Long Term Agile Planning
One criticism of Agile methodologies is that long term planning is neglected or, at least, runs against the grain. This may be an impression born out of a lack of deeper familiarity with Agile methods. Long term planning in the form of release planning is very prevalent in the ecosystem of agile methods and processes. Renown agile coach Mike Cohn has an entire chapter on release planning essentials in his book Agile Estimating and Planning. He defines release planning as “..the process of creating a very high-level plan that covers a period longer than an iteration.” and says the following about it: “At its simplest level, release planning is trivial: Multiply the expected velocity by the number of planned iterations and then select stories whose estimates sum to fill up the release.”
Or consider this excerpt taken from Essential Scrum by Kenneth S. Rubin: “If the term release planning doesn’t fit well with your organization’s practices, replace the terminology with longer-term planning or milestone-driven planning. Whatever you choose to call it, release planning in Scrum targets a future state when important variables such as date, scope, and budget need to be balanced. The basic timing, participants, and process remain the same regardless of the name.”
Nevertheless, many people still think that long term planning isn't useful or is a slide back into waterfall methods. But if you take a moment to think about it, a few things become clear. Any objection to long term planning could equally be an objection to sprint planning as well. One could argue, and some do, that the daily scrum is sufficient and that it doesn't make any sense to try and plan anything beyond the day.
Some advocates of KanBan argue this very thing. I, for one, can not abide by this philosophy. I can not escape the maxim that a failure to plan is a plan to fail. To make no long term plans is to be ruled by the tyranny of the immediate. Only the very next thing that has been discovered will dominate a team's consciousness in this context and fire drills and heroics will dominate the day.
Any sense of improvement and purpose cannot be sustained in this setting. As humans, we naturally see all things in the context of planning, purpose, and growth. We want to and expect to, travel a chosen path and arrive at some destination. Few of us can say we arrived where we thought we would but we arrived somewhere, nevertheless, and that destination was determined by each of the decisions made along the way.
Let's review some of the concrete benefits of long term planning.
Capacity Planning. Knowing what's possible. You can’t put 10lbs of crap in a 5lb bucket. A feedback loop is created between the engineering team and the product owner thus informing them of what is indeed possible.
Measuring Impact of changing priorities. Seeing the impact of changing priorities. The cost of contact switching is a reality at an organizational level and not just at an individual level. Adding a few things here and there directly impacts what the team thought they could do several sprints from now.
Cross Team Coordination. Giving the organization time to plan (marketing, finance, resources management). All major organizations need time for these. Not everything moves at the same speed. There are budgets and legal issues that need to be worked out. Proposals for more resources require time to get sorted out as well.
Product Vision Alignment. It’s too easy to be driven by pressing stakeholders all vying for each of their desired features and lose sight of the product vision. Long term planning helps to highlight the actual values behind the product vision.
Contextual Awareness. If teams are to be self-directed and autonomous, then it’s imperative they are aligned on mission and possess a shared context with the greater organization. Cultivating a real sense of autonomy, personal responsibility, and sense of purpose will do more for team morale than any superficial perks ever could. See: Context over control
Having established that long term planning is both normative and valuable, what then are its characteristics? What exactly does it look like and how does it differ from the other established forms of planning? This is somewhat a trick question because long term planning in an agile context should share all the same characteristics of the other types of planning.
The whole team is involved and drives the answer. This is not an exclusive product initiative made behind closed doors and presented to the teams
Works backward from a date (day, sprint, quarter) See: Yes, you should estimate
It is uncertain and subject to change.

















