, and 130 million people. But it simply has too many problems. The economy is sluggish, the debt incredibly high, and there is a major population age problem lurking just below the surface. Beyond that, though, Japan is caught between China and the United States - the only two larger economies in the world. Its influence is blunted by these two giants, as well as by its own past. The countries around Japan remember World War Two all too clearly, and wish no part in an influential Japan.

And what of the rest of the world? After the powerful countries have drawn their lines, what shall the people do? The rest of the nations of the world will become vassals - all to varying degrees - of their more powerful brethren. Their decisions will be made for them so long as they are important. The less important decisions will be left to popular sovereignty. Such is the reality of economic control; it leaves the illusion of choice while eliminating the substance.