Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate—or maybe they’re trying to create a sense of momentum
Greg Sargent and Michael Tomasky at TNR:
Last month, a GOP-friendly polling firm presented itself, and its data, in a highly unusual way. Rather than maintain a nominally neutral public-facing profile, this pollster acted more like a cavalry brigade for Donald Trump’s campaign. And the firm did so explicitly, openly, and proudly. It all went down in mid-September, at a time when the FiveThirtyEight polling averages showed the slightest of leads for Kamala Harris in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump. Her edge was short-lived: The averages moved back to favoring Trump. And Quantus Insights, a GOP-friendly polling firm, took credit for this development. When a MAGA influencer celebrated the pro-Trump shift on X (formerly Twitter), Quantus’s account responded: “You’re welcome.” The implication was clear. A Quantus poll had not only pushed the averages back to Trump; this was nakedly the whole point of releasing the poll in the first place.
To proponents of what might be called the “Red Wave Theory” of polling, this was a blatant example of a phenomenon that they see as widespread: A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump’s favor. In the view of these critics, the Quantus example (the firm subsequently denied any such intent) only made all this more overt: Dozens of such polls have been released since then, and they are in no small part responsible for tipping the averages—and the forecasts—toward Trump. Coming at a time when right-wing disinformation is soaring—and Trump’s most feverish ally, Elon Musk, is converting X into a bottomless sewer pit of MAGA-pilled electoral propaganda—these critics see all this as a hyper-emboldened version of what happened in 2022, when GOP polls flooded the polling averages and arguably helped make GOP Senate candidates appear stronger than they were, leading to much-vaunted predictions of a “red wave.” Most prominently, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg and data analyst Tom Bonier, who were skeptical of such predictions in 2022 and ultimately proved correct, are now warning that all this is happening again.
In their telling, GOP data is serving an essential end of pro-Trump propaganda, which is heavily geared toward painting him as a formidable, “strong” figure whose triumph over the “weak” Kamala Harris is inevitable. This illusion is essential to Trump’s electoral strategy, goes this reading, and GOP-aligned data firms are concertedly attempting to build up that impression, both in the polling averages and in media coverage that is gravitationally influenced by it. They are also engaged in a data-driven psyop designed to spread a sense of doom among Democrats that the election is slipping away from them.
[...] The 2022 cycle also arguably saw a new phenomenon really come to the fore: the rise of openly right-leaning pollsters that consistently showed better results for Republican candidates. Now these questions have once again arisen: Should these pollsters be included in aggregators’ averages or not? And what should you think of the case for their inclusion made by the aggregators, which is that they weight polls in a way that reflects their comparative credibility? [...] Some of the pollsters that got those races wrong are the same ones pumping out polls right now on the presidential race. One notable example is Trafalgar, which released polls in 2022 that showed five Republican Senate candidates either ahead or much closer than they ended up finishing. The most notable of these was in Washington state, where a Trafalgar poll in late October showed Democratic incumbent Patty Murray up by just 1.7 points over GOP challenger Tiffany Smiley. That poll generated a raft of “Is Patty Murray in trouble?” stories, the idea being that if even Murray was sinking in very blue Washington, then maybe a huge red wave really was gathering force. (Murray won by 15 points.) We’re seeing a similar bombardment in the presidential race this time around. So what is it doing to the averages? The keepers of the averages insist that the impact is very minimal. Outfits like FiveThirtyEight; Split Ticket, the Times’ in-house polling tracker; and Nate Silver’s forecast all take methodological steps ostensibly to ensure that “garbage-in” polls don’t lead to “garbage-out” results. These include downgrading the “weight” of polls thought to be systematically biased so they have less influence on the averages than high-quality polls do. (FiveThirtyEight has detailed criteria for determining whether pollsters are high quality, including empirical accuracy and methodological transparency.) Another step is adjusting for a particular pollster’s “house effects” to downplay biases.
[...] In the real world of media spin wars, that sort of difference does matter. In the last week or so, when the averages edged toward Trump, both TV commentators and Twitter accounts cited the tiniest of leads for Trump as evidence that he’s currently winning the state. Even more irresponsibly, some outlets assign candidates electoral votes based on such narrow leads. The GOP polls nudged the averages by less than a point, but they also arguably moved them in a way that prompted people to declare that Trump is now winning—not even just leading, but winning—the election. The aggregators argue that these tiny shifts aren’t really a problem. In their view, a lead of 0.4 points isn’t actually a lead: They view it as statistically insignificant, as pretty much the same as a lead of 0.4 points in the other direction.
But the perception this creates of a shift is indeed a problem. To illustrate the point, Bonier says that he sometimes gets calls from journalists who, prompted by such tiny movements to Trump, are looking to write stories about a momentum shift his way. “I had multiple reporters reaching out to me asking what’s wrong with the Harris campaign when the polling averages moved half a point toward Trump,” Bonier told us. Rosenberg believes that this small nudging of polls, for the express purpose of shifting the averages just enough to put Trump ahead, is the primary goal of GOP pollsters flooding the averages in the first place. In this understanding, it does not matter if the shift is negligible (as the aggregators claim), as long as it accomplishes the goal of putting Trump narrowly in front and giving spinners grist to proclaim the race is moving his way. “The only reason the Republicans would be doing this,” Rosenberg says, “is if their own internal data was telling them they are not winning the election.” Jain, of Split Ticket, allows that this can create a perception problem. “A shift from Harris up 0.5 to Trump up 0.5 is a lot less significant than people believe,” Jain says. “Aggregators should be clearer on this point. Republicans since 2016 have been obsessed with projecting strength. I do think that some of the lower-quality Republican-aligned pollsters try to create effects that show Trump surging or leading.”
The New Republic’s Michael Tomasky and Greg Sargent wrote a solid piece on why GOP-affiliated polling firms are releasing polls with the intent to game the polling averages in Donald Trump’s favor.
This feels like a repeat of 2022, in which GOP-affiliated polling firms released polls to push the red wave narrative that fizzled into a red trickle.
