Iran Warns US... NUKES ARE ON THE TABLE
299,707 views Apr 5, 2025 #militarystrategy#militarydevelopments#militaryanalysisTrump has threatened to bomb Iran if it refuses direct nuclear talks, calling for action “like nothing they’ve ever seen.” In response, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Khamenei warned that any attack could push Iran to pursue nuclear weapons. Khamenei echoed the warning in his Eid remarks, vowing a “strong reciprocal blow” if the U.S. or Israel initiates any aggression. Iran is now closer than ever to weapons-grade uranium, enriching to 60% U-235 and installing high-powered centrifuges. Experts say it could build a nuclear weapon in under four months. With U.S. bombers deployed to Diego Garcia and Russia publicly backing Iran, the risk of nuclear escalation in the Middle East has surged.
Transcript
0:00If U.S. President Donald Trump bombs Iran, nuclear weapons are on the table. That’s the stark message
0:06Iran is delivering to Trump following his threats to bomb Iran if it doesn’t agree to direct
0:10negotiations over the country’s nuclear program. This single statement has the potential to
0:15completely shake up the power balance of the Middle East. However, it also places Iran on
0:20a direct collision course with the U.S. in a nuclear battle that it has no hope of winning.
0:26Let’s start with Khamenei’s threat. On March 31, media reported on a speech
0:30given by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Wah-Ha-Meh-Ne-E) to mark the end of Ramadan,
0:35which is the Islamic fasting month. “[The US and Israel] threaten to attack us,
0:40which we don't think is very probable, but if they commit any mischief they will surely
0:44receive a strong reciprocal blow” Iran’s Supreme Leader claimed in his Eid al-Fitr
0:49remarks. “If it is carried out, they will definitely receive a strong counterattack.”
0:53On April 1, France24 then reported on remarks that Ali Larijani, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader,
1:00made on Iranian state TV. “We are not moving towards [nuclear] weapons,” the advisor claimed.
1:06“But if you do something wrong in the Iranian nuclear issue, you will force Iran to move
1:10towards that because it has to defend itself. Iran does not want this. But it will have no choice.
1:16Khamenei’s advisor continued. “If at some point you – meaning the U.S. – move towards bombing
1:21by yourself or through Israel, you will force Iran to make a different decision.”
1:26These statements, made by both Khamenei and his trusted advisor, begs the question:
1:31why is Iran making nuclear threats now? For one, Trump is claiming that the U.S.
1:36is preparing to bomb Iran. In March, Trump sent a letter to Iran demanding that the country come to
1:41the table to negotiate a new nuclear deal with the U.S. Some might have seen this letter as a strange
1:47demand. After all, it was Trump who pulled the U.S. out of a previous deal with Iran – The Joint
1:53Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA – during his first term as U.S. President. That deal,
1:59negotiated by the administration of President Barack Obama, saw Iran agree to limit its uranium
2:05enrichment activities to such a low level that it wouldn’t be capable of producing a nuke, as well
2:10as agree to limit its purchases of centrifuges needed for that enrichment process. In return,
2:16Iran received relief from sanctions that were costing the country’s economy billions of dollars.
2:21The U.S. was one of the original signatories of the JCPOA, along with China, Russia,
2:26France, and the U.K. However, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal in 2018,
2:31preferring instead to reimplement sanctions that have had a devastating effect on Iran’s economy.
2:37By February 2021, those U.S. sanctions had cost Iran about $1 trillion. So, that seems like a
2:44win for the U.S. However, the withdrawal from JCPOA also meant that the most important nuclear
2:50nation in the deal couldn’t impact it anymore. China and Russia both have ties with Iran – with
2:55the latter growing closer to Iran since Putin launched his supposed “special
3:00military operation” in Ukraine – meaning they wouldn’t act as much of a deterrent.
3:04France and the U.K. combine to have around 500 nukes of their own,
3:08but they simply didn’t bring as much influence to the table as the United States.
3:12The result of Trump’s JCPOA withdrawal was that Iran started breaking the terms of the
3:17deal. Its justification was that the U.S. had already broken the deal – its new sanctions
3:23were the opposite of the relief it expected – so it should be free to renew its nuclear program.
3:29Trump’s March letter seeking direct negotiations with Iran was met with a swift refusal by the
3:34country. Iran claimed that it couldn’t trust the U.S. to keep its word in any direct negotiations,
3:40though it also proposed the possibility of indirect negotiations via intermediaries in
3:45Oman. That won’t work for the U.S. As the IRAM Center points out, Iran and Oman have
3:50strong military ties that see them frequently engage in joint military exercises, meaning it
3:55wouldn’t be a neutral mediator. The U.S. believes Iran could manipulate Oman into helping it secure
4:01the best possible deal for itself, which runs counter to what Trump wants to achieve.
4:06Trump’s response was to deliver the most direct military threat the
4:09U.S. has made toward Iran in years. On March 30, he said that if Iran,
4:13“doesn’t make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they
4:17have never seen before.” That threat led to an immediate condemnation from Iranian Foreign
4:21Minister Esmail Baghaei (Es-Mah-Il Bag-Ha-E). “The explicit threat of bombing Iran by the head of a
4:25country is a clear contradiction to the essence of international peace and security,” said the
4:31minister. “Such a threat is a gross violation of the United Nations charter and a violation
4:36of the International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards regime. Violence brings violence
4:41and peace creates peace. America can choose.” Remarks by the Supreme Leader and his advisor
4:47followed just a couple of days later. Trump’s direct threats of a bombing
4:50campaign may be the primary reason for Iran’s threats of putting nukes on the table. However,
4:56it’s not the only one. As Baghaei implied in his remarks, Iran believes that the U.S.
5:00threat is a case of a country throwing stones in a glass house. This view is reinforced by
5:05comments made by Senior Commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps General Amirali
5:10Hajizadeh (Am-E-Rah-Lee Why-E-Zah-Day). “The Americans have at least 10 bases in the region
5:13around Iran, and they have 50,000 troops,” the general claimed. “Someone who is in a
5:18glass room shouldn’t throw stones at anyone.” Hajizadeh has a point. In fact, his numbers,
5:24at least when it comes to bases, may even be generous. According to Al Jazeera,
5:28the U.S. maintains 10 military bases in Saudi Arabia, though they’re staffed by just 381 troops.
5:34The 10 bases it has in Kuwait brings the total up to 20, with another 13 U.S. bases being in Turkey.
5:41We also can’t ignore the current presence of U.S. warships, including the aircraft
5:45carrier the Harry S. Truman, in the Red Sea or America’s recent decision to move around half of
5:51its nuclear-capable B-2 Spirit bomber fleet to the remote base of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
5:57All of these bases offer routes into Iran for the United States and are used by the U.S. to
6:02maintain its influence over the Middle East. The general’s point is that the U.S. is making
6:07threats against Iran because Iran is trying to do the same thing the U.S. does. That’s just as
6:12relevant to power projection in the Middle East as it is to the notion of Iran having nuclear
6:17weapons in the first place. It’s one rule for the U.S. and another for the rest of the world,
6:22according to Iran, which is what allows Trump to make his bombing threats. Iran’s message is
6:27that it’s had enough of that power balance and is willing to respond by pushing the nuclear button.
6:32But while Iran can make all of the threats about a nuclear response that it wants,
6:36is the country even capable of launching a nuke if it feels that the time calls for it?
6:41The short answer is no. At least, not yet.
6:44Iran doesn’t have access to any nuclear weapons. That’s according to The Council
6:48on Foreign Relations, which confirms that Iran has no nukes while adding that “it has a long
6:53history of engaging in secret nuclear weapons research in violation of its international
6:58commitments.” One of those commitments is the JCPOA, which Iran started ignoring after Trump
7:03withdrew from the deal in 2018. And the breakdown of that deal may have brought
7:08it closer to having a nuclear weapon than many in the international community might want to admit.
7:13How close? Iran may be just
7:15months away if it steps up its nuclear program. Iran Watch points out that Trump’s decision to
7:20remove the U.S. from the JCPOA sparked several violations of the agreement from Iran’s end. These
7:26violations began in July 2019, around a year after Trump’s withdrawal decision, and saw Iran start to
7:32enrich uranium above the 3.67% Uranium U-235 limit set by the JCPOA. That’s important because U-235
7:42is the isotope that makes a nuclear detonation possible. Most modern nukes have U-235 enriched
7:48to 90% U-235, though it’s possible to build a nuke with just 25% enrichment. As of April 2021,
7:56Iran was at the point where it was enriching Uranium to 60% U-235, which Iran Watch says
8:02means it’s done 90% of the work needed to get its uranium to the appropriate levels.
8:07Iran has also been acquiring and installing IR-2 and IR-6 centrifuges in its nuclear production
8:14facilities since the U.S. broke away from the JCPOA. These centrifuges are key to the
8:20uranium enrichment process and it’s from these components that Iran Watch determines its months
8:25away numbers. The resource says that Iran could build a nuclear weapon in just four months if it
8:30has 3,000 IR-2m centrifuges operating at full capacity. If it has 3,000 IR-6 centrifuges,
8:38that time is slashed to less than three months, with Iran being capable of building
8:42five nuclear weapons inside a year. Does Iran have those centrifuges?
8:46We have no real idea, because of the secrecy surrounding its nuclear program and its refusal
8:51to cooperate with the other signatories of the JCPOA now the U.S. has pulled away.
8:57The Institute for Science and International Security paints an even grimmer picture of
9:01Iran’s nuclear capabilities. “The unfortunate reality is that Iran already knows how to build
9:07nuclear weapons, although there are some unfinished tasks related to the actual
9:11construction of them,” the group says. It says several of the “tent poles” Iran needs
9:15to make nuking an enemy possible are already in place. It knows how to enrich uranium to
9:20the appropriate level. Iran also has delivery systems, including nuclear-capable missiles,
9:26ready to go. It only needs to figure out how to properly weaponize its weapons-grade uranium,
9:31which involves further development and testing. Assuming Iran accelerates its nuclear program
9:37in response to U.S. threats, it’s possible that this weaponization could be achieved
9:41before the end of 2025. And back in January 2025, The Telegraph reported that Iran was
9:48working alongside North Korea to develop nuclear missiles capable of traveling up to 1,864 miles.
9:55“Tehran has never been as weak and vulnerable as it is today,” said National Council of Resistance
10:00of Iran, or NCRI, representative Soona Samsami (Show-Ona Sham-Sah-Me) at the time. “The desperate
10:07Iranian regime is speeding up the development of nuclear weapons. Now is the time to hold the
10:12regime accountable for internal killings, regional warmongering, and nuclear weapons development.”
10:17It's a little over two months since Samsami made those comments and holding Iran accountable is
10:22precisely what Trump is trying to do. That’s why he’s attacking the Houthis in Yemen. Trump’s goal
10:28here is to cut the head off a group that Iran uses as proxies for achieving its regional
10:32goals. It’s also why he’s using bombing threats to force Iran to come to the table. However,
10:37these threats seem to be pushing Iran into the acceleration of a nuclear program that
10:42is already fairly close to completion. Still, “close” doesn’t mean “ready.”
10:46Iran can’t launch one of its own nuclear weapons at the United States right now, at least if
10:51reporting about the full extent of its nuclear program is accurate. But if that’s the case,
10:57how can the country be making nuclear threats? The U.S. could bomb it into oblivion, targeting Iran’s
11:02nuclear facilities in the process, before Iran is ready to press the nuclear button.
11:07But Iran may have a nuclear trick up its sleeve: Russia.
11:10On April 1, Russia warned of “catastrophic” consequences for the U.S. if it follows
11:15through on bombing Iran. “Threats are indeed being heard, ultimatums are also being heard,”
11:21claimed Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov (Sir-Guy Ree-Ab-Cove). “We consider such
11:26methods inappropriate, we condemn them, we consider them a way for the U.S. to impose
11:30its will on the Iranian side.” The message was followed by a claim that Russia would be
11:34happy to serve as a mediator between Iran and the U.S., though neither side has responded.
11:39A couple of days later, Russia cemented its support of Iran in the nuclear conflict by again
11:45threatening vague consequences. The country’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
11:50(Zhack-Ha-Ro-Vah) said, “The use of military force by Iran’s adversaries in the context of political
11:54resolution is illegal and unacceptable. External threats to bomb Iran’s nuclear
12:00energy infrastructure would inevitably lead to far-reaching and irreversible consequences.”
12:05Did Russia just suggest it might provide Iran with nuclear weapons if the U.S. bombs?
12:10Not in so many words, but we can’t ignore the fact that Russia’s comments come at the same
12:14time as nuclear threats coming out of Iran. Of course, we also can’t ignore the hypocrisy at
12:20play here. Russia is condemning a U.S. plan to supposedly bomb Iranian energy infrastructure
12:25at a time when its President Vladimir Putin is raining bombs down on Ukraine. The country also
12:31signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran in January 2025, further allying itself with
12:37America’s most recent enemy. Russia is also no stranger
12:40to making nuclear threats of its own. Since Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022,
12:46he’s made almost constant threats or implications regarding Russia’s potential use of nuclear
12:51weapons. United 24 Media published a timeline of these threats. Immediately after the invasion,
12:57Putin announced that he was placing Russia on nuclear alert. He’s constantly warned of countries
13:02facing consequences beyond any they could imagine if they help Ukraine, which mirrors Russia’s
13:07threats now regarding Iran. April 2022 saw Russia warn that it would deploy nuclear-capable
13:13hypersonic missiles if Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Both did, and it seems like Russia did
13:19nothing. A year later, Russia was claiming that the risk of nuclear conflict was at its highest
13:23level since the Cold War. Putin's mouthpiece Dmitry Medvedev (Med-Veh-Dev) threatened Ukraine,
13:28the U.K., Germany, and the U.S. with nuclear weapons in February 2024. The list goes on.
13:35Now, does this mean that Russia may be about to arm Iran with nuclear weapons?
13:39Well, it certainly could. The Arms Control Association notes that Russia
13:43has 5,580 nuclear weapons, only 1,549 of which are already strategically deployed.
13:51That leaves a stockpile of over 4,000 tactical nuclear weapons, some of which could feasibly
13:56find their way into Iran to back the country’s threat of bringing nuclear weapons to the table.
14:01Even if Russia doesn’t contribute nukes directly, we have no idea just how much advice it's giving
14:06Iran in its quest to build its own warheads. The countries have a long history of nuclear
14:11cooperation. That cooperation started in the 1990s as Iran recovered from its war with Iraq. Russia
14:17assisted Iran – alongside China and Pakistan – to help the country move its nuclear program forward.
14:23That work supposedly concluded in 1995, and focused on helping Iran build nuclear reactors,
14:29but Russia likely continued to help Iran through much of the 1990s according to Iran Watch.
14:35And even though Russia was a signatory of the JCPOA we mentioned earlier, that doesn’t change
14:40the fact that Iran has a track record of turning to Russia when it needs nuclear help. Could it be
14:45doing the same again now that it’s under threat from the U.S.? The comments from Khamenei and
14:49his advisor suggest it might be, with Russia’s condemnation of the U.S. adding fuel to that fire.
14:55Even if Russia doesn’t provide nuclear weapons to Iran directly, it can justify supporting the
15:00country’s nuclear program under the two countries' strategic defense cooperation agreement.
15:06So what happens if Iran actually ends up getting its hands on a nuclear weapon?
15:10For one, the threat of bringing nukes to the table will become very real very fast. Even so,
15:15Iran wouldn’t be able to compete with the U.S. on the nuclear level. The one or two warheads it
15:20might have would pale in comparison to the 5,225 much more powerful nuclear weapons the U.S. brings
15:27to the table. That means we’re not going to see Iran launch its nukes against the U.S.,
15:31even if it wants to. The threat of reprisal is too great and Iran doesn’t have the
15:36missiles needed to hit the U.S. anyway. But perhaps the threat of bringing nuclear
15:40weapons to the table is less about the U.S. and more about Iran restoring its
15:44power projection in the Middle East. After all, the past few months have seen
15:48it essentially lose Hamas and Hezbollah to the Israeli war effort. It’s in the
15:53process of losing the Houthis thanks to U.S. airstrikes and it’s witnessed the fall of the
15:57former Syrian regime that it once counted as an ally. To Iran, acquiring a nuclear weapon
16:02allows it to threaten the Middle East, which in turn presents an indirect threat to the U.S.
16:07Bomb us and we’ll use a nuclear weapon on one of your allies, the Iranian threat seems to imply.
16:12If nothing else, Iran obtaining a nuke would give it a much more powerful deterrent against Israel
16:17as that country ramps up its Gaza campaign in the wake of a failed ceasefire. It would also
16:22put a dent in the U.S.’s attempts to control the Middle East narrative. Iran wouldn’t even need to
16:28launch nukes; simply having them could be enough to force the U.S. into slowing down on its bombing
16:32rhetoric, which gives the vulnerable Iranian regime time to breathe and consider its next move.
16:38It's also possible that this entire situation will be averted.
16:42Though Trump is outwardly pushing Iran toward direct nuclear negotiations,
16:46which is why he made his bombing threats in the first place, he also appears to be privately
16:50considering Iran’s offer of indirect talks. It’s unlikely that Oman will be the destination for
16:55those discussions. But according to Axios on April 2, the White House is still engaged in
17:00a heavy debate about whether a nuclear deal is possible and how that deal could be achieved.
17:06All the rest of the world can do is wait and see what happens.
17:09One thing is for certain. Iran has just kicked up its nuclear rhetoric at a time when it faces the
17:14greatest threat to its Middle East influence in several decades. Whether that rhetoric is serious
17:19or not, the U.S. has been placed on notice. Trump now has the nuclear problem to consider before he
17:25follows through on his threats of bombing Iran. But what do you think about this situation? Are
17:30Iran’s nuclear threats credible? Is it possible that Russia will help Iran behind the scenes?
17:35How will the U.S. respond now that nuclear weapons are on the table? Let us know your
17:40thoughts in the comments below and remember to subscribe to The Military Show for more
17:44up-to-date commentary on the situation in the Middle East. We’re an independent source of news
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