#run expectancy

[furryalligator]

(via RE24 | Sabermetrics Library)

[docs3c]

Even When Charlie's Right, He's Wrong

Years from now, when we tell our children and grandchildren how great the Charlie Manual-era Phillies were, there's no mistaking the fact that we will certainly not brag about his in-game tactics.

When Utley, Howard, Rollins & Co. were in their athletic primes, Charlie's decision-making skills were rendered almost moot. The Phillies just out-slugged, out-clutched and out-lucked everyone. But now, with the Phillies in decline and the scores of games much tighter, Charlie's tactical inadequacies are magnified. On top of that, the 2012 season has been so bad that even when Charlie makes the right decision, it has amazed me how often it backfires on him.

Take Sunday's game as an example. In the bottom of the 11th inning, Erik Kratz, the latest in a neverending long line of Phillie backup catchers to reach cult status, lead off with a double. With Jimmy Rollins next at the plate, Charlie rightly eschewed the bunt after spending most of April and May putting the bunt sign on more often than Red Dooin. Yet many fans and analysts thought the bunt play was actually the right thing to do, and when Jimmy Rollins hit a ground ball to shortstop and Kratz inexplicably "bolted" to third base where he was easily thrown out on the fielder's choice, the fanalysts cried out "See!"

Kraptz.

— Tom G.(@doctomg) August 12, 2012

Watching that makes you wonder if Erik Kratz has ever played baseball before.

— Tom G.(@doctomg) August 12, 2012

However, the fact is, Charlie made the right decision and he can't be blamed for Kratz's complete brain-cramp. From 1993 to 2010, when baseball teams had a runner on second and no outs, they scored on average 1.17 runs in the inning. However, when teams had a man on third and one out, they averaged 0.989 runs in the inning.

As it turns out, Jimmy Rollins eventually made his way to third base and scored the winning run on Juan Pierre's infield single, so we can certainly describe this as all's well that end's well.

The lesson here though is, just because Charlie Manual's strengths lie elsewhere, don't be so quick to assume he made the wrong call.