#stereanalysis

[stereax]

Stereax's 32 Bold Predictions

"Fortune favors the bold. Or so the saying goes. Hockey is notoriously the most difficult sport to predict – where every year at least a handful of playoff teams turnover, some of which we least expect. The unexplainable is to be expected.

That’s why making bold proclamations to start each season is a fool’s errand. But this is supposed to be fun. The only rule: No obvious predictions. You have to step out on the ledge." - Frank Seravalli.

I haven't read the 2025 predictions from Seravalli or anyone else. I'm going in blind. 32 bold predictions, one for each team. Let's go.

🦆 - Anaheim flips a former Ranger at the trade deadline. Because let's face it: they're not going to be that good. Jacob Trouba would be a great add for a playoff team in need of a right-shot, physical defenseman, but Chris Kreider is also a prime target - if Anaheim makes him available. Ryan Strome, too, is an interesting case that could be moved for the right price.

🐻 - Boston is the most penalized team in the league, by minutes. A team that prides itself on its grit that's slowly backsliding out of relevancy is going to throw some hands - especially in the Atlantic.

🦬 - Buffalo fires its GM. Kevyn Adams has been given one task: to get the Sabres back to the playoffs. He's failed miserably at every turn and has been generally unable to buld a good team. The recent trading-away of JJ Peterka underscores that Buffalo just isn't on a path to contend soon and players are aware of that. I'm not sure why Adams hasn't been canned yet, honestly. Maybe it's just apathy from the owners.

🌪️ - Carolina puts the most shots on goal of the league. Not a super bold prediction, considering Carolina's playstyle, but other teams, notably Edmonton and Florida, also put a ton of shots on net.

🧥 - Columbus sees the team and especially Zach Werenski reach another level, breaking 90 points and winning the Norris. I don't want to say 100 - that's too bold, even for me - but if it happens, I called it.

🔥 - Calgary does not trade Rasmus Andersson during the season and he walks in free agency. Andersson seems to be on the way out in Calgary, especially for a team that's trying to rebuild, but he was famously on the trading block last year and the deals fell through. Calgary generally seems to have a tough time with trades. I assume Andersson is gone by the trade deadline, honestly, but if Calgary can't get a return they think is good enough...

🦅 - Chicago's leading point scorer is not Connor Bedard. It might be Frank Nazar. It could be Ryan Donato or Teuvo Teravainen. But it won't be Bedard.

🏔️ - Colorado takes home the Hart Trophy at the hands of Nathan MacKinnon. Landeskog's back. The Avs are back. High-end talent is the name of the game. Let's ride.

⭐ - Dallas wins the President's Trophy. Their team has consistently had very strong regular seasons, plus, a full year of Mikko Rantanen will pay dividends in the standings.

🪽 - Detroit scores the most powerplay goals in the league. Detroit doesn't have a ton going for it, but its powerplay is definitely a bright spot. Plus, they will likely have a lot of opportunity to capitalize on that powerplay, given the rash of enforcers infecting the Atlantic.

💧 - Edmonton struggles a lot more than anyone's expecting to start the season, in part because of the wear on a lot of their core players, and Connor Ingram is getting starts by the Olympic break. Stuart Skinner, meet Jack Campbell.

🐈 - Florida clinches the playoffs in a non-wildcard seed. The internet seems convinced Florida is about to miss the playoffs, but they're still an incredibly strong team even down Barkov and Tkachuk. Plus, the Atlantic is full of movement this year. I think they're going to be the Atlantic 2 or 3 seed.

👑 - Los Angeles sends off its captain by breaking the timeloop and beating the Oilers in the playoffs. Absolute cinema. (Plus, have you seen the Oilers' winger situation?)

🌲 - Minnesota takes home the Calder at the hands of Zeev Buium. Ivan Demidov is the runaway favorite right now, but I'm not super convinced that he's going to have a Calder-worthy season. Plus, Buium is being handed the keys to a powerplay featuring a recently-extended Kirill Kaprizov and company. I could absolutely see him pulling a Lane Hutson and finishing with 60+ points on the season.

🎖️ - Montreal, speaking of Lane Hutson, sees him finish with the most ice time per game of all Habs skaters. In order to be a top defenseman and make top defenseman dollar, Hutson will have to show he's able to contribute 22, 23, even 25 minutes a night. I don't doubt that he's capable of it - but also, he doesn't penalty kill, which takes away from his TOI. (Or play much defense...)

😈 - New Jersey wins the playoffs in the East and advances to their first Cup Final since 2012. Every team in the East looks to have a weakness now - even Florida, who, while they should get Matthew Tkachuk and hopefully Sasha Barkov back for the playoffs, might have to repay their debts from three consecutive Cup Finals. As long as New Jersey manages to stay healthy, I can absolutely see them cleaning up a weak Metro. (They were statistically better than the Canes last year with one regular healthy defenseman and no Jack Hughes).

🎸 - Nashville keeps Brady Martin on the roster past his 9-game tryout. CHL players are allowed to play up to 9 NHL games a year and still be eligible to return to the CHL - this should be the case with Martin, who should play 9 games with the Preds and then return to the Soo Greyhounds, but, considering Nashville is already penciling him in at 1C, they might do the crazy thing and just keep him in the NHL the whole year, reasoning that he's at least physically capable of hanging with the big leaguers full-time.

🏝️ - New York sees Matthew Schaefer play a full 82-game season. Load management is a thing for a lot of rookies, as is injury, but I feel like Schaefer's in a position where he can play the full season with the proverbial training wheels coming off. Plus, without Noah Dobson, someone's going to need to step up on the backend. Preferably not named Tony DeAngelo.

🛡️ - New York re-signs Artemi Panarin for a higher AAV than his current $11.6M contract. Russians are famously fierce negotiators (see: Kaprizov) and, without Panarin, the Rangers will be in a MUCH worse position than they currently are in. I don't see a world where Panarin extends in New York on the cheap, given how much leverage he has. Maybe he goes back to Chicago or Columbus - they've got a lot of cap space, after all, and exciting young stars. But I think that New York will simply have to pony up and pay the Breadman all the dough.

💂 - Ottawa puts up the most hits on the year. The Sens play a hard-nosed game and, as part of that, lay the body a lot. Last year, Florida ran away with this stat, but I think Ottawa will have them beat this year.

🍊 - Philadelphia sweeps the series versus its rival the Penguins. They play four games this year; that means the Flyers have to win all 4. I don't really know if this'll happen - I suspect the Penguins will take one if not two, just because of the whole "winning four games" thing - but I think the Flyers will keep it close in every game. 

🐧 - Pittsburgh wins the 2026 draft lottery. That team is going nowhere fast, and the Dan Muse hiring underscores the focus on rebuilding. Plus, with a "generational" talent in Gavin McKenna at stake, it'd be poetry for Sidney Crosby to begin to pass the torch that was passed onto him by Mario Lemieux. Yeah, Sid isn't being traded. Come on, guys.

🐙 - Seattle allows Kaapo Kakko to flourish and he sets a career high with 45+ points on the season. A bit risky, considering Kakko is already out with a broken hand, but he seemed to hit his groove in Seattle and, when he returns, could easily have a strong stretch of play.

🦈 - San Jose watches its core take a step forward - while they're still going to be bad this year, there will be at least 3 players who score 70 points and Macklin Celebrini will be point-per-game. It's a stretch, but I think they can do it.

🎵 - St Louis's backup, Joel Hofer, has a higher save percentage than its starter, Jordan Binnington. Well... this has happened each year for the last three years, so I don't know how hot of a take it is. But I think Hofer might be able to take a larger and larger role in the Blues' crease. Plus, good goalies are hard to come by, and if a team in dire need of an upgrade in net makes the Blues an offer they can't refuse...

⚡ - Tampa Bay collects a third consecutive Art Ross via Nikita Kucherov scoring 130+ points. Kucherov has been ridiculous in the regular season - in 2023-24, he had 100 assists on top of 44 goals. In fact, he hasn't scored less than 100 points in a full season since 2017-18, and, even in 2019-20 and 2021-22, he was still on pace for 100+ points. There's no sign that he's ready to slow down just yet.

🍁 - Toronto trades Easton Cowan. Toronto doesn't have a ton of assets - if and when the trade deadline comes, they're going to need to give something good up to shore up some of their roster holes. Maybe a Bryan Rust from Pittsburgh would be a good target. In either case, besides Cowan and a 2028 1st, the cupboard is pretty bare. If it's a sellers' market again like it was last year, Toronto might need to move Cowan to get the win-now piece they're hoping for.

🦣 - Utah makes the playoffs with Vezina-candidate goaltending from Karel Vejmelka. "Veggie" is often overlooked because he's playing for a team that historically hasn't been that great, but, with the moves that Utah is making and the team in front of him, allowing a spotlight to be pointed his way, I think that Vejmelka will receive serious votes for the Vezina.

🐋 - Vancouver gets its shit together. There will be significantly less drama than in the past year, in part because Jim Rutherford will shut up, and, buoyed by a resurgence of Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and Quinn Hughes as well as newcomers like Jonathan Lekkerimaki, they will, if not make the playoffs, then be in the wildcard race down to the final days of the season. (Too bold?)

⚔️ - Vegas makes it further in the playoffs than Toronto does. That's not super bold of a take, but critically: Mitch Marner beats his "not showing up in big games" stigma and scores a series-winning goal. (Or at least assists on one.)

🛩️ - Winnipeg sees Kyle Connor put up his first 50+ goal season. Fresh off his contract extension, there's definitely pressure to perform, plus, with Nikolaj Ehlers gone, someone's gotta put the puck in the net.

🏛️ - Washington has Alex Ovechkin put up 300+ shots on goal and 35+ goals. Ovi doesn't seem to be slowing down any, but he seems to be a little more selective with his shots now. This, plus his time on ice slowly going down, has led to him not breaking 300+ shots on goal for the past 3 years. But for his "last ride" (unless we hear otherwise), the team is going to try to give it to Ovi as much as possible.

And you know what? Let's do some more "general" predictions:

🏒 - We'll see a Four Nations final in the Olympic final, but this time America is going to beat Canada to take the gold.

🏒 - Pete DeBoer is employed by the end of the playoffs. I can't see a world where he isn't at the top of the list for any team that's firing their coach.

🏒 - I'm not going to predict playoff teams, but I will predict that exactly 4 teams will be in the playoffs that were not in the playoffs the year before. The average over the past few years is around 6, but I don't know if there's going to be as much moving and shaking this year.

🏒 - Speaking of the playoffs, I predict exactly 1 sweep all playoffs. League parity is increasing; even in those series last year that looked like obvious sweeps, the losing team rallied for at least one win.

🏒 - Expansion to 34 or even 36 teams will be officially approved by the NHL. Things are absolutely trending that way, and I would not be surprised if there were 36 teams by 2030 or so.

🏒 - There will be at least one trade done before December 20th for the purposes of doing a double retention at the trade deadline.

🏒 - Penn State does not make the Frozen Four. Despite McKenna and other top CHL talents moving to Penn State, I'm not sure if they're not going to suffer from a classic case of too many cooks. Plus, in college hockey, having a team with "superstars" often takes a backseat to those teams that are truly cohesive and play as a unit. Just go ask Ryan Leonard how his college hockey playoffs went...

🏒 - The Walter Cup will be won by a new expansion team. PWHL Vancouver and Seattle have rosters that are absolutely stacked, in part due to the expansion rules, and they should be favorites to win it all.

Now, let's make this into a tag game! Inspired by van puckpocketed, blame him LOL. Obviously, I'm not going to ask you to make 32+ predictions, but make 3-5 "bold" predictions about the new season, tag me so I get to read them all, and tag some friends to join in. (It doesn't have to be NHL either - college hockey, women's hockey, minor leagues, Euro leagues, whatever you've got ideas about! And if you're down to write 32+ predictions... go for it.)

I'm going to tag a bunch of people, sorry hahaha... @puckpocketed, @barkov, @sashabarkov, @callsign-bubbles, @tapedsleeves, @neonfretra, @endeus, @celenguini, @macktism, @starrynet, @korshrimpski, @wheelsnipecelebrini, @ittybittyjuice...

And obviously, if you want to play, consider yourself tagged by me, too! (If I tagged you and you don't want to play, that's alright as well.)

[stereax]

i don’t really understand the logic behind boston trading ullmark away when they didn’t even have swayman signed yet, and i was wondering if you could please explain this? or does this decision not make any sense (looking at it from the outside) to other people too?

thanks in advance! <3

It makes zero sense, anon!

What Boston should have done was sign Swayman before trading Ullmark. Basically, if Sway refused to sign for a reasonable deal, they could trade HIM and keep Ully, or at least threaten that. Trading Ully first gave Sway all the cards - now, if he sits out the start of the season, Boston is relying on Korpisalo to be an effective goaltender in order to stay afloat. That drives Sway's price further up, and he can basically go "pay me 8x10m or I'm sitting out" and Boston will have to figure out how to get it done. They can't really trade him now, and if they do, they're tanking and they will get a terrible return.

Don Sweeney is an idiot.

I assume the reason they traded Ullmark was because they believed that was the best offer they would get, and that Ullmark's value would drop significantly over the offseason, but god, the return was bad, especially now looking back at it...

EDIT USER VAN @puckpocketed ALERTED ME THAT THEY MIGHT HAVE HAD TO PUNT ULLMARK BEFORE HE UPDATED HIS NO TRADE LIST WHICH IS. THE FUNNIEST THING. (even tho I think the sens were on his ntc but. LMAO)

[stereax]

hola stereax i’m wondering if you have time could explain how using ltir impacts a team’s ability to accrue cap space? i was under the impression teams don’t want to start out the year with players on ltir because it means they can’t accrue cap space to acquire “rental” players at the deadline. but edmonton fans seem to be v excited abt putting e kane on ltir before the season starts. am i misunderstanding that rule? or is accruing cap space just not as meaningful as i thought?

Yes and no. To put this very simply:

Players' AAVs are chopped into 186(ish) bite-sized "day bits", as I call them. Every day they are on the roster is one day bit towards the cap.

So if your players' salaries total $87m, and the NHL cap is $88m, you can, theoretically, acquire a player exactly halfway through the season with a cap hit of $2m, as his day bits will total the $1m gap. This is cap accrual - the extra day bits unused can be piled on later to allow teams to go over the numerical salary cap later in the season as long as they were under it beforehand.

Now, when you go on LTIR, you no longer accrue cap. Cap accrual is... In some facets, it's super important, because the "wiggle room" can make or break a deal. However, in many cases, the space made by shifting a player to LTIR is more beneficial.

For a team like the Oilers, that is already pushed up against the cap, accruing on, say, $900k of cap space is less useful than LTIRing Kane for the year. That $900k will only turn into $3-4m by the deadline, if Yahoo is correct in its day bit calculations. Kane's contract going on season-long LTIR frees up $5m(ish) via the LTIR Pool that can be used freely at any point during the season. The less space you have and the higher the contract to LTIR, the more the equation skews in favor of LTIR.

Does that help?

[stereax]

oh also am i wildly naive to think the league wouldn’t allow edmonton to ltir e kane for an entire season over a sports hernia? while certainly a legitimate injury i’ve never heard of it keeping someone out for longer than 3 months. didn’t the leafs get in trouble years ago for trying to do this?

Well, Kane's got... a lot more than just a hernia going on. We just got the details on it (this anon was sent months ago) -

The issue is when you LTIR a player who doesn't actually BELONG on LTIR and is healthy and able to play. Generally, the league is kind of lax about LTIR rules for obvious reasons. Players LTIRetire, sometimes even if they're technically physically able to play, because of health concerns - Marian Hossa is the obvious example here. However, when you start getting into "timing" surgeries and things to keep players on LTIR for the whole year, that's... the NHL doesn't care, but it's problematic for player health and contracts. The Leafs' Matt Murray one still annoys me.

The only thing the NHL doesn't want is teams acquiring injured players, putting the players they just acquired on LTIR, and activating them day 1 of the playoffs, as per a memo.

[stereax]

not-so-theoretically (since everyone, right down to emily kaplan unprompted at the draft, is convinced a trade will happen) where would you see zegras landing? i know philly is the quasi romantic option but i kinda think torerella would be a bad match. i remember him openly scorning that michigan goal,,,

I've talked a little bit about Zegras and trade rumors here already. The very simple answer is, if a team really wants him, they will make room for him, somehow.

Now, some people (hello van puckpocketed) are convinced that he's never ever ever getting traded. Some people think he's already got his bags packed out of Anaheim. The truth, I think, is somewhere in between. I don't think he's going to be traded now, especially after the massive down year he had and his injury issues. However, I'm not fully sold that he's going to stay a Duck for life, especially given that the top six already has Terry, McTavish, Carlsson, Gauthier, and Sennecke penciled in - and, of course, the Ducks aren't expected to be good this year and will likely have another top pick in the 2025 draft. It's very possible he goes the Necas route and does short term contracts until he hits free agency. If he does get traded, however, it's most likely going to be a team in the East that has cap space and wants young talent. I'm not saying the Pens, but, like, that'd be hysterical. Caps could be a good option too for him. Depends who wants him and what they're willing to pay.

[stereax]

HOW TO FANTASY: THE PRIMER

Hey there! Are you looking to join your first fantasy hockey league this year? Or maybe you need tips on how to dominate your league. In both situations, you've come to the right place. Sit down and let's talk fantasy hockey!

The Scoring

Before you begin even thinking about your draft, make sure to check the scoring system in place in your fantasy league. Are you in a points or categories league?

Points are more standard, where different actions like goals, assists, and blocked shots are worth a different number of points and weighted accordingly. Categories instead count per action, with a focus on winning a majority of the categories. To explain, take this example: in a standard points league, a goal is 2 points and an assist is 1. In such a league, one goal and two assists is the same as four assists, points-wise. However, in categories, the 1G/2A combo wins the "goals" category, while the 0G/4A combo wins the "assists" category.

Additionally, check whether you're in a "roto" league. Most leagues play week-by-week, where each week you're given a new opponent to beat in either points or categories; roto leagues don't do this, instead having you play the entire season before tabulating up all the points and seeing who wins. This isn't to be confused with a "dynasty" or "keeper" league, where you get to keep some of your players from one year to another.

Generally, I recommend a points league for beginners. It's simpler to grasp and offers a robust array of players that are good. Categories can get needlessly complex; roto is a more advanced way to play; keeper leagues are maybe not the best idea for a new player, either.

This is the "standard" ESPN scoring for a points league, but many variations exist. Some leagues give positive points to penalty minutes, while others subtract points for bad behavior; drafting a high-PIM player like either Tkachuk can be a slam dunk or asking for trouble, depending on which you're in. Some leagues add points for takeaways and subtract for giveaways. Personally, I like to add an extra point for game-winning goals and hat tricks, and up the points from 0.5 to 1.5 for short-handed points. These changes don't make major differences in scoring but are still fun to play with - plus, hatties should get rewarded!

Skaters

Some leagues split forwards into LW, C, and RW, and require you to have a certain number of each on your roster; make sure to take note of this and draft accordingly. Others just split into F, D, and UTIL - the utility slot where you can play either a forward or defenseman. From my experience, centers tend to bring in slightly more points than wingers, but it's not a marked difference. Defenseman score less in the goals/assists/SOG categories, but are helped with block and hit stats. Some defensemen like Jeremy Lauzon, Jacob Trouba, and Chris Tanev are mostly fantasy-relevant due to those blocks and hits. Other defensemen, like Quinn Hughes and Evan Bouchard, rely on their scoring generation to be fantasy-relevant.

A normal ESPN league has a 9-5-1-2-5 set-up, where there are 9 forward slots, 5 defensemen, 1 util, 2 goalies, and 5 bench slots to draft. (Bench slots are for players who aren't playing on a specific day and can be F, D, or G.) Save one bench slot for a third goalie - more on that in a second - and use the other four bench slots on skaters so you can cycle them in based on who's playing.

Goalies

Goalies are... special, both in hockey and in fantasy. This is because, unlike skaters, goalies can end up in the negatives for points. In a standard ESPN league, a goalie gains 0.2 points per save, but loses 2 points per goal against. This means, to break even, a goalie needs to save 10/11 shots against, around a .909 SV%. Obviously, not all goalies will do this every game. Some get buried to the tune of 10 goals against in some games. No matter how good MacKenzie Blackwood or Petr Mrazek are, they will get buried sometimes because their defenses are not great. However, all one has to do is remember the crazy 10-7 Canucks-Wild game last season to know this isn't uniquely a Bad Teams phenomenon. Thus, the goalie position is extra risky in fantasy.

Sheltering a goalie is a more advanced strategy that is incredibly important if you're trying to lock down a matchup. Simply put, "sheltering" the goalie means benching him for the night, even though he's playing a game. Got a matchup that's Lukas Dostal versus the Florida Panthers? Might want to shelter Dosty. How about Dan Vladar against the New Jersey Devils? I'm sheltering Vladar. While you will not gain any points if the goalie does pull out the win, you are protected from the goalie bleeding points. If you think it's significantly more likely that the goalie loses than he wins, consider sheltering him.

I recommend drafting 3 goalies for this reason. Having only 2 makes it difficult to shelter a goalie. Additionally, switching in goalies as needed makes it easier to gain more goalie game points. You can usually have up to 4 goalies, and having more definitely can help, but I think 3 is a sweet spot.

On backups - drafting a near-guaranteed backup (think Jonathan Quick, Semyon Varlamov, Joonas Korpisalo) generally won't have its benefits. Those guys are better off as streaming options on nights when they get easy matchups (more on streaming later). However, picking up a 1B who can take over the net if things go south injury- or luck-wise (think Arturs Silovs, Philipp Grubauer, Joel Hofer) may be quite helpful. Again, this is play-by-ear territory.

The Draft

Before you draft for real, do a mock draft. Or several. I'm an advocate of mocking multiple drafts before the real thing. It's similar to a practice test - the more times you do it, the better you get at it. At least one is almost necessary if only to understand the drafting interface, which can be complex all on its own. Doing more mocks allows you to pick different players at different picks, giving you more of an idea of players you want, players you don't, and players you're willing to draft over or under their ADP (average draft position).

The day of the draft can make or break a team. Do not autodraft if at all possible. If you cannot make it to your draft date/time, set an extensive auto queue to try to secure as many players you like as possible. Trust me. I didn't do this in one league and I ended up with Ivan Provorov and Tony DeAngelo. Ew.

If you draft first overall, you should probably pick Connor McDavid. Don't go for a "spice" pick like Sidney Crosby, who is incredibly unlikely to hit McDavid's point totals. While McDavid was almost always the consensus 1OA in previous years, this is no longer the case - you can make solid arguments for Nathan MacKinnon or Auston Matthews as the 1OA pick in your league. Checking the ADP of players in the Research stats view is helpful here to see where people are valuing certain players outside of projected stats. This will also help you figure out your strategy of who you'll draft where - if Mikko Rantanen and Jack Hughes are both available at pick 10 of a draft, you should take Rantanen, as his 7.9 ADP means he's likely not going to make it back to you, whereas Hughes's 26.2 ADP means he's much more likely to come back.

A side note, though - know thy enemy. Is your league full of Devils fans? Load up on Western Conference players and Rangers, who will likely be undervalued by them. Got a league full of Avs fans? Break out the Red Wings livery and snap up players like Moritz Seider and Dylan Larkin. I took advantage of this in a Pens fans league, grabbing Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, and Jack Hughes in my first few picks when the rest of the league was drafting all their favorite Penguins and ex-Pens. Also, Sam Reinhart with a 20th round pick didn't hurt, either. Use your fellow drafters' blind spots to your advantage.

The first few rounds should be your star players - the types of players you rely on night-in and night-out to pick up solid points. Depending on the size of your league, the stars may dry up sooner or later. A six-team league may have rosters with most, if not all, stars; a sixteen-team league will likely be leaning on bottom-sixers.

Generally, players on better teams do better. However, better players also do better. Don't draft a bottom-sixer from the Oilers just because of the team they're on; Tyler Toffoli of the Sharks will outscore Brett Kulak seven days a week and twice on Sunday. However, if you're debating whether to pick up a middle-sixer from the Kings or from the Predators, I'd lean towards the latter.

"Should I draft my blorbos?" I can't stop you. What I'd recommend is trying to draft said blorbos in later rounds, if possible. Ultimately, fantasy is personal - maybe you only want to win if it involves dragging your favorite scrappy fourth-liner along for the ride. However, I don't think you'd have gotten this far into this primer if you plan on drafting solely based off sentimentality...

Now, about goalies. Goalie strategies are weird - you can either try to lock top goalies in/around rounds 3-7, or you can try to pick up goalies later in the draft - even at the end. Goalies are voodoo. Whichever floats your boat. While there are a handful of genuinely "elite" goalies (Connor Hellebuyck, Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin) that are worthwhile in early rounds due to their consistency, all three of them struggled at points last year. Other "elite" goalies (Juuse Saros, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Ilya Sorokin) struggled even more. Meanwhile, goalies that were not considered "elite" at all (Cam Talbot, Charlie Lindgren, Connor Ingram) had incredibly solid seasons. Play goalies by ear - if you see an early run on G, you may want to pick up a good one before they're all gone, or try to goalie by committee with several less "elite" picks. If people wait, you may want to get the best goalie first, or wait it out with them to pick up more skaters first. There are also teams that do a "zero G" strategy, where they pick up, you guessed it, exactly zero goalies. This lowers the goalie risk, but also lowers the goalie reward. Personally, I think they're mildly cowardly (accept goalies into your heart!) but it's a strategy you can definitely consider, especially if you're risk-averse.

Also, don't forget newcomers! Players who are entering the league this season, such as top draft picks Macklin Celebrini and Matvei Michkov, are often overlooked, yet can be massive boosts to a team. Drafting one or more of these newer players can be a wild card in your fantasy team, giving high potential points if things work out right.

Watch for breakout players as well, who may have a great season with a bit of luck - players like Alexander Holtz and Matt Poitras can do serious damage if the stars align. Did I write this just to mention Holtz? Possibly. You can't prove it though.

In many of these cases, you need to keep an eye on preseason lines and watch who's playing with who on which lines and which powerplays. If a player isn't on the powerplay and is in the bottom half of the lineup, he's likely not going to get great opportunities. If he's skating next to a franchise centerman, on the other hand, the points are likely to roll in.

This is also where your tolerance of Listening To Other People Talk About Hockey comes into play - over the next few weeks, many of these Other People will be putting up articles and a lot of podcasts and videos about fantasy sleepers. Reading or listening to a few is a good way to get an idea of some late-round picks you might want to consider. They are kind of grating, though.

One last thing to consider is "stacks". Stacks are essentially drafting several players who play on the same line/powerplay and letting the points roll in. For instance, if you draft Nathan MacKinnon with your second overall pick, you should strongly consider picking up Mikko Rantanen or Cale Makar with the next pick you have, then adding to them with Jonathan Drouin in a later round. The thinking is, when MacKinnon scores, those other players are likely to pick up assists off it. However, you need to be careful with stacking, as you can't simply draft the entire Dallas Stars roster and press play; there's got to be a balance between careful stacks and spreading out your talent between teams so you're not stuck with very few players playing on any given day.

Injured Reserve

Similarly to the real NHL, fantasy usually has one Injured Reserve slot, sometimes two or more. You can only stash a player here when he's nursing an injury. This allows you to add an extra player in that guy's place, which is useful because some points is better than none points.

Do not use an IR slot on a player with a season-ending injury. Drop him and move on. If the player is out long-term as in months, but not the season, it's a play-by-ear situation. You will likely be able to drop said player and pick them up when they're healthy again. IR is best used for shorter-term injuries (think 1-3 weeks) or on players who you cannot or are unwilling to drop (think Mitch Marner last season).

Playing the Waiver Wire

The main mistake many make is that they draft, then "set and forget", walking away in October and coming back in March or April. This won't win you championships. I generally try to check my rosters daily and move players on and off the bench and IR as necessary - remember, benched players don't score, and not everyone is playing every night. You can set lineups for weeks in advance if you like, which is convenient if you don't want to check every day. Personally, I think of it as a little break-time ritual to go through my leagues and set myself up for success. Unless you're in a crazy amount of leagues, it shouldn't take you more than 5 minutes or so to bench and unbench players and then figure out your IR and streaming situations.

That reminds me, streaming. What's streaming? "Streaming" is a tactic used to pick up extra points from a single roster spot. Remember how I mentioned the IR earlier? Well, when you put a player on IR, you open up a free spot in your lineup for a free agent. But free agents don't play every day. You can cycle free agents daily - if the Sabres are playing today and tomorrow, I'll grab Jason Zucker for the back-to-back, then drop him when he's not playing for Garnet Hathaway of the Flyers, for example. Watch the schedule for back-to-backs, but also watch for opponents. I'd rather have Jonathan Huberdeau against a Sharks-Ducks back-to-back versus Tomas Hertl against a Stars-Leafs one. Make sure, however, that you keep an eye on matchup acquisitions as well. Most leagues only let you pick up a certain number of players a week, and nothing ruins your day more than missing out on a great streaming option because you used all those acquisitions by Thursday.

Also note that you can no longer add/drop players for the day, including IR movements, after the FIRST game of the day starts. Sometimes, with the Global Series or weekend games, this will be early in the day, so make sure to get your streaming done as early as you can (or even the night before) so you don't miss out.

Keep an eye on the standings and how teams are doing. If the Predators are in the middle of an 18-game point streak because Barry Trotz cancelled U2 at the Sphere again, you might want to pick some of them up. If the Sharks are in the middle of a miserable stretch of hockey, you might want to pick up their opposing goaltenders (remember when I mentioned streaming earlier when talking about backups, this is what I mean).

Keep an eye on lines and how they're utilized. Your Connor Brown late-draft flyer is great, as long as he's playing with McDavid and scoring consistently. He's on the fourth line and not scoring? Might want to move off him. Similarly, if there's a player who's getting increased time and a better role, keep an eye on him too, and be ready to pounce.

Keep track of who's getting powerplay time as well - if Timo Meier isn't on PP1, he's not scoring at such a high clip. Unless you're the Penguins, powerplays mean points, and whoever's on the first powerplay has a good chance of bringing those points in.

Keep track of who's getting goalie starts too. Did Charlie Lindgren lose the net to Logan Thompson? I'm dropping the former and picking up the latter. There are usually a few of these cases a year; jumping on them early will benefit you greatly.

Be flexible. Is there a player massively breaking out this season who's still a free agent? Pick him up and drop one of your struggling players to do so. There's no use in sentimentality if you're going for a win. Be a Vegas Golden Knights GM and kick players to the curb when they're underperforming. Don't worry, they still have a place in your heart! Just not in your lineup.

Trades

Want a player from a friend? You're going to have to trade for it. Trades work similarly to in the real NHL, just without picks (as long as you're not in a keeper league). You'll need to reach out to the friend in question and engineer a trade you both agree to. No swapping Leon Draisaitl for Pat Maroon - if you see a trade that's clearly cheating like that, you should be able to bring it up to your league manager and fellow teammates to veto it.

But to trades more generally - I personally don't trade very much, preferring instead to stream for extra points. However, if there are certain players I want, or certain players I want to move off of and get a return, that's when I trade. Again, both parties must agree, so you need to convince your friend that you're giving them a sweet deal, which is part of the fun! Can you sell Jeff Skinner for Tom Wilson? You sure can try! This is another reason why "setting and forgetting" doesn't work too well - you can miss out on valuable trades that can boost your team in the short or long-term.

Playoffs

The playoffs in fantasy don't actually occur during the Stanley Cup playoffs. They're in the last few weeks of the regular season. This is for hopefully obvious reasons (half the teams being gone in the playoffs). Check your league for how many teams get to make the playoffs and how many don't - if you intend to have a playoff team, you need to know how many people you need to beat. Additionally, check to see how the scoring works during the playoffs. Some leagues do two-week matchups during the playoffs; others only do one. Knowing that is important to planning how you want to line up your players.

If you don't make the playoffs, no worries! You should be able to take part in the consolation ladder. Ditto if you're knocked out early, so don't give up hope if your first-round matchup isn't going as planned.

During the last few days of the playoffs, players will be playing their final games. Obvious, right? But this opens up another streaming avenue (at least, if you're not in a keeper league). Let me explain: the Avs this season have their final game on April 13. All other teams end between the 15th and 17th. There's no point in keeping Artturi Lehkonen or Alexandar Georgiev past April 13, as they won't be playing in games anyway. Drop them on the 14th and bring in fresh blood for the final push. Some points is better than none points!

Well, class is dismissed! If you have any other questions, see me during office hours with an ask or drop me a DM, either on Tumblr or Discord (same username).

If my schedule allows, I will try to actually stream a mock draft or few onto a Youtube channel and comment while I do said drafting, probably next weekend (August 30 - September 1). This may help you understand the thought process behind a successful draft! But that's to be determined. If that's something you'd like to see, let me know so I'll make sure to do it. If I do it, I'll give y'all a heads-up as to when the stream is so you can catch it live, as well as a link to the VOD.

[stereax]

hi! I'm a casual hockey fan geographically tied to PIT, can you explain why people (at least as far as I've seen) are so excited for the Cody Glass trade? I know we've been terrible lately and could use all the help we can get, but does he fill a particular niche that we need filled or is it just new blood frenzy? thanks for everything you do! 💙

Hi there anon! I'll just point you to this article to start...

The good news about Glass is that at 25-years old, he could possibly be the youngest forward on the team next season (Valtteri Puustinen is two months younger). Glass also had a 14-goal, 35-point season in 2022-23 for the Predators.

And this:

I think it's mostly fresh blood. Glass has some potential, and definitely was a bad fit with the Brunette system, but to expect him to be more than a bottom sixer is silly imo at this point in his career.

However, it's notable that Pittsburgh basically got Glass and some picks for free. Nashville needed the cap room, so they tied picks to Glass in exchange for an ECHLer. That being said, that's the second cap dump Pittsburgh has accepted and a strong sign that they don't intend to be competing in Crosby's twilight years.

That being said, if you can get 22-23 Glass back, that's a 0.5ppg player, which is solid as a third liner. So there is upside, it's not like they picked up an abysmal player. We'll see how it shakes out though!

[stereax]

Any scorching hot takes on which top team will drop like a rock next season? Or if you're not feeling spicy, any 4 nations thoughts? Could be anything: positional depth/roster speculation/line comps/which team would win the tumblr hotness poll, etc. Personally I'm very curious which Cs stay Cs and which Cs become Ws

I'm not gonna touch 4 Nations yet because I don't know anything about that, especially because, iirc, they only have six players on each roster right now? I don't want to speculate who goes and who doesn't just yet because, knowing my luck, I'm gonna get half the teams injured just talking about that lol.

But! Hot takes on which teams will do WORSE than last season. This, I CAN do! Under the cut!

Now, I don't think any teams will "drop like a rock" - part of the parity of the NHL means that teams that are good usually stay good for a while and teams that are not usually stay not. A Devils-esque complete collapse is only going to happen if there's massive injuries (like the Devils had) and trade hell (like the Devils again had - there was a deal in place for Markstrom a long time back but it got nixed by Flames ownership, for example). That being said...

I think the New York Rangers is the obvious answer here. They haven't added anyone of note (depth defensemen don't count) in a league where just about every other team has gotten demonstrably better. Part of this is due to the issues surrounding moving Trouba's contract, which made them unable to jump on free agents on July 1. This, coupled with the issue of Goodrow and the waivers situation, has shown many across the league that the Rangers organization does not intend to honor NMCs and NTCs, which is a strong blow against them. But they'll still be a good team, partially because of Shesty and Quick and partially because the Metro isn't exactly the best conference in the league. (Only the Rangers, Carolina, and New Jersey seem any good, and Carolina went through its own gutting of its entire second pair, but because they're the Canes they'll make Walker and Gostisbehere Norris candidates. The Isles are mid and didn't address it, the Flyers are stuck between trying for a wildcard and tanking, the Pens have no supporting cast, the Caps just acquired Dubois which is all I need to say about them really, and don't even talk about the Jackets...)

You also have the Vegas Golden Knights, who lost basically all of their UFAs and, due to their cap crunch, didn't gain much from it outside of Alex Holtz, who's a project forward. The Pacific, however, is weak as balls. (Calgary and San Jose will be bad; Anaheim, Seattle, and LA will be mid; Vancouver will be pretty good; Edmonton will be very good.) Simply based off goaltending and defense, as well as very good center depth, Vegas should still be okay enough to make the playoffs, and we all know the famous Vegas Trade can happen too, which always makes it interesting. (In the Pacific, Calgary as well is probably going to take a massive step back. Everyone worth a damn was put out for a fire sale. I'd fully expect them to be in the Hagens sweepstakes. And Seattle's a mess...)

Another team that's gonna have problems is the Boston Bruins. Not that they'll be bad. We know they'll never truly suck. But they've got question marks floating around their lineup, from Korpisalo and Swayman (one was statistically a bottom five goalie in the league last year and the other isn't under contract right now; the point of shedding Ullmark's cap hit was to have a cheap backup like Bussi and not a major question mark with a large cap hit for a backup) to Zadorov and Lindholm (arguably both overpaid and both expected to be top line players; those contracts will not age well) to Marchand (he's not getting any younger and who knows how much he's got left in the tank, especially since this is his contract year). There are going to be some major growing pains. I would not be surprised if they start slow, fire Montgomery, and then still end up as the second seed in the Atlantic.

From the Central, I'm gonna pick the St Louis Blues. They signed Ryan Suter in the year of our Lord Stanley 2024. And took on two cap dumps in Radek Faksa and Mathieu Joseph. That's all I need to say.

Y'know what. Let me just do Way Too Early Predictions again.

This is how I see it. (Atlantic, Central, Metro, Pacific)

Draft lottery: CBJ, CGY, CHI, MTL, SJS

Hockey purgatory: ANA, BUF, OTT, PHI, PIT, SEA, STL, WSH

Wildcard tossups: DET, LAK, MIN, NYI, TBL, UTA, WPG

Playoff teams: BOS, CAR, COL, DAL, EDM, FLA, NJD, NSH, NYR, TOR, VAN, VGK

I would not be surprised if both WCs in the East go to Atlantic teams and both WCs in the West go to Central teams. At the same time, I'm having a really hard time seeing any bona fide Cup contender. Last year, from literally last July, the Panthers seemed to be head-and-shoulders THE team to beat. This year, there's nobody like that, at least to me. Everyone has some question marks.

"But Edmonton - " Edmonton is in cap hell, still having to resign Broberg and Holloway and already being over the cap. Plus, Skinner is not that good. Plus, Ekholm and Bouchard can't carry the defense. Plus, McDavid and Draisaitl can't carry the offense. Give me a break.

But yeah. Sorry for the delay here! I hope this answers your question - let me know if you have any other questions or follow-ups :)